Dataset Information

Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Under the current US kidney allocation system, older candidates receive a disproportionately small share of deceased donor kidneys despite a reserve of potentially usable kidneys that could shorten their wait times. To consider potential health gains from increasing access to kidneys for these candidates, we developed and calibrated a microsimulation model of the transplantation process and long-term outcomes for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates.

Methods

We estimated risk equations for transplant outcomes using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), which contains data on all US transplants (2010-2019). A microsimulation model combined these equations to account for competing events. We calibrated the model to key transplant outcomes and used acceptance sampling, retaining the best-fitting 100 parameter sets. We then examined life expectancy gains from allocating kidneys even of lower quality across patient subgroups defined by age and designated race/ethnicity.

Results

The best-fitting 100 parameter sets (among 4,000,000 sampled) enabled our model to closely match key transplant outcomes. The model demonstrated clear survival benefits for those who receive a deceased donor kidney, even a lower quality one, compared with remaining on the waitlist where there is a risk of removal. The expected gain in survival from receiving a lower quality donor kidney was consistent gains across age and race/ethnic subgroups.

Limitations

Limited available data on socioeconomic factors.

Conclusions

Our microsimulation model accurately replicates a range of key kidney transplant outcomes among older candidates and demonstrates that older candidates may derive substantial benefits from transplantation with lower quality kidneys. This model can be used to evaluate policies that have been proposed to address concerns that the current system disincentivizes deceased donor transplants for older patients.

Highlights

The microsimulation model was consistent with the data after calibration and accurately simulated the transplantation process for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates.There are clear survival benefits for older transplant candidates who receive deceased donor kidneys, even lower quality ones, compared with remaining on the waitlist.This model can be used to evaluate policies aimed at increasing transplantation among older candidates.

SUBMITTER: Kaufmann MB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10330392 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits.

Kaufmann Matthew B MB Tan Jane C JC Chertow Glenn M GM Goldhaber-Fiebert Jeremy D JD

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20230512 5

<h4>Background</h4>Under the current US kidney allocation system, older candidates receive a disproportionately small share of deceased donor kidneys despite a reserve of potentially usable kidneys that could shorten their wait times. To consider potential health gains from increasing access to kidneys for these candidates, we developed and calibrated a microsimulation model of the transplantation process and long-term outcomes for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates.<h4>Methods</h ...[more]

PMID: 37170943

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Project description:ImportanceIn the United States, substantial disparities in access to kidney transplant exist for wait-listed candidates with end-stage renal disease. The implications of transplant centers' willingness to accept kidney offers for access to transplant and mortality outcomes are unknown.ObjectiveTo determine the outcomes for wait-listed kidney transplant candidates after the transplant center's refusal of a deceased donor kidney offer.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study obtained data from the United Network for Organ Sharing Potential Transplant Recipient data set on all deceased donor kidney offers in the United States made between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. The final study cohort included adult patients who were wait-listed for kidney transplant and received at least 1 allograft offer during the study period (N = 280 041). Data analysis was conducted from June 1, 2018, to March 30, 2019.ExposureCandidate state of residence.Main outcomes and measuresWaiting list outcome event groups included received deceased donor allograft, received living donor allograft, died while on the waiting list, removed from the waiting list without a transplant, or still on the waiting list at the end of follow-up.ResultsAmong the 280 041 kidney transplant candidates included in the study, the mean (SD) age at wait-listing was 51.1 (13.1) years, and male patients were predominant (171 517 [61.2%]). In this cohort, 81 750 candidates (29.2%) received a deceased donor kidney allograft, 30 870 (11.0%) received a living donor allograft, 25 967 (9.3%) died while on the waiting list, and 59 359 (21.2%) were removed from the waiting list. Overall, 10 candidates with at least 1 previous allograft offer died each day during the study period. Time to first offer was similar for candidates who received deceased donor kidney allograft compared with those who died while waiting (median [interquartile range {IQR}] time, 79 [16-426] days vs 78 [17-401] days, respectively). Deceased donor allograft recipients had a median of 17 offers (IQR, 6-44) over 422 days (IQR, 106-909 days), whereas candidates who died while waiting received a median of 16 offers (IQR, 6-41) over 651 days (IQR, 304-1117 days). Most kidneys (84%) were declined on behalf of at least 1 candidate before being accepted for transplant. As reported by centers, organ or donor quality concerns accounted for 8 416 474 (92.6%) of all declined offers, whereas offers were infrequently refused because of patient-related factors (232 193 [2.6%]), logistical limitations (49 492 [0.5%]), or other concerns. The odds of death after an offer and the median number of offers received prior to death varied considerably by state.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that transplant candidates appeared to receive a large number of viable deceased donor kidney offers that were refused on their behalf by transplant centers, potentially exacerbating the detrimental consequences of the organ shortage; increased transparency in organ allocation process and decisions may improve patient-centered care and access to kidney transplant.

Project description:Socioeconomically deprived individuals with renal disease are less likely to receive a live-donor kidney transplant than less-deprived individuals. This qualitative study aimed to identify reasons for the observed socioeconomic disparity in live-donor kidney transplantation.A qualitative study using face-to-face in-depth semistructured interviews.A UK tertiary renal referral hospital and transplant centre.Purposive sampling was used to select deceased-donor transplant recipients from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation (SED) (19 participants), followed by a low SED comparison group (13 participants), aiming for maximum diversity in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, primary renal disease and previous renal replacement therapy.Participants were interviewed following their routine transplant clinic review. Interviews were digitally audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were coded using NVivo software and analysed using the constant comparison method described in Grounded Theory.Themes common and distinct to each socioeconomic group emerged. 6 themes appeared to distinguish between individuals from areas of high and low SED. 4 themes were distinct to participants from areas of high SED: (1) Passivity, (2) Disempowerment, (3) Lack of social support and (4) Short-term focus. 2 themes were distinct to the low SED group: (1) Financial concerns and (2) Location of donor.Several of the emerging themes from the high SED individuals relate to an individual's lack of confidence and skill in managing their health and healthcare; themes that are in keeping with low levels of patient activation. Inadequate empowerment of socioeconomically deprived individuals by healthcare practitioners was also described. Financial concerns did not emerge as a barrier from interviews with the high SED group. Interventions aiming to redress the observed socioeconomic inequity should be targeted at both patients and clinical teams to increase empowerment and ensure shared decision-making.

Project description:BackgroundAfrican American (AA) recipients of deceased-donor (DD) kidney transplants (KT) have shorter allograft survival than recipients of other ethnic groups. Reasons for this disparity encompass complex interactions between donors and recipients characteristics.MethodsOutcomes from 3872 AA and 19,719 European American (EA) DDs who had one kidney transplanted in an AA recipient and one in an EA recipient were analyzed. Four donor/recipient pair groups (DRP) were studied, AA/AA, AA/EA, EA/AA, and EA/EA. Survival random forests and Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to rank and evaluate modifying effects of DRP on variables associated with allograft survival. These analyses sought to identify factors contributing to the observed disparities in transplant outcomes among AA and EA DDKT recipients.ResultsTransplant era, discharge serum creatinine, delayed graft function, and DRP were among the top predictors of allograft survival and mortality among DDKT recipients. Interaction effects between DRP with the kidney donor risk index and transplant era showed significant improvement in allograft survival over time in EA recipients. However, AA recipients appeared to have similar or poorer outcomes for DDKT performed after 2010 versus before 2001; allograft survival hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.15 (0.74, 1.76) and 1.07 (0.8, 1.45) for AA/AA and EA/AA, compared to 0.62 (0.54, 0.71) and 0.5 (0.41, 0.62) for EA/EA and AA/EA DRP, respectively. Recipient mortality improved over time among all DRP, except unemployed AA/AAs. Relative to DDKT performed pre-2001, employed AA/AAs had HR = 0.37 (0.2, 0.69) versus 0.59 (0.31, 1.11) for unemployed AA/AA after 2010.ConclusionRelative to DDKT performed before 2001, similar or worse overall DCAS was observed among AA/AAs, while EA/EAs experienced considerable improvement regardless of employment status, KDRI, and EPTS. AA recipients of an AA DDKT, especially if unemployed, had worse allograft survival and mortality and did not appear to benefit from advances in care over the past 20 years.

Project description:Several recipient biomarkers are reported to predict graft dysfunction, but these are not useful in decision making for the acceptance or allocation of deceased donor kidneys; thus, it is necessary to develop donor biomarkers predictive of graft dysfunction. To address this issue, we prospectively enrolled 94 deceased donors and their 109 recipients who underwent transplantation between 2010 and 2013 at 4 Korean transplantation centers. We investigated the predictive values of donor urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), and L-type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP) for reduced graft function (RGF). We also developed a prediction model of RGF using these donor biomarkers. RGF was defined as delayed or slow graft function. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to generate a prediction model, which was internally validated using a bootstrapping method. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the association of biomarkers with 1-year graft function. Notably, donor urinary NGAL levels were associated with donor AKI (P = 0.014), and donor urinary NGAL and L-FABP were predictive for RGF, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of 0.758 and 0.704 for NGAL and L-FABP, respectively. The best-fit model including donor urinary NGAL, L-FABP, and serum creatinine conveyed a better predictive value for RGF than donor serum creatinine alone (P = 0.02). In addition, we generated a scoring method to predict RGF based on donor urinary NGAL, L-FABP, and serum creatinine levels. Diagnostic performance of the RGF prediction score (AUROC 0.808) was significantly better than that of the DGF calculator (AUROC 0.627) and the kidney donor profile index (AUROC 0.606). Donor urinary L-FABP levels were also predictive of 1-year graft function (P = 0.005). Collectively, these findings suggest donor urinary NGAL and L-FABP to be useful biomarkers for RGF, and support the use of a new scoring system based on donor biomarkers to facilitate decision-making in acceptance and allocation of deceased donor kidneys and contribute to maximal organ utilization.

Dataset Information

Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits.

Background

Methods

Results

Limitations

Conclusions

Highlights

Publications

Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits.

Similar Datasets

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