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Spatio-Temporal Determinants of Dengue Epidemics in the Central Region of Burkina Faso.

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and determinants of the 2017 dengue epidemic in Burkina Faso. A principal component analysis of meteorological and environmental factors was performed to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. An initial generalized additive model assessed the impact of the components derived from this analysis on dengue incidence. Dengue incidence increased mainly with relative humidity, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index and minimum temperature with an 8-week lag. A Kulldoff Satscan scan was used to identify high-risk dengue clusters, and a second generalized additive model assessed the risk of a health area being at high risk according to land-use factors. The spatio-temporal distribution of dengue fever was heterogeneous and strongly correlated with meteorological factors. The rural communes of Sabaa and Koubri were the areas most at risk. This study provides useful information for planning targeted dengue control strategies in Burkina Faso.

SUBMITTER: Ouattara CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10675449 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatio-Temporal Determinants of Dengue Epidemics in the Central Region of Burkina Faso.

Ouattara Cheick Ahmed CA Traore Tiandiogo Isidore TI Ouedraogo Boukary B Sylla Bry B Traore Seydou S Meda Clement Ziemle CZ Sangare Ibrahim I Savadogo Leon Blaise G LBG

Tropical medicine and infectious disease 20231025 11

The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and determinants of the 2017 dengue epidemic in Burkina Faso. A principal component analysis of meteorological and environmental factors was performed to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. An initial generalized additive model assessed the impact of the components derived from this analysis on dengue incidence. Dengue incidence increased mainly with relative humidity, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation in ...[more]

PMID: 37999601

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of Burkina Faso, taking into account meteorological factors. METHODS:Drawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). Meteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. The impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. A change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. For each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection. RESULTS:Malaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. The first and second PCA components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. The impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. A significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. Three transmission periods were detected: low (16.8-29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7-84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7-32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). The location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods. CONCLUSION:This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria incidence around the capital Ouagadougou, in the central region of Burkina Faso. Despite increasing efforts in fighting the disease, malaria incidence remained high and increased over the period of study. Hotspots, particularly those detected for low transmission periods, should be investigated further to uncover the local environmental and behavioural factors of transmission, and hence to allow for the development of better targeted control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundRapidly increasing temperatures in the mountain region of Nepal and recent reports of dengue fever and lymphatic filariasis cases from mountainous areas of central Nepal prompted us to study the spatio-temporal distribution of the vectors of these two diseases along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted a longitudinal study in four distinct physiographical regions of central Nepal from September 2011 to February 2012. We used BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps to capture adult mosquitoes. We found the geographical distribution of the dengue virus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus along our study transect to extend up to 1,310 m altitude in the Middle Mountain region (Kathmandu). The distribution of the lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus extended up to at least 2,100 m in the High Mountain region (Dhunche). Statistical analysis showed a significant effect of the physiographical region and month of collection on the abundance of A. aegypti and C. quinquefasciatus only. BG-Sentinel traps captured significantly higher numbers of A. aegypti than CDC light traps. The meteorological factors temperature, rainfall and relative humidity had significant effects on the mean number of A. aegypti per BG-Sentinel trap. Temperature and relative humidity were significant predictors of the number of C. quinquefasciatus per CDC light trap. Dengue fever and lymphatic filariasis cases had previously been reported from all vector positive areas except Dhunche which was free of known lymphatic filariasis cases.Conclusions/significanceWe conclude that dengue virus vectors have already established stable populations up to the Middle Mountains of Nepal, supporting previous studies, and report for the first time the distribution of lymphatic filariasis vectors up to the High Mountain region of this country. The findings of our study should contribute to a better planning and scaling-up of mosquito-borne disease control programmes in the mountainous areas of Nepal.

Dataset Information

Spatio-Temporal Determinants of Dengue Epidemics in the Central Region of Burkina Faso.

Publications

Spatio-Temporal Determinants of Dengue Epidemics in the Central Region of Burkina Faso.

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