Dataset Information

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

ABSTRACT: Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

SUBMITTER: McCabe R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10256151 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

McCabe Ruth R Whittaker Charles C Sheppard Richard J RJ Abdelmagid Nada N Ahmed Aljaile A Alabdeen Israa Zain IZ Brazeau Nicholas F NF Ahmed Abd Elhameed Abd Elhameed AE Bin-Ghouth Abdulla Salem AS Hamlet Arran A AbuKoura Rahaf R Barnsley Gregory G Hay James A JA Alhaffar Mervat M Koum Besson Emilie E Saje Semira Mitiku SM Sisay Binyam Girma BG Gebreyesus Seifu Hagos SH Sikamo Adane Petros AP Worku Aschalew A Ahmed Yakob Seman YS Mariam Damen Haile DH Sisay Mitike Molla MM Checchi Francesco F Dahab Maysoon M Endris Bilal Shikur BS Ghani Azra C AC Walker Patrick G T PGT Donnelly Christl A CA Watson Oliver J OJ

Science advances 20230609 23

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the ra ...[more]

PMID: 37294754

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Project description:BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

Project description:ObjectivesTo identify the proportion of articles reporting on test accuracy for which the corresponding study had been registered.DesignAnalysis of a consecutive sample of published study reports.ParticipantsPubMed was searched for publications in journals with an impact factor of 5 or higher in May and June 2012. Articles were included if they reported on original studies evaluating the accuracy of one or more diagnostic or prognostic tests or markers against a clinical reference standard in humans.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary outcome was registration of the reported test accuracy study. We additionally explored study characteristics associated with registration.ResultsWe found 1941 references; 351 study reports fulfilled the inclusion criteria, of which 52 studies (15%) had been registered. Of these, 27 (52%) provided a registration number in the publication, and 12 (23%) provided a reference to the publication in the registry. Registration rates were similar for studies on diagnostic versus those on prognostic tests, and among studies on imaging tests versus those on laboratory techniques. Studies reporting some form of industry involvement were more often registered (33%) than studies reporting another source of funding (11%), and studies without a (reported) source of (external) funding (9%; p<0.001). Of the registered studies, 8 (15%) had been registered after completion, 14 were registered before initiation (27%) and 30 (58%) between initiation and completion. Only 16 (31%; 5% of the total sample) had registered the published primary outcome measures before completion.ConclusionsFew test accuracy studies published in higher impact journals are registered. Only 1 in 22 of such studies register their primary outcomes before study completion. Owing to the reasons for registering studies that investigate the cause-and-effect relationship between health-related interventions and health outcomes also apply to test accuracy studies, prospective study registration of these studies should be further promoted among investigators and journal editors.

Project description:IntroductionMisclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories.MethodsThe cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics.ResultsIn 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were "immunodeficiency antibody" (ICD 9: 279-279.1; ICD 10: D80-D80.9) and "immunodeficiency other" (ICD 9: 279, 279.5-279.9; ICD 10: D83-D84.9, D89, D89.8-D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010-012.9; ICD 10: A10-A14, A15-A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25-62% per year) over the most years.ConclusionsCorrecting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.

Dataset Information

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Publications

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

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