Dataset Information

Prediction of extubation failure among low birthweight neonates using machine learning.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To develop machine learning models predicting extubation failure in low birthweight neonates using large amounts of clinical data.

Study design

Retrospective cohort study using MIMIC-III, a large single-center, open-source clinical dataset. Logistic regression and boosted-tree (XGBoost) models using demographics, medications, and vital sign and ventilatory data were developed to predict extubation failure, defined as reintubation within 7 days.

Results

1348 low birthweight (≤2500 g) neonates who received mechanical ventilation within the first 7 days were included, of which 350 (26%) failed a trial of extubation. The best-performing model was a boosted-tree model incorporating demographics, vital signs, ventilator parameters, and medications (AUROC 0.82). The most important features were birthweight, last FiO₂, average mean airway pressure, caffeine use, and gestational age.

Conclusions

Machine learning models identified low birthweight ventilated neonates at risk for extubation failure. These models will need to be validated across multiple centers to determine generalizability of this tool.

SUBMITTER: Natarajan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10348822 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of extubation failure among low birthweight neonates using machine learning.

Natarajan Annamalai A Lam Grace G Liu Jingyi J Beam Andrew L AL Beam Kristyn S KS Levin Jonathan C JC

Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association 20230107 2

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop machine learning models predicting extubation failure in low birthweight neonates using large amounts of clinical data.<h4>Study design</h4>Retrospective cohort study using MIMIC-III, a large single-center, open-source clinical dataset. Logistic regression and boosted-tree (XGBoost) models using demographics, medications, and vital sign and ventilatory data were developed to predict extubation failure, defined as reintubation within 7 days.<h4>Results</h4>1348 low bi ...[more]

PMID: 36611107

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Project description:IntroductionDetermining the optimal timing for extubation can be challenging in the intensive care. In this study, we aim to identify predictors for extubation failure in critically ill patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe used highly granular data from 3464 adult critically ill COVID patients in the multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, including demographics, clinical observations, medications, fluid balance, laboratory values, vital signs, and data from life support devices. All intubated patients with at least one extubation attempt were eligible for analysis. Transferred patients, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at the time of data extraction were excluded. Potential predictors were selected by a team of intensive care physicians. The primary and secondary outcomes were extubation without reintubation or death within the next 7 days and within 48 h, respectively. We trained and validated multiple machine learning algorithms using fivefold nested cross-validation. Predictor importance was estimated using Shapley additive explanations, while cutoff values for the relative probability of failed extubation were estimated through partial dependence plots.ResultsA total of 883 patients were included in the model derivation. The reintubation rate was 13.4% within 48 h and 18.9% at day 7, with a mortality rate of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. The grandient-boost model performed best (area under the curve of 0.70) and was used to calculate predictor importance. Ventilatory characteristics and settings were the most important predictors. More specifically, a controlled mode duration longer than 4 days, a last fraction of inspired oxygen higher than 35%, a mean tidal volume per kg ideal body weight above 8 ml/kg in the day before extubation, and a shorter duration in assisted mode (< 2 days) compared to their median values. Additionally, a higher C-reactive protein and leukocyte count, a lower thrombocyte count, a lower Glasgow coma scale and a lower body mass index compared to their medians were associated with extubation failure.ConclusionThe most important predictors for extubation failure in critically ill COVID-19 patients include ventilatory settings, inflammatory parameters, neurological status, and body mass index. These predictors should therefore be routinely captured in electronic health records.

Project description:BackgroundNoninvasive ventilation (NIV) has been widely used in critically ill patients after extubation. However, NIV failure is associated with poor outcomes. This study aimed to determine early predictors of NIV failure and to construct an accurate machine-learning model to identify patients at risks of NIV failure after extubation in intensive care units (ICUs).MethodsPatients who underwent NIV after extubation in the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) were included. NIV failure was defined as need for invasive ventilatory support (reintubation or tracheotomy) or death after NIV initiation. A total of 93 clinical and laboratory variables were assessed, and the recursive feature elimination algorithm was used to select key features. Hyperparameter optimization was conducted with an automated machine-learning toolkit called Neural Network Intelligence. A machine-learning model called Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) was developed and compared with nine other models. The model was then prospectively validated among patients enrolled in the Cardiac Surgical ICU of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University.ResultsOf 929 patients included in the eICU-CRD cohort, 248 (26.7%) had NIV failure. The time from extubation to NIV, age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, heart rate, respiratory rate, mean blood pressure (MBP), saturation of pulse oxygen (SpO2), temperature, glucose, pH, pressure of oxygen in blood (PaO2), urine output, input volume, ventilation duration, and mean airway pressure were selected. After hyperparameter optimization, our model showed the greatest accuracy in predicting NIV failure (AUROC: 0.872 [95% CI 0.82-0.92]) among all predictive methods in an internal validation. In the prospective validation cohort, our model was also superior (AUROC: 0.846 [95% CI 0.80-0.89]). The sensitivity and specificity in the prediction group is 89% and 75%, while in the validation group they are 90% and 70%. MV duration and respiratory rate were the most important features. Additionally, we developed a web-based tool to help clinicians use our model.ConclusionsThis study developed and prospectively validated the CatBoost model, which can be used to identify patients who are at risk of NIV failure. Thus, those patients might benefit from early triage and more intensive monitoring.Trial registrationNCT03704324. Registered 1 September 2018, https://register.Clinicaltrialsgov .

Project description:Background: Extubation failure (EF) can lead to an increased chance of ventilator-associated pneumonia, longer hospital stays, and a higher mortality rate. This study aimed to develop and validate an accurate machine-learning model to predict EF in intensive care units (ICUs). Methods: Patients who underwent extubation in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database were included. EF was defined as the need for ventilatory support (non-invasive ventilation or reintubation) or death within 48 h following extubation. A machine-learning model called Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) was developed based on 89 clinical and laboratory variables. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to evaluate feature importance and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm was used to select key features. Hyperparameter optimization was conducted using an automated machine-learning toolkit (Neural Network Intelligence). The final model was trained based on key features and compared with 10 other models. The model was then prospectively validated in patients enrolled in the Cardiac Surgical ICU of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University. In addition, a web-based tool was developed to help clinicians use our model. Results: Of 16,189 patients included in the MIMIC-IV cohort, 2,756 (17.0%) had EF. Nineteen key features were selected using the RFE algorithm, including age, body mass index, stroke, heart rate, respiratory rate, mean arterial pressure, peripheral oxygen saturation, temperature, pH, central venous pressure, tidal volume, positive end-expiratory pressure, mean airway pressure, pressure support ventilation (PSV) level, mechanical ventilation (MV) durations, spontaneous breathing trial success times, urine output, crystalloid amount, and antibiotic types. After hyperparameter optimization, our model had the greatest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC: 0.835) in internal validation. Significant differences in mortality, reintubation rates, and NIV rates were shown between patients with a high predicted risk and those with a low predicted risk. In the prospective validation, the superiority of our model was also observed (AUROC: 0.803). According to the SHAP values, MV duration and PSV level were the most important features for prediction. Conclusions: In conclusion, this study developed and prospectively validated a CatBoost model, which better predicted EF in ICUs than other models.

Project description:BackgroundPatient safety in the intensive care unit (ICU) is one of the most critical issues, and unplanned extubation (UE) is considered the most adverse event for patient safety. Prevention and early detection of such an event is an essential but difficult component of quality care.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate prediction models for UE in ICU patients using machine learning.MethodsThis study was conducted in an academic tertiary hospital in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The hospital had approximately 2000 inpatient beds and 120 ICU beds. As of January 2019, the hospital had approximately 9000 outpatients on a daily basis. The number of annual ICU admissions was approximately 10,000. We conducted a retrospective study between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018. A total of 6914 extubation cases were included. We developed a UE prediction model using machine learning algorithms, which included random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). For evaluating the model's performance, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score were also determined for each model. For performance evaluation, we also used a calibration curve, the Brier score, and the integrated calibration index (ICI) to compare different models. The potential clinical usefulness of the best model at the best threshold was assessed through a net benefit approach using a decision curve.ResultsAmong the 6914 extubation cases, 248 underwent UE. In the UE group, there were more males than females, higher use of physical restraints, and fewer surgeries. The incidence of UE was higher during the night shift as compared to the planned extubation group. The rate of reintubation within 24 hours and hospital mortality were higher in the UE group. The UE prediction algorithm was developed, and the AUROC for RF was 0.787, for LR was 0.762, for ANN was 0.763, and for SVM was 0.740.ConclusionsWe successfully developed and validated machine learning-based prediction models to predict UE in ICU patients using electronic health record data. The best AUROC was 0.787 and the sensitivity was 0.949, which was obtained using the RF algorithm. The RF model was well-calibrated, and the Brier score and ICI were 0.129 and 0.048, respectively. The proposed prediction model uses widely available variables to limit the additional workload on the clinician. Further, this evaluation suggests that the model holds potential for clinical usefulness.

Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate the contribution of a preextubation chest X-ray (CXR) to identify the risk of extubation failure in mechanically ventilated patients.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingsICUs in a tertiary center (the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database).PatientsPatients greater than or equal to 18 years old who were mechanically ventilated and extubated after a spontaneous breathing trial.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsAmong 1,066 mechanically ventilated patients, 132 patients (12%) experienced extubation failure, defined as reintubation or death within 48 hours of extubation. To predict extubation failure, we developed the following models based on deep learning (EfficientNet) and machine learning (LightGBM) with the training data: 1) model using only the rapid-shallow breathing index (RSBI), 2) model using RSBI and CXR, 3) model using all candidate clinical predictors (i.e., patient demographics, vital signs, laboratory values, and ventilator settings) other than CXR, and 4) model using all candidate clinical predictors with CXR. We compared the predictive abilities between models with the test data to investigate the predictive contribution of CXR. The predictive ability of the model using CXR as well as RSBI was not significantly higher than that of the model using only RSBI (c-statistics, 0.56 vs 0.56; p = 0.95). The predictive ability of the model using clinical predictors with CXR was not significantly higher than that of the model using all clinical predictors other than CXR (c-statistics, 0.71 vs 0.70; p = 0.12). Based on SHapley Additive exPlanations values to interpret the model using all clinical predictors with CXR, CXR was less likely to contribute to the predictive ability than other predictors (e.g., duration of mechanical ventilation, inability to follow commands, and heart rate).ConclusionsAdding CXR to a set of other clinical predictors in our prediction model did not significantly improve the predictive ability of extubation failure in mechanically ventilated patients.

Dataset Information

Prediction of extubation failure among low birthweight neonates using machine learning.

Objective

Study design

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of extubation failure among low birthweight neonates using machine learning.

Similar Datasets

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