Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades.

ABSTRACT: Global heating of the Earth system is unequivocal. However, detecting an acceleration of Earth heating has remained elusive to date, despite suggestive evidence of a potential increase in heating rates. In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, the warming of the world ocean has accelerated at a relatively consistent pace of 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m²)/decade, while the land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited an accelerated pace of 0.013 ± 0.003 (W/m²)/decade. This has led to a substantial increase in ocean warming, with a magnitude of 0.91 ± 0.80 W/m² between the decades 1960-1970 and 2010-2020, which overlies substantial decadal-scale variability in ocean warming of up to 0.6 W/m². Our findings withstand a wide range of sensitivity analyses and are consistent across different observation-based datasets. The long-term acceleration of Earth warming aligns qualitatively with the rise in CO₂ concentrations and the decline in aerosol concentration during the same period, but further investigations are necessary to properly attribute these changes.

SUBMITTER: Miniere A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10752897 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature