Radiomics preoperative-Fistula Risk Score (RAD-FRS) for pancreatoduodenectomy: development and external validation
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC10561131 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundTo develop a modified Fistula Risk Score (FRS) for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) based on both FRS and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT).MethodsIn this multicenter retrospective analysis, we focused on 990 consecutive patients with pancreatoduodenectomy performed at four institutions between 2009 and 2019. The enhanced CT-FRS model initially targeted 26 pre- and intraoperative factors, including CT descriptors, FRS elements and clinical factors, using LASSO-penalized multivariable logistic regression for predicting CR-POPF events in discovery (n = 718) and externally validated (n = 272) datasets. Probabilities generated were further correlated with histologic features of pancreatic stumps in 356 patients. C-indices were analyzed to compare the predictive potential between the original FRS and the CT-FRS.FindingsCR-POPF developed in 112 (15.6%) and 36 (13.2%) patients in discovery and validation datasets, respectively. The final CT-FRS construct, incorporating remnant pancreatic volume (RPV), stump area, fat and atrophy scores by CT, and main pancreatic duct size, offered significantly greater overall predictability than the original FRS in discovery (C-index: 0.825 vs 0.794; p = 0.04) and validation (0.807 vs 0.741; p = 0.05) cohorts. Importantly, it outperformed the FRS in patients at moderate risk levels (FRS: 3-6), showing remarkably improved C-indices (discovery: 0.729 vs 0.626 [p<0.001], validation: 0.722 vs 0.573 [p = 0.006]). CT-FRS probabilities increased in conjunction with less extensive pancreatic fibrosis (p<0.001), ample glandular acini (p<0.001), and advanced lipomatosis (p<0.001).InterpretationThe enhanced CT-FRS performed significantly better than the original FRS in predicting CR-POPF occurrences after PD, especially at moderate FRS levels.
| S-EPMC7648191 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHighly utilized risk scores for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) have guided clinical decision-making in pancreatoduodenectomy. However, none has been successfully developed for distal pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop and validate a new fistula risk score for distal pancreatectomy.MethodsPatients undergoing distal pancreatectomy at Helsinki University Hospital, Finland from 2013 to 2021, and at Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, from 2010 to 2020, were included retrospectively. The outcome was CR-POPF, according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery definition. Preoperative clinical demographics and radiological parameters such as pancreatic thickness and duct diameter were measured. A logistic regression model was developed, internally validated with bootstrapping, and the performance assessed in an external validation cohort.ResultsOf 668 patients from Helsinki (266) and Stockholm (402), 173 (25.9 per cent) developed CR-POPF. The final model consisted of three variables assessed before surgery: transection site (neck versus body/tail), pancreatic thickness at transection site, and diabetes. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.904 (95 per cent c.i. 0.855 to 0.949) after internal validation, and 0.798 (0.748 to 0.848) after external validation. The calibration slope and intercept on external validation were 0.719 and 0.192 respectively. Four risk groups were defined in the validation cohort for clinical applicability: low (below 5 per cent), moderate (at least 5 but below 30 per cent), high (at least 30 but below 75 per cent), and extreme (75 per cent or more). The incidences in these groups were 8.7 per cent (11 of 126), 22.0 per cent (36 of 164), 63 per cent (57 of 91), and 81 per cent (17 of 21) respectively.ConclusionThe DISPAIR score after distal pancreatectomy may guide decision-making and allow a risk-adjusted outcome comparison for CR-POPF.
| S-EPMC10364701 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFactors excluding postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), facilitating early drain removal and hospital discharge represent a novel approach in patients undergoing enhanced recovery after pancreatic surgery. This study aimed to establish the relevance of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in excluding POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).MethodsA prospectively maintained database of patients who underwent PD at two high-volume centres was used. Patients were divided into three cohorts (training, internal, and external validation). The primary endpoints of this study were accuracy, optimal timing, and cutoff values of NLR for excluding POPF after PD.ResultsFrom 2012 to 2020, in a 2:1 ratio, 451 consecutive patients were randomly sampled as training (n = 301) and validation (n = 150) cohorts. Additionally, the external validation cohort included 197 patients between 2018 and 2020. POPF was diagnosed in 135 (20.8 per cent) patients. The 90-day mortality rate was 4.1 per cent. NLR less than 8.5 on postoperative day 3 (OR, 95 per cent c.i.) was significantly associated with the absence of POPF in the training (2.41, 1.19 to 4.88; P = 0.015), internal validation (5.59, 2.02 to 15.43; P = 0.001), and external validation (5.13, 1.67 to 15.76; P = 0.004) cohorts when adjusted for relevant clinical factors. Postoperative outcomes significantly differed using this threshold.ConclusionNLR less than 8.5 on postoperative day 3 may be a simple, independent, cost-effective, and easy-to-use criterion for excluding POPF.
| S-EPMC9835509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEvery fifth patient undergoing left pancreatectomy develops a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Accurate POPF risk prediction could help. Two independent preoperative prediction models have been developed and externally validated: DISPAIR and D-FRS. The aim of this study was to validate, compare, and possibly update the models.MethodsPatients from nine high-volume pancreatic surgery centres (8 in Europe and 1 in North America) were included in this retrospective cohort study. Inclusion criteria were age over 18 years and open or minimally invasive left pancreatectomy since 2010. Model performance was assessed with discrimination (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves) and calibration (calibration plots). The updated model was developed with logistic regression and internally-externally validated.ResultsOf 2284 patients included, 497 (21.8%) developed POPF. Both DISPAIR (area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.62) and D-FRS (AUC 0.62) performed suboptimally, both in the pooled validation cohort combining every centre's data and centre-wise. An updated model, named DISPAIR-FRS, was constructed by combining the most stable predictors from the existing models and incorporating other readily available patient demographics, such as age, sex, transection site, pancreatic thickness at the transection site, and main pancreatic duct diameter at the transection site. Internal-external validation demonstrated an AUC of 0.72, a calibration slope of 0.93, and an intercept of -0.02 for the updated model.ConclusionThe combined updated model of DISPAIR and D-FRS named DISPAIR-FRS demonstrated better performance and can be accessed at www.tinyurl.com/the-dispair-frs.
| S-EPMC11926329 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Histopathologic grade of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important predictor of early recurrence and poor prognosis after curative treatments. This study aims to develop a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting HCC histopathologic grade and to validate its predictive performance in an independent external cohort. Clinical and imaging data of 403 consecutive HCC patients were retrospectively collected from two hospitals (265 and 138, respectively). Patients were categorized into poorly differentiated HCC and non-poorly differentiated HCC groups. A total of 851 radiomics features were extracted from the segmented tumor at the hepatobiliary phase images. Three classifiers, logistic regression (LR), support vector machine, and Adaboost were adopted for modeling. The areas under the curve of the three models were 0.70, 0.67, and 0.61, respectively, in the external test cohort. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was the only significant clinicopathological variable associated with HCC grading (odds ratio: 2.75). When combining AFP, the LR+AFP model showed the best performance, with an AUC of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) in the external test cohort. A radiomics model based on gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI was constructed in this study to discriminate HCC with different histopathologic grades. Its good performance indicates a promise in the preoperative prediction of HCC differentiation levels.
| S-EPMC9914153 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo validate preoperative dynamic CT and fecal elastase-1 level in predicting the development of pancreatic fistulae after pancreatoduodenectomy.Materials and methodsFor 146 consecutive patients, CT attenuation values of the nontumorous pancreatic parenchyma were retrospectively measured on precontrast, arterial and equilibrium phase images for calculation of enhancement ratios. CT enhancement ratios and preoperative fecal elastase-1 levels were correlated with the development of pancreatic fistulae using independent t-test, logistic regression models, ROC analysis, Youden method and tree analysis.ResultsThe mean value of enhancement ratio on equilibrium phase was significantly higher (p = 0.001) in the patients without pancreatic fistula (n = 107; 2.26±3.63) than in the patients with pancreatic fistula (n = 39; 1.04±0.51); in the logistic regression analyses, it was significant predictor for the development of pancreatic fistulae (odds ratio = 0.243, p = 0.002). The mean preoperative fecal elastase-1 levels were higher (odds ratio = 1.003, p = 0.034) in the pancreatic fistula patients than other patients, but there were no significant differences in the areas under the curve between the prediction values of CT enhancement ratios and fecal elastase-1 combined and those of CT enhancement ratios alone (P = 0.897, p = 0.917) on ROC curve analysis. Tree analysis revealed that the CT enhancement ratio was more powerful predictor of pancreatic fistula than fecal elastase-1 levels.ConclusionThe preoperative CT enhancement ratio of pancreas acquired at equilibrium phase regardless of combination with fecal elastase-1 levels might be a useful predictor of the risk of developing a pancreatic fistula following pancreatoduodenectomy.
| S-EPMC5426704 | biostudies-literature
Project description:<h4>Background
| S-EPMC9394016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReintubation after lung cancer resection is an important quality metric because of increased disability, mortality and cost. However, no validated predictive instrument is in use to reduce reintubation after lung resection. This study aimed to create and validate the PRediction Of REintubation After Lung cancer resection (PROREAL) score.MethodsThe study analyzed lung resection cases from 2 university hospitals. The primary end point was reintubation within 7 days after surgery. Predictors were selected through backward stepwise logistic regression and bootstrap resampling. The investigators used reclassification and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses to assess score performance and compare it with an established score for all surgical patients (Score for Prediction of Postoperative Respiratory Complications [SPORC]).ResultsThe study included 2672 patients who underwent resection for lung cancer (1754, development cohort; 918, validation cohort) between 2008 and 2020, of whom 71 (2.7%) were reintubated within 7 days after surgery. Identified score variables were surgical extent and approach, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, heart failure, renal disease, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide. The score achieved excellent discrimination in the development cohort (ROC AUC, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94) and good discrimination in the validation cohort (ROC AUC, 0.74, 95% CI; 0.66-0.82), thus outperforming the SPORC in both cohorts (P < .001 and P = .018, respectively; validation cohort net reclassification improvement, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.18-0.60; P = .001). The score cutoff of ≥5 yielded a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI, 72-95) and a specificity of 81% (95% CI,79-83) in the development cohort.ConclusionsA simple score (PROREAL) specific to lung cancer predicts postoperative reintubation more accurately than the nonspecific SPORC score. Operative candidates at risk may be identified for preventive intervention or alternative oncologic therapy.
| S-EPMC11651361 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe current study aimed to comprehensively analyze the clinical prognostic factors of malignant esophageal fistula (MEF). Furthermore, this study sought to establish and validate prognostic nomograms incorporating radiomics and clinical factors to predict overall survival and median survival after fistula for patients with MEF.MethodsThe records of 76 patients with MEF were retrospectively analyzed. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to screen independent prognostic factors and develop clinical nomograms. Radiomic features were extracted from prefistula CT images and post fistula CT images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Cox regression algorithm was used to filter radiomic features and avoid overfitting. Radiomic signature was a linear combination of optimal features and corresponding coefficients. The joint prognostic nomograms was constructed by radiomic signatures and clinical features. All models were validated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), caliberation and bootstrap validation.ResultsFor overall survival, age, prealbumin, KPS and interval between diagnosis of esophageal cancer and fistula were identified as independent prognostic factors and incorporated into the clinical nomogram. Age, prealbumin, serum albumin, KPS and neutrophil proportion were selected for the clinical nomogram of post fistula survival. The C-index of overall survival nomogram was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.645-0.793) and that was 0.722 (95% CI: 0.653-0.791) in the post fistula survival nomogram. The radiomic signature developed by radiomic features of prefistula CT showed a significant correlation with both overall survival and post fistula survival. The C-index of joint nomogarm for overall survival and post fistula survival was 0.831 (95% CI: 0.757-0.905) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.686-0.854), respectively. The calibration curve showed the joint nomograms outperformed the clinical ones.ConclusionsThe study presents nomograms incorporating independent clinical risk factors and radiomic signature to predict the prognosis of MEF. This prognostic classification system has the potential to guide therapeutic decisions for patients with malignant esophageal fistulas.
| S-EPMC8636210 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportancePostoperative pancreatic fistula is a potentially life-threatening complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. Evidence for best management is lacking.ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical outcome of patients undergoing catheter drainage compared with relaparotomy as primary treatment for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy.Design, setting, and participantsA multicenter, retrospective, propensity-matched cohort study was conducted in 9 centers of the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Group from January 1, 2005, to September 30, 2013. From a cohort of 2196 consecutive patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy, 309 patients with severe pancreatic fistula were included. Propensity score matching (based on sex, age, comorbidity, disease severity, and previous reinterventions) was used to minimize selection bias. Data analysis was performed from January to July 2016.ExposuresFirst intervention for pancreatic fistula: catheter drainage or relaparotomy.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary end point was in-hospital mortality; secondary end points included new-onset organ failure.ResultsOf the 309 patients included in the analysis, 209 (67.6%) were men, and mean (SD) age was 64.6 (10.1) years. Overall in-hospital mortality was 17.8% (55 patients): 227 patients (73.5%) underwent primary catheter drainage and 82 patients (26.5%) underwent primary relaparotomy. Primary catheter drainage was successful (ie, survival without relaparotomy) in 175 patients (77.1%). With propensity score matching, 64 patients undergoing primary relaparotomy were matched to 64 patients undergoing primary catheter drainage. Mortality was lower after catheter drainage (14.1% vs 35.9%; P = .007; risk ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.20-0.76). The rate of new-onset single-organ failure (4.7% vs 20.3%; P = .007; risk ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.03-0.60) and new-onset multiple-organ failure (15.6% vs 39.1%; P = .008; risk ratio, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20-0.77) were also lower after primary catheter drainage.Conclusions and relevanceIn this propensity-matched cohort, catheter drainage as first intervention for severe pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy was associated with a better clinical outcome, including lower mortality, compared with primary relaparotomy.
| S-EPMC5831426 | biostudies-literature