Dataset Information

Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.

ABSTRACT: The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.

SUBMITTER: Xu L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10366125 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.

Xu Lei L Wang Qian Q Yang Ruifu R Ganbold Dalantai D Tsogbadrakh Nyamdorj N Dong Kaixing K Liu Min M Altantogtokh Doniddemberel D Liu Qiyong Q Undrakhbold Sainbileg S Boldgiv Bazartseren B Liang Wannian W Stenseth Nils Chr NC

Scientific reports 20230724 1

The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic l ...[more]

PMID: 37488160

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Project description:To reveal the characteristics of climate change and the controlling factors for vegetation dynamics in the Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China, 34 years (1982-2015) of regional climate variables and vegetation dynamics were investigated. The results show that: Annual mean air temperature (TMP) significantly increased with a linear slope of 0.473°C/10yr. Annual precipitation (PRE) had a non-significant positive trend nearly 5 times lower than the trend of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) computed for the region was found to show a significant positive trend (6.131×10-4/yr). However, all climate variables displayed non-significant correlations with NDVI at annual scale. The reduction of desert and the increase of grassland over the past decades were accountable for the increased NDVI. Principal components analysis revealed that the regional climate change can be characterized as changes in temperature, humidity and the availability of radiant energy. Based on principal components regression coefficients, NDVI was mostly sensitive to humidity component, followed by growing season warmth (WMI). Spatially, 93.1% of the pixels displayed positive trend and 61.8% of the pixels displayed significant change over the past decades. Both principal regression analysis and partial correlation analysis revealed that NDVI in eastern part of Ordos was sensitive to TMP, whereas, NDVI in southern and western areas of Ordos displayed the high sensitivity to combined effects of PRE and cloud coverage (CLD). Partial correlation analyses also revealed that TMX was a surrogate for aridity, TMN was a representative of humidity, and temperature variations below the threshold of 5°C (CDI) were less important than WMI. We conclude that regional climate change can be characterized by warming and increased aridity. The significant positive trend of regional NDVI and the non-significant correlations between NDVI and climate variables at annual scale suggests the hidden role of the human activities.

Project description:To provide guidance for plague surveillance and a reliable basis for plague prevention and control, we analyzed the habitat characteristics of Himalayan marmots, developed Himalayan marmot information collection system V3.0 based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS), remote sensing, and geographic information system ("3S") technology, and drew a predictive spatial distribution map of Himalayan marmots in Qinghai Province. Field survey data of 352 marmot plague sites in Qinghai Province were collected in 2014, and the data from 80 sample sites were included. The Himalayan marmot habitat characteristics were analyzed based on "3S" technology using five environment variables (elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, and grass type) and the geographical coordinates. Himalayan marmot information collection system V3.0, which has been approved by the National Copyright Administration of the People's Republic of China (No.00764743), was used to draw a predictive spatial distribution map of Himalayan marmots in Qinghai province. Moreover, from 2015 to 2017, positioning data of the plague-foci and plague-free areas in Qinghai Province were collected using GNSS receptor for field validations to verify the accuracy of the marmot predictive spatial distribution map. Elevation, slope, vegetation cover, and grassland type were identified as important environmental factors that determine the spatial distribution of Himalayan marmots. The suitable range of environmental features was 3400-4600 m elevation, 5°-20° slope, 0.60-1.00 vegetation cover, and alpine meadows. The Himalayan marmot predictive spatial distribution map in Qinghai Province based on "3S" technology and marmot information collection system V3.0 had a spatial resolution of 30 m. Field validation in areas of Qinghai Province revealed a prediction accuracy and mean absolute error of 0.8669 and 0.1331, respectively, which indicated excellent prediction accuracy. This study greatly improved the work efficiency of plague surveillance and effectively reduced the work intensity of researchers. Application of "3S" technology and marmot information collection system V3.0 has improved the data collection efficiency, provided new technical means for plague investigation and research, and provided a reference for development of plague surveillance programs. The research results will play a positive role in promoting the improvement and perfection of plague prevention and control strategies in Qinghai province and even in China.

Dataset Information

Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.

Publications

Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.

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