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Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

ABSTRACT: In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down precursors dominate in the tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests. The bottom-up precursors dominate in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs. Our study identifies areas where wildfires are governed by fuel conditions and hence where fuel management practices may be more effective. Moreover, our study also highlights that top-down and bottom-up precursors show complementary wildfire predictability across timescales. Seasonal or interannual predictions are feasible in regions where bottom-up precursors dominate.

SUBMITTER: Qu Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10603132 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

Qu Yuquan Y Miralles Diego G DG Veraverbeke Sander S Vereecken Harry H Montzka Carsten C

Nature communications 20231026 1

In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down p ...[more]

PMID: 37884516

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Project description:Recent studies have emphasized the importance of multiplex networks--interdependent networks with shared nodes and different types of connections--in systems primarily outside of neuroscience. Though the multiplex properties of networks are frequently not considered, most networks are actually multiplex networks and the multiplex specific features of networks can greatly affect network behavior (e.g. fault tolerance). Thus, the study of networks of neurons could potentially be greatly enhanced using a multiplex perspective. Given the wide range of temporally dependent rhythms and phenomena present in neural systems, we chose to examine multiplex networks of individual neurons with time scale dependent connections. To study these networks, we used transfer entropy--an information theoretic quantity that can be used to measure linear and nonlinear interactions--to systematically measure the connectivity between individual neurons at different time scales in cortical and hippocampal slice cultures. We recorded the spiking activity of almost 12,000 neurons across 60 tissue samples using a 512-electrode array with 60 micrometer inter-electrode spacing and 50 microsecond temporal resolution. To the best of our knowledge, this preparation and recording method represents a superior combination of number of recorded neurons and temporal and spatial recording resolutions to any currently available in vivo system. We found that highly connected neurons ("hubs") were localized to certain time scales, which, we hypothesize, increases the fault tolerance of the network. Conversely, a large proportion of non-hub neurons were not localized to certain time scales. In addition, we found that long and short time scale connectivity was uncorrelated. Finally, we found that long time scale networks were significantly less modular and more disassortative than short time scale networks in both tissue types. As far as we are aware, this analysis represents the first systematic study of temporally dependent multiplex networks among individual neurons.

Dataset Information

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

Publications

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

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