Dataset Information

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study.

Data description

The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

SUBMITTER: Houle B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10498573 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

Houle Brian B Clark Samuel J SJ Kabudula Chodziwadziwa W CW Gómez-Olivé F Xavier FX Angotti Nicole N Schatz Enid E Tilstra Andrea M AM Mojola Sanyu A SA Menken Jane J

BMC research notes 20230912 1

<h4>Objectives</h4>South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study.<h4>Data description</h4>The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health ...[more]

PMID: 37700363

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Project description:BackgroundSub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality.MethodsData come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.ResultsDuring the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05).ConclusionsOur results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population. PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Project description:BackgroundThe MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data.ObjectiveTo present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action.DesignVital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner.ResultsBetween 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system.ConclusionsThe Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.

Project description:ObjectivesResearch on migration and HIV has largely focused on male migration, often failing to measure HIV risks associated with migration for women. We aimed to establish whether associations between migration and HIV infection differ for women and men, and identify possible mechanisms by which women's migration contributes to their high infection risk.DesignData on socio-demographic characteristics, patterns of migration, sexual behavior and HIV infection status were obtained for a population of 11,677 women aged 15-49 and men aged 15-54, resident members of households within a demographic surveillance area participating in HIV surveillance in 2003-04.MethodsLogistic regression was conducted to examine whether sex and migration were independently associated with HIV infection in three additive effects models, using measures of recent migration, household presence and migration frequency. Multiplicative effects models were fitted to explore whether the risk of HIV associated with migration differed for males and females. Further modeling and simulations explored whether composition or behavioral differences accounted for observed associations.ResultsRelative to non-migrant males, non-migrant females had higher odds of being HIV-positive (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [1.49-1.99]), but odds were higher for female migrants (aOR = 2.55 [2.07-3.13]). Female migrants also had higher odds of infection relative to female non-migrants (aOR = 1.48 [1.23-1.77]). The association between number of sexual partners over the lifetime and HIV infection was modified by both sex and migrant status: For male non-migrants, each additional partner was associated with 3% higher odds of HIV infection (aOR = 1.03 [1.02-1.05]); for male migrants the association between number of partners and HIV infection was non-significant. Each additional partner increased odds of HIV infection by 22% for female non-migrants (aOR = 1.22 [1.12-1.32]) and 46% for female migrants (aOR = 1.46 [1.25-1.69]).ConclusionsHigher risk sexual behavior in the context of migration increased women's likelihood of HIV infection.

Project description:IntroductionLittle data exists from sub-Saharan Africa describing incidence and outcomes of sepsis in emergency units and uncertainty exists surrounding optimal management of sepsis in low-income settings. There exists limited data regarding quality care metrics for non-physician clinicians trained in emergency care. The objective of this study was to describe changes in septic patients over time and evaluate associations between sepsis care and mortality.MethodsSecondary analysis of a prospective cohort of all consecutive patients seen from 2010-2019 in a rural Ugandan emergency unit staffed by non-physician clinicians was performed using an electronic database based on paper charts. Sepsis was defined as suspected infection with a quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA)≥1. Multi-variable logistic regression was used to analyze three-day mortality.ResultsOverall, 48,653 patient visits from 2010-2019 yielded 17,490 encounters for patients age≥18 who had suspected infection, including 10,437 with sepsis. The annual proportion of patients with sepsis decreased from 45.0%% to 21.3% and the proportion with malarial sepsis decreased from 17.7% to 2.1% during the study period. Rates of septic patients receiving quality care ("both fluids and anti-infectives") increased over time (21.2% in 2012 to 32.0% in 2019, p<0.001), but mortality did not significantly improve (4.5% in 2012 to 6.4% in 2019, p = 0.50). The increasing quality of non-physician clinician care was not associated with reduced mortality, and treatment with "both fluids and antibiotics" was associated with increased mortality (RR = 1.55, 95%CI 1.10-2.00).ConclusionThe largest study of sepsis management and outcomes ever published in both Uganda and sub-Saharan Africa showed sepsis and malarial sepsis decreasing from 2010 to 2019. The increasing quality of non-physician clinician care did not significantly reduce mortality and treatment with "both fluids and antibiotics" increased mortality. With causal associations between antibiotics and mortality deemed implausible, associations between sepsis mortality and interventions likely represent confounding by indication. Defining optimal sepsis care regionally will likely require randomized controlled trials.

Dataset Information

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

Objectives

Data description

Publications

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.

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