Dataset Information

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability.

ABSTRACT: While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr^-1 since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with internal variability in simulations. A large fraction of the residuals is consistent with wind driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that this ongoing acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability.

SUBMITTER: Dangendorf S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10086026 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability.

Dangendorf Sönke S Hendricks Noah N Sun Qiang Q Klinck John J Ezer Tal T Frederikse Thomas T Calafat Francisco M FM Wahl Thomas T Törnqvist Torbjörn E TE

Nature communications 20230410 1

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr<sup>-1</sup> since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal ...[more]

PMID: 37037819

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Project description:The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida's Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

Project description:BackgroundStyrene is an established neurotoxicant at occupational levels, but effects at levels relevant to the general population have not been studied. We examined the neurologic effects of environmental styrene exposure among U.S. Gulf coast residents.MethodsWe used National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) 2011 estimates of ambient styrene concentrations to assign exposure levels for 21,962 non-diabetic Gulf state residents, and additionally measured blood styrene concentration in a subset of participants (n = 874). Neurologic symptoms, as well as detailed covariate information, were ascertained via telephone interview. We used log-binomial regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for cross-sectional associations between both ambient and blood styrene levels and self-reported neurologic symptoms. We estimated associations independently for ten unique symptoms, as well as for the presence of any neurologic, central nervous system (CNS), or peripheral nervous system (PNS) symptoms. We also examined heterogeneity of associations with estimated ambient styrene levels by race and sex.ResultsOne-third of participants reported at least one neurologic symptom. The highest quartile of estimated ambient styrene was associated with one or more neurologic (PR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07,1.18), CNS (PR, 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11,1.25), and PNS (PR, 1.16; 95% CI: 1.09,1.25) symptom. Results were less consistent for biomarker analyses, but blood styrene level was suggestively associated with nausea (PR, 1.78; 95% CI: 1.04, 3.03). In stratified analyses, we observed the strongest effects among non-White participants.ConclusionsIncreasing estimated ambient styrene concentration was consistently associated with increased prevalence of neurologic symptoms. Associations between blood styrene levels and some neurologic symptoms were suggestive. Environmental styrene exposure levels may be sufficient to elicit symptomatic neurotoxic effects.

Dataset Information

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability.

Publications

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability.

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