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Prehospital predicting factors using a decision tree model for patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and an initial shockable rhythm.

ABSTRACT: The effect of prehospital factors on favorable neurological outcomes remains unclear in patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and a shockable rhythm. We developed a decision tree model for these patients by using prehospital factors. Using a nationwide OHCA registry database between 2005 and 2020, we retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 1,930,273 patients, of whom 86,495 with witnessed OHCA and an initial shockable rhythm were included. The primary endpoint was defined as favorable neurological survival (cerebral performance category score of 1 or 2 at 1 month). A decision tree model was developed from randomly selected 77,845 patients (development cohort) and validated in 8650 patients (validation cohort). In the development cohort, the presence of prehospital return of spontaneous circulation was the best predictor of favorable neurological survival, followed by the absence of adrenaline administration and age. The patients were categorized into 9 groups with probabilities of favorable neurological survival ranging from 5.7 to 70.8% (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.851 and 0.844 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively). Our model is potentially helpful in stratifying the probability of favorable neurological survival in patients with witnessed OHCA and an initial shockable rhythm.

SUBMITTER: Tateishi K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10533815 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prehospital predicting factors using a decision tree model for patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and an initial shockable rhythm.

Tateishi Kazuya K Saito Yuichi Y Yasufuku Yuichi Y Nakagomi Atsushi A Kitahara Hideki H Kobayashi Yoshio Y Tahara Yoshio Y Yonemoto Naohiro N Ikeda Takanori T Sato Naoki N Okura Hiroyuki H

Scientific reports 20230927 1

The effect of prehospital factors on favorable neurological outcomes remains unclear in patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and a shockable rhythm. We developed a decision tree model for these patients by using prehospital factors. Using a nationwide OHCA registry database between 2005 and 2020, we retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 1,930,273 patients, of whom 86,495 with witnessed OHCA and an initial shockable rhythm were included. The primary endpoint was defined as ...[more]

PMID: 37758799

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Project description:BackgroundSingapore and Osaka in Japan have comparable population sizes and prehospital management; however, the frequency of ECPR differs greatly for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with initial shockable rhythm. Given this disparity, we hypothesized that the outcomes among the OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm in Singapore were different from those in Osaka. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm in Singapore compared to the expected outcomes derived from Osaka data using machine learning-based prediction models.MethodsThis was a secondary analysis of two OHCA databases: the Singapore PAROS database (SG-PAROS) and the Osaka-CRITICAL database from Osaka, Japan. This study included adult (18-74 years) OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm. A machine learning-based prediction model was derived and validated using data from the Osaka-CRITICAL database (derivation data 2012-2017, validation data 2018-2019), and applied to the SG-PAROS database (2010-2016 data), to predict the risk-adjusted probability of favorable neurological outcomes. The observed and expected outcomes were compared using the observed-expected ratio (OE ratio) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsFrom the SG-PAROS database, 1,789 patients were included in the analysis. For OHCA patients who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) on hospital arrival, the observed favorable neurological outcome was at the same level as expected (OE ratio: 0.905 [95%CI: 0.784-1.036]). On the other hand, for those who had continued cardiac arrest on hospital arrival, the outcomes were lower than expected (shockable rhythm on hospital arrival, OE ratio: 0.369 [95%CI: 0.258-0.499], and nonshockable rhythm, OE ratio: 0.137 [95%CI: 0.065-0.235]).ConclusionThis observational study found that the outcomes for patients with initial shockable rhythm but who did not obtain ROSC on hospital arrival in Singapore were lower than expected from Osaka. We hypothesize this is mainly due to differences in the use of ECPR.

Project description:Background and importanceBystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and initial shockable rhythm are crucial predictors of survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). However, the relationship between dispatcher-assisted CPR (DA-CPR) and initial shockable rhythm is not completely elucidated.ObjectiveTo examine the association of DA-CPR with initial shockable rhythm and outcomes.Design, setting and participantsThis nationwide population-based observational study conducted in Japan included 59 688 patients with witnessed OHCA of cardiac origin after excluding those without bystander CPR. Patients were divided into DA-CPR (n = 42 709) and CPR without dispatcher assistance (unassisted CPR, n = 16 979) groups.Outcome measures and analysisThe primary outcome measure was initial shockable rhythm, and secondary outcome measures were 1-month survival and neurologically intact survival. A Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for collapse-to-first-rhythm-analysis time and multivariable logistic regression models were used after propensity score (PS) matching to compare the incidence of initial shockable rhythm and outcomes, respectively.Main resultsAmong all patients (mean age 76.7 years), the rates of initial shockable rhythm, 1-month survival and neurologically intact survival were 20.8, 10.7 and 7.0%, respectively. The incidence of initial shockable rhythm in the DA-CPR group (20.4%, 3462/16 979) was significantly higher than that in the unassisted CPR group (18.5%, 3133/16 979) after PS matching (P < 0.0001). However, no significant differences were found between the two groups with respect to the incidence of initial shockable rhythm in the Cox proportional hazards model [adjusted hazard ratio of DA-CPR for initial shockable rhythm compared with unassisted CPR, 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.97-1.02, P = 0.56]. No significant differences were observed in the survival rates in the two groups after PS matching [10.8% (1833/16 979) vs. 10.3% (1752/16 979), P = 0.16] and neurologically intact survival rates [7.3% (1233/16 979) vs. 6.8% (1161/16 979), P = 0.13]. The multivariable logistic regression model showed no significant differences between the groups with regard to survival (adjusted odds ratio of DA-CPR compared with unassisted CPR: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.13, P = 0.97) and neurologically intact survival (adjusted odds ratio: 1.12; 95% CI, 0.98-1.29, P = 0.14).ConclusionDA-CPR after OHCA had the same independent association with the likelihood of initial shockable rhythm and 1-month meaningful outcome as unassisted CPR.

Project description:BackgroundThe TiPS65 score is a validated scoring system used to predict neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with shockable rhythm treated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR). This study aimed to assess the predictive performance of the TiPS65 score in OHCA patients with initial non-shockable rhythm treated with ECPR.MethodsThis was a secondary analysis using the JAAM-OHCA registry, a multicenter prospective cohort study. The study included adult OHCA patients with initial non-shockable rhythm who underwent ECPR. The TiPS65 score assigned one point to each of four variables: time to hospital ≤25 minutes, pH value ≥7.0 on initial blood gas assessment, shockable on hospital arrival, and age younger than 65 years. Based on the sum score, the predictive performance for 1-month survival and favorable neurological outcomes, defined as the Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2, was evaluated.ResultsAmong 57,754 patients in the registry, 370 were included in the analysis. The overall one-month survival and favorable neurological outcome were 11.1% (41/370) and 4.2% (15/370), respectively. The 1-month survival rates based on the TiPS65 score were as follows: 11.2% (12/107) for 0 points, 9.3% (14/150) for 1 point, 10.0% (9/90) for 2 points, and 26.1% (6/23) for ≥3 points. Similarly, the 1-month favorable neurological outcomes were: 5.6% (6/107) for 0 points, 2.7% (4/150) for 1 point, 4.4% (4/90) for 2 points, and 4.3% (1/23) for ≥3 points. The area under the curve was 0.535 (95% CI: 0.437-0.630) for 1-month survival and 0.530 (95% CI: 0.372-0.683) for 1-month neurological outcome.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that the TiPS65 score has limited prognostic performance among OHCA patients with initial non-shockable rhythm treated with ECPR. Further research is warranted to develop a predictive tool specifically focused on OHCA with initial non-shockable rhythm to aid in determining candidates for ECPR.

Project description:ImportanceVentricular fibrillation (VF) or pulseless ventricular tachycardia (pVT) are the most treatable causes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Yet, it remains unknown if defibrillator pad position, placement in the anterior-posterior (AP) or anterior-lateral (AL) locations, impacts patient outcomes in VF or pVT OHCA.ObjectiveTo determine the association between initial defibrillator pad placement position and OHCA outcomes for patients presenting with VF or pVT.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study included patients with OHCA and VF or pVT treated by a single North American emergency medical services (EMS) agency from July 1, 2019, through June 30, 2023. The study included patients with OHCA treated by a large suburban fire-based EMS agency that covers a population of 550 000. Consecutive patients with an initial EMS-assessed rhythm of VF or pVT receiving EMS defibrillation were included. Pediatric patients (younger than 18 years), interfacility transfers, arrests of obvious traumatic etiology, and patients with preexisting do-not-resuscitate status were excluded.ExposureAP or AL pad placement.Main outcomes and measuresReturn of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) at any time with secondary outcomes of pulses present at emergency department (ED) arrival, survival to hospital admission, survival to hospital discharge, and functional survival at hospital discharge (cerebral performance category score of 2 or less). Measures included adjusted odds ratios (aOR), multivariable logistic regressions, and Fine-Gray competing risks regression.ResultsA total of 255 patients with OHCA were included (median [IQR] age, 66 [55-74] years; 63 females [24.7%]), with initial pad positioning documented as either AP (158 patients [62.0%]; median [IQR] age, 65 [54-74] years; 37 females [23.4%]) or AL (97 patients [38.0%]; median [IQR] age, 66 [57-74] years; 26 females [26.8%]). Patients with AP placement had higher adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of ROSC at any time (aOR, 2.64 [95% CI, 1.50-4.65]), but not significantly different odds of pulses present at ED arrival (1.34 [95% CI, 0.78-2.30]), survival to hospital admission (1.41 [0.82-2.43]), survival to hospital discharge (1.55 [95% CI, 0.83-2.90]), or functional survival at hospital discharge (1.86 [95% CI, 0.98-3.51]). Competing risk analysis found significantly greater cumulative incidence of ROSC among those at risk with initial AP placement compared with AL (subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.23-2.67]; P = .003).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of patients with OHCA and VF or pVT, AP defibrillator pad placement was associated with higher ROSC compared with AL placement.

Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate whether patients who experience cardiac arrest in hospital receive epinephrine (adrenaline) within the two minutes after the first defibrillation (contrary to American Heart Association guidelines) and to evaluate the association between early administration of epinephrine and outcomes in this population.DesignProspective observational cohort study.SettingAnalysis of data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry, which includes data from more than 300 hospitals in the United States.ParticipantsAdults in hospital who experienced cardiac arrest with an initial shockable rhythm, including patients who had a first defibrillation within two minutes of the cardiac arrest and who remained in a shockable rhythm after defibrillation.InterventionEpinephrine given within two minutes after the first defibrillation.Main outcome measuresSurvival to hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes included return of spontaneous circulation and survival to hospital discharge with a good functional outcome. A propensity score was calculated for the receipt of epinephrine within two minutes after the first defibrillation, based on multiple characteristics of patients, events, and hospitals. Patients who received epinephrine at either zero, one, or two minutes after the first defibrillation were then matched on the propensity score with patients who were "at risk" of receiving epinephrine within the same minute but who did not receive it.Results2978 patients were matched on the propensity score, and the groups were well balanced. 1510 (51%) patients received epinephrine within two minutes after the first defibrillation, which is contrary to current American Heart Association guidelines. Epinephrine given within the first two minutes after the first defibrillation was associated with decreased odds of survival in the propensity score matched analysis (odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.82; P<0.001). Early epinephrine administration was also associated with a decreased odds of return of spontaneous circulation (0.71, 0.60 to 0.83; P<0.001) and good functional outcome (0.69, 0.58 to 0.83; P<0.001).ConclusionHalf of patients with a persistent shockable rhythm received epinephrine within two minutes after the first defibrillation, contrary to current American Heart Association guidelines. The receipt of epinephrine within two minutes after the first defibrillation was associated with decreased odds of survival to hospital discharge as well as decreased odds of return of spontaneous circulation and survival to hospital discharge with a good functional outcome.

Dataset Information

Prehospital predicting factors using a decision tree model for patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and an initial shockable rhythm.

Publications

Prehospital predicting factors using a decision tree model for patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and an initial shockable rhythm.

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