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Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

ABSTRACT: During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 2015-2019 monthly average age-standardized mortality rates; (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models; (4) Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models. We analyzed deaths due to all-causes, circulatory diseases, cancer, and neurologic/mental disorders. Excess all-cause mortality estimates in 2020 across the four approaches were: +17.2% (2018-2019 average number of deaths), +9.5% (five-year average age-standardized rates), +15.2% (SARIMA), and +15.7% (GEE). For circulatory diseases (strong pre-pandemic decreasing trend), estimates were +7.1%, -4.4%, +8.4%, and +7.2%, respectively. Cancer mortality showed no relevant variations (ranging from -1.6% to -0.1%), except for the simple comparison of age-standardized mortality rates (-5.5%). The neurologic/mental disorders (with a pre-pandemic growing trend) estimated excess corresponded to +4.0%/+5.1% based on the first two approaches, while no major change could be detected based on the SARIMA and GEE models (-1.3%/+0.3%). The magnitude of excess mortality varied largely based on the methods applied to forecast mortality figures. The comparison with average age-standardized mortality rates in the previous five years diverged from the other approaches due to the lack of control over pre-existing trends. Differences across other methods were more limited, with GEE models probably representing the most versatile option.

SUBMITTER: Barbiellini Amidei C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10252246 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

Barbiellini Amidei Claudio C Fedeli Ugo U Gennaro Nicola N Cestari Laura L Schievano Elena E Zorzi Manuel M Girardi Paolo P Casotto Veronica V

International journal of environmental research and public health 20230524 11

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 201 ...[more]

PMID: 37297545

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Project description:RationaleAlthough the health effects of beta carotene have been studied extensively, a systematic examination of serum concentrations and long-term mortality, including cardiovascular disease mortality, has not been reported.ObjectiveExplore whether serum beta carotene is associated with overall and cause-specific mortality and to elucidate the strength and dose-response of the association.Methods and resultsWe conducted a prospective serological analysis of 29 103 men in the ATBC study (Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention). During 31 years of follow-up, 23 796 deaths occurred, including deaths because of cardiovascular disease (9869), cancer (7692), respiratory disease (2161), diabetes mellitus (119), injuries and accidents (1255), and other causes (2700). Serum beta carotene was assayed using high-performance liquid chromatography. Adjusting for major risk factors measured, men with higher serum beta carotene had significantly lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratios=0.81, 0.71, 0.69, and 0.64 for quintile 2 (Q2)-Q5 versus Q1, respectively; Ptrend<0.0001). Serum beta carotene was significantly associated with risk of death from cardiovascular disease, heart disease, stroke, cancer, respiratory disease, diabetes mellitus, injuries and accidents, and other causes (Q5 versus Q1, hazard ratio=0.21-0.73, all Ptrend<0.0001). The all-cause mortality association was not materially impacted by adjustment for fruit and vegetable consumption (albeit, estimated with some measurement error) and was generally similar across subgroups of smoking intensity, alcohol consumption, trial supplementation, and duration of follow-up, but was significantly modified by age, years of smoking, and body mass index, with stronger inverse associations among men who were younger, smoked fewer years, and had a lower body mass index (all Pinteraction≤0.0025).ConclusionsThis study provides evidence that higher beta carotene biochemical status is associated with lower overall, cardiovascular disease, heart disease, stroke, cancer, and other causes of mortality. The dose-response associations over a 30-year period were not attenuated by adjustment for other important risk factors and support greater fruit and vegetable consumption as a means to increase beta carotene status and promote longevity.

Project description:BackgroundThe persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had direct and indirect effects on mortality, making it essential to analyze excess mortality to fully understand the impact of the pandemic. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model using number of deaths from Statistics Korea and analyzed excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 according to age, sex, and dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant period.MethodsNumber of all-cause deaths between 2010 and 2022 were obtained from the annual cause-of-death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. COVID-19 mortality data were acquired from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. A multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effect, stratified by sex and age, was used to estimate the number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The estimated excess mortality rate was calculated.ResultsExcess mortality was not significant between January 2020 and October 2021. However, it started to increase monthly from November 2021 and reached its highest point during the omicron-dominant period. Specifically, in March and April 2022, during the omicron BA.1/BA.2-dominant period, the estimated median values for excess mortality were the highest at 17,634 and 11,379, respectively. Both COVID-19-related deaths and excess mortality increased with age. A notable increase in excess mortality was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. In the context of excess mortality per 100,000 population based on the estimated median values in March 2022, the highest numbers were found among males and females aged ≥ 85 years at 1,048 and 910, respectively.ConclusionThis study revealed that the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic coupled with its high transmissibility not only increased COVID-19-related deaths but also had a significant impact on overall mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Therefore, it is crucial to concentrate healthcare resources and services on the elderly and ensure continued access to healthcare services during pandemics. Establishing an excess mortality monitoring system in the early stages of a pandemic is necessary to understand the impact of infectious diseases on mortality and effectively evaluate pandemic response policies.

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Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

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Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

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