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Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton.

ABSTRACT: A major premise of ecological neutral theory is that population size is inversely related to extinction risk. This idea is central to modern biodiversity conservation efforts, which often rely on abundance metrics to partially determine species extinction risk. However, limited empirical studies have tested whether extinction is indeed more probable for species with low abundances. Here we use the fossil record of Neogene radiolaria to test the relationship between relative abundance and longevity (time from first to last occurrence). Our dataset includes abundance histories for 189 polycystine radiolarian species from the Southern Ocean, and 101 species from the tropical Pacific. Using linear regression analyses, we show that neither maximum nor average relative abundance are significant predictors of longevity in either oceanographic region. This suggests that neutral theory fails to explain the plankton ecological-evolutionary dynamics we observe. Extrinsic factors are likely more important than neutral dynamics in controlling radiolarian extinction.

SUBMITTER: Trubovitz S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10203123 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton.

Trubovitz Sarah S Renaudie Johan J Lazarus David D Noble Paula J PJ

Communications biology 20230522 1

A major premise of ecological neutral theory is that population size is inversely related to extinction risk. This idea is central to modern biodiversity conservation efforts, which often rely on abundance metrics to partially determine species extinction risk. However, limited empirical studies have tested whether extinction is indeed more probable for species with low abundances. Here we use the fossil record of Neogene radiolaria to test the relationship between relative abundance and longevi ...[more]

PMID: 37217772

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Project description:Plesiosaurs were a highly successful group of marine reptiles occurring worldwide in the Jurassic and Cretaceous, but to date few studies have focused on their preservation through time. Here, we conduct the first detailed assessment of the quality of the plesiosaur fossil record. Data was compiled for 178 specimens representing 114 valid species. For each species we calculated the character completeness metric (CCM: percentage of phylogenetic characters from a cladistic dataset that can be scored for that species) and the skeletal completeness metric (SCM: percentage of the overall skeleton that is preserved for that species). Average CCM and SCM values were calculated for individual geological stages. A strong significant positive correlation was recovered between CCM and SCM, suggesting that the two metrics are recording the same signal, at least for this clade. Although a significant correlation between changes in sea level and changes in plesiosaur completeness was not recovered, an underlying negative relationship may be present but obscured by poorly sampled time bins. Plesiosaur completeness though time is not significantly correlated with that for contemporary terrestrial groups (sauropods, pterosaurs, birds), but is significantly correlated with that for ichthyosaurs, suggesting common controls on skeletal preservation in the marine realm. Significantly higher median completeness values in plesiosaurs and ichthyosaurs than in contemporary terrestrial groups support the hypothesis that the marine tetrapod fossil record is more complete than that of terrestrial tetrapods. A collector's curve for plesiosaurs shows a generally slow constant rate of discovery from the latter part of the 19th century until the 1990s, at which point the rate of discovery increased substantially and shows no sign of slowing. A significant but very weak negative correlation between SCM and the year in which a taxon was named suggests a weak tendency for more recently named species to have less complete skeletons.

Dataset Information

Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton.

Publications

Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton.

Similar Datasets

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