Dataset Information

The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries.

ABSTRACT: The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries. Despite wide variations across countries, results confirm the adverse impacts of the crisis, with a total 27.2 and 22.3 million more people pushed into poverty and hunger, respectively. Agrifood systems and poverty are more vulnerable to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, whereas hunger and diet quality are more affected by higher food prices.

SUBMITTER: Arndt C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10015268 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries.

Arndt Channing C Diao Xinshen X Dorosh Paul P Pauw Karl K Thurlow James J

Global food security 20230301

The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries. Despite wide variations across countries, results confir ...[more]

PMID: 36937378

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Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding how patent expirations affect drug prices is crucial because price changes directly inform accurate cost-effectiveness assessments. This study investigates the association between patent expirations and drug prices in 8 high-income countries and evaluates how the changes affect cost-effectiveness assessments.ObjectiveTo analyze how the expiration of drug patents is associated with drug price changes and to assess the implications of these price changes for cost-effectiveness evaluations.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study performed an event study design using data from 8 high-income countries to assess the association between patent expiration and drug prices, and created a simulation model to understand the implications for cost-effectiveness analyses. The simulation cost-effectiveness model analyzed the implications of including or ignoring postpatent price dynamics.ExposureDrug patent expiration.Main outcomes and measuresChange in drug prices and differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios when considering vs ignoring postpatent price dynamics.ResultsThe sample comprised 505 drugs undergoing patent expiration in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, UK, and US. Price decreases were statistically significant over the 8 years after patent expiration, with the fastest price declines observed in the US: 32% (95% CI, 24%-39%) in year 1 after patent expiration and 82% (95% CI, 71%-89%) in the 8 years after patent expiration. Estimates for other nations ranged from a decrease of 64% in Australia to 18% in Switzerland in the 8 years after expiration. The cost-effectiveness simulation model indicated that not accounting for generic entry into the market may produce biased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 40% to -40%, depending on the scenario.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cohort study demonstrate that drug prices were reduced substantially after patent expirations in high-income countries. Therefore, incorporating information on patent status and pricing dynamics in cost-effectiveness assessment analyses is necessary for producing accurate economic evaluations of new drugs.

Project description:IntroductionOn 24 February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale offensive in Ukraine, resulting in significant casualties to civilians, including children. As part of a seven-stream trauma education initiative, a novel pediatric trauma fundamentals course (PTF) was developed to provide standalone pediatric trauma education by our academic/NGO partnership. The objective of the program was to develop, implement, and evaluate a novel PTF educational course in the active armed conflict zone of Ukraine.MethodsA novel two-day PTF course was internally developed, translated into Ukrainian, and implemented across eight Oblasts (regions) in Ukraine from November 2022 to December 2023. Participants completed pre-and post-assessments in knowledge and self-confidence, and critical skills were assessed against objective skill checklists. Change in knowledge and self-confidence were analyzed, respectively, with the nonparametric Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test and McNemar's test for paired data. Anonymous course evaluations were solicited after each course. Six to eight-week follow-up surveys were conducted to assess skill utilization and stewardship.ResultsFour hundred and forty-six Ukrainian health care providers were trained during 30 courses across 8 Oblasts in Ukraine during the intervention period. Aggregated knowledge and self-confidence significantly improved across all measures. Ukrainian instructors of courses received higher raw scores across all evaluation points on instructor feedback surveys as compared to international instructors. Six to eight-week follow-up surveys demonstrated participants had positive views of the training, have used the training on patients, and have taught the material to other health care providers.DiscussionOur novel PTF intervention demonstrates a successful partnership-based model for implementing pediatric trauma education in an active conflict zone in Ukraine. Challenges to implementing such programs can be mitigated through strategic partnership-based models between academic institutions and organizations with local knowledge and expertise. Ukrainian instructors provide course experiences similar or superior to international instructors, likely due to multiple factors related to language, culture, and context.

Dataset Information

The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries.

Publications

The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries.

Similar Datasets

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