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Coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

ABSTRACT: In malaria, individuals are often infected with different parasite strains. The complexity of infection (COI) is defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains in an individual. Changes in the mean COI in a population have been shown to be informative of changes in transmission intensity with a number of probabilistic likelihood and Bayesian models now developed to estimate the COI. However, rapid, direct measures based on heterozygosity or FwS do not properly represent the COI. In this work, we present two new methods that use easily calculated measures to directly estimate the COI from allele frequency data. Using a simulation framework, we show that our methods are computationally efficient and comparably accurate to current approaches in the literature. Through a sensitivity analysis, we characterize how the distribution of parasite densities, the assumed sequencing depth, and the number of sampled loci impact the bias and accuracy of our two methods. Using our developed methods, we further estimate the COI globally from Plasmodium falciparum sequencing data and compare the results against the literature. We show significant differences in the estimated COI globally between continents and a weak relationship between malaria prevalence and COI.

SUBMITTER: Paschalidis A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10310041 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

Paschalidis Aris A Watson Oliver J OJ Aydemir Ozkan O Verity Robert R Bailey Jeffrey A JA

PLoS computational biology 20230609 6

In malaria, individuals are often infected with different parasite strains. The complexity of infection (COI) is defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains in an individual. Changes in the mean COI in a population have been shown to be informative of changes in transmission intensity with a number of probabilistic likelihood and Bayesian models now developed to estimate the COI. However, rapid, direct measures based on heterozygosity or FwS do not properly represent the COI. ...[more]

PMID: 37294835

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Project description:BackgroundMolecular surveillance of infectious diseases allows the monitoring of pathogens beyond the granularity of traditional epidemiological approaches and is well-established for some of the most relevant infectious diseases such as malaria. The presence of genetically distinct pathogenic variants within an infection, referred to as multiplicity of infection (MOI) or complexity of infection (COI) is common in malaria and similar infectious diseases. It is an important metric that scales with transmission intensities, potentially affects the clinical pathogenesis, and a confounding factor when monitoring the frequency and prevalence of pathogenic variants. Several statistical methods exist to estimate MOI and the frequency distribution of pathogen variants. However, a common problem is the quality of the underlying molecular data. If molecular assays fail not randomly, it is likely to underestimate MOI and the prevalence of pathogen variants.Methods and findingsA statistical model is introduced, which explicitly addresses data quality, by assuming a probability by which a pathogen variant remains undetected in a molecular assay. This is different from the assumption of missing at random, for which a molecular assay either performs perfectly or fails completely. The method is applicable to a single molecular marker and allows to estimate allele-frequency spectra, the distribution of MOI, and the probability of variants to remain undetected (incomplete information). Based on the statistical model, expressions for the prevalence of pathogen variants are derived and differences between frequency and prevalence are discussed. The usual desirable asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) are established by rewriting the model into an exponential family. The MLE has promising finite sample properties in terms of bias and variance. The covariance matrix of the estimator is close to the Cramér-Rao lower bound (inverse Fisher information). Importantly, the estimator's variance is larger than that of a similar method which disregards incomplete information, but its bias is smaller.ConclusionsAlthough the model introduced here has convenient properties, in terms of the mean squared error it does not outperform a simple standard method that neglects missing information. Thus, the new method is recommendable only for data sets in which the molecular assays produced poor-quality results. This will be particularly true if the model is extended to accommodate information from multiple molecular markers at the same time, and incomplete information at one or more markers leads to a strong depletion of sample size.

Project description:BackgroundObesity is emerging as a global health problem, with more than one-third of the world's adult population being overweight or obese. In this study, we investigated worldwide population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms).ResultsWe collected a total of 225 obesity-associated SNPs from a public database. Their population-level allele frequencies were derived based on the genotype data from 1000 Genomes Project (phase 3). We used hypergeometric model to assess whether the effect allele at a given SNP is significantly enriched or depleted in each of the 26 populations surveyed in the 1000 Genomes Project with respect to the overall pooled population. Our results indicate that 195 out of 225 SNPs (86.7%) possess effect alleles significantly enriched or depleted in at least one of the 26 populations. Populations within the same continental group exhibit similar allele enrichment/depletion patterns whereas inter-continental populations show distinct patterns. Among the 225 SNPs, 15 SNPs cluster in the first intron region of the FTO gene, which is a major gene associated with body-mass index (BMI) and fat mass. African populations exhibit much smaller blocks of LD (linkage disequilibrium) among these15 SNPs while European and Asian populations have larger blocks. To estimate the cumulative effect of all variants associated with obesity, we developed the personal composite genetic risk score for obesity. Our results indicate that the East Asian populations have the lowest averages of the composite risk scores, whereas three European populations have the highest averages. In addition, the population-level average of composite genetic risk scores is significantly correlated (R2 = 0.35, P = 0.0060) with obesity prevalence.ConclusionsWe have detected substantial population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs. The results will help elucidate the genetic basis which may contribute to population disparities in obesity prevalence.

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Coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

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coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

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