Dataset Information

Using machine learning to forecast domestic homicide via police data and super learning.

ABSTRACT: We explore the feasibility of using machine learning on a police dataset to forecast domestic homicides. Existing forecasting instruments based on ordinary statistical instruments focus on non-fatal revictimization, produce outputs with limited predictive validity, or both. We implement a "super learner," a machine learning paradigm that incorporates roughly a dozen machine learning models to increase the recall and AUC of forecasting using any one model. We purposely incorporate police records only, rather than multiple data sources, to illustrate the practice utility of the super learner, as additional datasets are often unavailable due to confidentiality considerations. Using London Metropolitan Police Service data, our model outperforms all extant domestic homicide forecasting tools: the super learner detects 77.64% of homicides, with a precision score of 18.61% and a 71.04% Area Under the Curve (AUC), which, collectively and severely, are assessed as "excellent." Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.

SUBMITTER: Verrey J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10739734 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using machine learning to forecast domestic homicide via police data and super learning.

Verrey Jacob J Ariel Barak B Harinam Vincent V Dillon Luke L

Scientific reports 20231221 1

We explore the feasibility of using machine learning on a police dataset to forecast domestic homicides. Existing forecasting instruments based on ordinary statistical instruments focus on non-fatal revictimization, produce outputs with limited predictive validity, or both. We implement a "super learner," a machine learning paradigm that incorporates roughly a dozen machine learning models to increase the recall and AUC of forecasting using any one model. We purposely incorporate police records ...[more]

PMID: 38129649

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Project description:BackgroundIn China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue.Methodology/principal findingsWeekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China.Conclusion and significanceThe proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Project description:MotivationNetwork analysis and unsupervised machine learning processing of single-molecule localization microscopy of caveolin-1 (Cav1) antibody labeling of prostate cancer cells identified biosignatures and structures for caveolae and three distinct non-caveolar scaffolds (S1A, S1B and S2). To obtain further insight into low-level molecular interactions within these different structural domains, we now introduce graphlet decomposition over a range of proximity thresholds and show that frequency of different subgraph (k = 4 nodes) patterns for machine learning approaches (classification, identification, automatic labeling, etc.) effectively distinguishes caveolae and scaffold blobs.ResultsCaveolae formation requires both Cav1 and the adaptor protein CAVIN1 (also called PTRF). As a supervised learning approach, we applied a wide-field CAVIN1/PTRF mask to CAVIN1/PTRF-transfected PC3 prostate cancer cells and used the random forest classifier to classify blobs based on graphlet frequency distribution (GFD). GFD of CAVIN1/PTRF-positive (PTRF+) and -negative Cav1 clusters showed poor classification accuracy that was significantly improved by stratifying the PTRF+ clusters by either number of localizations or volume. Low classification accuracy (<50%) of large PTRF+ clusters and caveolae blobs identified by unsupervised learning suggests that their GFD is specific to caveolae. High classification accuracy for small PTRF+ clusters and caveolae blobs argues that CAVIN1/PTRF associates not only with caveolae but also non-caveolar scaffolds. At low proximity thresholds (50-100 nm), the caveolae groups showed reduced frequency of highly connected graphlets and increased frequency of completely disconnected graphlets. GFD analysis of single-molecule localization microscopy Cav1 clusters defines changes in structural organization in caveolae and scaffolds independent of association with CAVIN1/PTRF.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Dataset Information

Using machine learning to forecast domestic homicide via police data and super learning.

Publications

Using machine learning to forecast domestic homicide via police data and super learning.

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