Cost-benefit analysis of alternative tax policies on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Salgado Hernandez J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10547152 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In response to the high prevalence of overweight and obesity, Mexico implemented a volumetric tax of one Mexican peso (MP) per liter of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) in 2014. In contrast to Mexico's volumetric tax design, the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa (ZA) implemented SSB taxes based on sugar density. This kind of tax is likely to yield larger health benefits than volumetric taxes by imposing a larger tax burden on high-sugar SSB and/or encouraging reformulation. However, sugar-density taxes might yield lower tax revenues. This study aims to simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes as those in the UK and ZA on SSB purchases (in terms of volume and sugar), SSB prices, and tax revenue in Mexico and compare this effect to its counterpart under the current volumetric SSB tax. Additionally, we simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes under different scenarios of reformulation. We conducted all these simulations based on a structural model of demand and supply using household purchase data for 2012-2015 in urban Mexico. We found that the current volumetric one-MP tax led to an SSB purchase reduction of 19% for both volume and sugar and an SSB price increases by MP $1.24. We simulated similar effects under the UK and ZA sugar-density taxes when these taxes were equivalent to the volumetric one-MP tax, and there was no reformulation. When assuming reformulation, the sugar reduction under the sugar-density taxes was up to twice larger than the volumetric one-MP tax. However, we found that the volumetric one-MP tax yielded the largest tax revenue across all tax designs. From a public health perspective, sugar-density taxes are likely to be more effective in tackling the overweight and obesity prevalence in Mexico; however, tax revenue might be lower under these taxes.
| S-EPMC8375996 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate changes in taxed and untaxed beverages by volume of beverage purchased after a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax was introduced in 2014 in Mexico.DesignWe used household purchase data from January 2012 to December 2015. We first classified the sample into four groups based on pre-tax purchases of beverages: (i) higher purchases of taxed beverages and lower purchases of untaxed beverages (HTLU-unhealthier); (ii) higher purchases of both types of beverages (HTHU); (iii) lower purchases of taxed and untaxed beverages (LTLU); and (iv) lower purchases of taxed beverages and higher purchases of untaxed beverages (LTHU-healthier). Next, we estimated differences in purchases after the tax was implemented for each group compared with a counterfactual based on pre-tax trends using a fixed-effects model.SettingAreas with more than 50 000 residents in Mexico.ParticipantsHouseholds (n 6089).ResultsThe HTLU-unhealthier and HTHU groups had the largest absolute and relative reductions in taxed beverages and increased their purchases of untaxed beverages. Households with lower purchases of untaxed beverages (HTLU-unhealthier and LTLU) had the largest absolute and relative increases in untaxed beverages. We also found that among households with higher purchases of taxed beverages, the group with lowest socio-economic status had the greatest reduction in purchases of taxed beverages.ConclusionsEvidence associating the SSB tax with larger reductions among high purchasers of taxed beverages prior to the tax is relevant, as higher SSB purchasers have a greater risk of obesity, diabetes and other cardiometabolic outcomes.
| S-EPMC6581622 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The goal of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes is to raise the prices of SSBs to decrease consumption. Price promotions play an important role in the sales of SSBs and could potentially be used by manufacturers to weaken the impact of such taxes. The purpose of this study is to determine how price promotions changed after the introduction of the 2017 Oakland SSB tax. A difference-in-differences study design was used to compare changes in prices and the prevalence and amount of price promotions for beverages in Oakland, California, relative to Sacramento, California, using two different datasets. Nielsen Retail Scanner data included price promotions for beverages sold and store audit data included price promotions offered by retailers. Changes were analyzed for SSBs, noncalorically sweetened beverages, and unsweetened beverages. After the implementation of the tax, the prevalence of price promotions for SSBs did not change significantly in Oakland relative to the comparison site of Sacramento. However, the depth of price promotions increased by an estimated 0.35 cents per ounce (P<0.001) based on the Nielsen retail scanner data and by 0.39 cents per ounce (P<0.001) based on the store audit data. This increase in the amount by which SSBs were price promoted following the introduction of the Oakland SSB tax may reflect a strategy by manufacturers to weaken the tax and/or retailers to bolster demand.
| S-EPMC10256178 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionWhat has been the effect on purchases of beverages from stores in Mexico one year after implementation of the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages?MethodsIn this observational study the authors used data on the purchase of beverages in Mexico from January 2012 to December 2014 from an unbalanced panel of 6253 households providing 205 112 observations in 53 cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants. To test whether the post-tax trend in purchases was significantly different from the pretax trend, the authors used a difference in difference fixed effects model, which adjusts for both macroeconomic variables that can affect the purchase of beverages over time, and pre-existing trends. The variables used in the analysis included demographic information on household composition (age and sex of household members) and socioeconomic status (low, middle, and high). The authors compared the predicted volumes (mL/capita/day) of taxed and untaxed beverages purchased in 2014-the observed post-tax period-with the estimated volumes that would have been purchased if the tax had not been implemented (counterfactual) based on pretax trends.Study answer and limitationsRelative to the counterfactual in 2014, purchases of taxed beverages decreased by an average of 6% (-12 mL/capita/day), and decreased at an increasing rate up to a 12% decline by December 2014. All three socioeconomic groups reduced purchases of taxed beverages, but reductions were higher among the households of low socioeconomic status, averaging a 9% decline during 2014, and up to a 17% decrease by December 2014 compared with pretax trends. Purchases of untaxed beverages were 4% (36 mL/capita/day) higher than the counterfactual, mainly driven by an increase in purchases of bottled plain water.What this study addsThe tax on sugar sweetened beverages was associated with reductions in purchases of taxed beverages and increases in purchases of untaxed beverages. Continued monitoring is needed to understand purchases longer term, potential substitutions, and health implications.Funding, competing interests, data sharingThis work was supported by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and by the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública and the Carolina Population Center. The authors have no competing interests. No additional data are available.
| S-EPMC4986313 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionWhat effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico?MethodsUsing recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario.Study answer and limitationsTen years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches.What this study addsThe sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.
| S-EPMC5435164 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo describe trends across the intake distribution of total, manufactured and homemade sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) from 1999 to 2012, focusing on high SSB consumers and on changes by socio-economic status (SES) subgroup.DesignWe analysed data from one 24 h dietary recall from two nationally representative surveys. Quantile regression models at the 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of energy intake distribution of SSB were used.Setting1999 Mexican National Nutrition Survey and 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey.ParticipantsSchool-aged children (5-11 years) and women (20-49 years) for trend analyses (n 7718). Population aged >1 year for 2012 (n 10 096).ResultsOver the 1999-2012 period, there were significant increases in the proportion of total and manufactured SSB consumers (5·7 and 10·7 percentage points), along with an increase in per-consumer SSB energy intake, resulting in significant increases in per-capita total SSB energy intake (142, 247 and 397 kJ/d (34, 59 and 95 kcal/d) in school-aged children and 155, 331 and 456 kJ/d (37, 79 and 109 kcal/d) in women at the 50th, 75th and 90th percentile, respectively). Total and manufactured SSB intakes increased sharply among low-SES children but remained similar among high-SES children during this time span.ConclusionsLarge increases in SSB consumption were seen between 1999 and 2012 during this pre-tax SSB period, particularly for the highest consumers. Trends observed in school-aged children are a clear example of the nutrition transition experienced in Mexico. Policies to discourage high intake of manufactured SSB should continue, joined with strategies to encourage water and low-calorie beverage consumption.
| S-EPMC6298817 | biostudies-literature
Project description:[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176336.].
| S-EPMC5764414 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine changes in categories of soft drink consumption in a cohort of Mexican adults, three years after the implementation of the sugar sweetened beverage tax. DESIGN:Open cohort longitudinal analysis. SETTING:Three waves of the Health Workers Cohort Study, Mexico, spanning 2004 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS:1770 people aged 19 years or older with information on drinks consumption available in at least one of the three cohort waves. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:Change in probability of belonging to one of four categories of soft drinks consumption (non, low, medium, high) after the tax was implemented. Heterogeneity of associations by income and education was also assessed. RESULTS:Before the implementation of the tax, more than 50% of the participants were medium and high consumers of soft drinks and less than 10% were in the non-consumer category. After the tax was implemented, 43% of the population was categorised as medium or high consumers and the prevalence of non-consumers increased to 14%. Three years after implementation of the tax on 1 January 2014, the probability of being a non-consumer of soft drinks increased by 4.7 (95% confidence interval 0.3 to 9.1) percentage points and that of being a low consumer increased by 8.3 (0.6 to 16.0) percentage points compared with the pre-tax period. Conversely, the probability of being in the medium and high levels of soft drinks consumption decreased by 6.8 (0.5 to 13.2) percentage points and 6.1 (0.4 to 11.9) percentage points, respectively. No significant heterogeneity of the tax across income levels was observed, but stronger effects of the tax were seen in participants with secondary school education or higher, compared with those with elementary school or less. CONCLUSIONS:The Mexican sugar sweetened beverage tax was associated with a reduction in the probability of consuming soft drinks in this cohort of employees from a healthcare provider. The results cannot be extrapolated to the Mexican population, but they suggest that three years after implementation, the tax had helped to increase the proportion of people who do not consume soft drinks while decreasing the proportion of high and medium consumers.
| S-EPMC7201935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), as a component of a comprehensive strategy, has emerged as an apparent effective intervention to counteract the rising prevalence of overweight and obesity. Insight into the political and public acceptability may help adoption and implementation in countries with governments that are considering an SSBs tax. Hence, we aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize the existing qualitative and quantitative literature on political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax. METHODS:Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched until November 2018. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Qualitative studies were analyzed using a thematic synthesis. Quantitative studies were analyzed using a random-effects meta-analysis for the pooling of proportions. RESULTS:Thirty-seven articles reporting on forty studies were eligible for inclusion. Five themes derived from the thematic synthesis: (i) beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, (ii) appropriateness, (iii) economic and socioeconomic benefit, (iv) policy adoption and implementation, and (v) public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that of the public 42% (95% CI = 0.38-0.47) supports an SSBs tax, 39% (0.29-0.50) supports an SSBs tax as a strategy to reduce obesity, and 66% (0.60-0.72) supports an SSBs tax if revenue is used for health initiatives. CONCLUSIONS:Beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, appropriateness, economic and socioeconomic benefit, policy adoption and implementation, and public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts have important implications for the political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax. We provide recommendations to increase acceptability and enhance successful adoption and implementation of an SSBs tax: (i) address inconsistencies between identified beliefs and scientific literature, (ii) use raised revenue for health initiatives, (iii) communicate transparently about the true purpose of the tax, and (iv) generate political priority for solutions to the challenges to implementation.
| S-EPMC6727579 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95%?CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46?million (95%?CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia.
| S-EPMC7213810 | biostudies-literature