Project description:Unraveling the precursory signals of potentially destructive earthquakes is crucial to understand the Earth's crust dynamics and to provide reliable seismic warnings. Earthquake precursors are ambiguous, but recent experimental studies suggest that robust warning signs may precede large seismic events in the short (day-to-months) term. Here, we show that the M6.4-M7.1 2019 Ridgecrest sequence (California) and the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake (Alaska) were preceded by up to ~3 months of tectonic unrest on regional scales, as evidenced by abnormal low-magnitude seismicity spreading over the ~15-25% of Southern California and Southcentral Alaska. This precursory unrest has been discovered with an algorithm that integrates an innovative random forest machine learning approach and statistical features built from earthquake catalogs. Supported by a novel suite of finite element solid mechanics models, we propose that precursory, abnormal, low-magnitude seismicity arises if the pore fluid pressure within large fault segments escalates significantly as they approach failure, which leads to major uneven changes in the regional stress field. Our findings and method may open up new perspectives for surveillance agencies to anticipate when a region approaches an earthquake of great magnitude weeks to months before it occurs.
Project description:Rock materials show dramatic dynamic weakening in large-displacement (m), high-velocity (∼1 m/s) friction experiments, providing a mechanism for the generation of large, natural earthquakes. However, whether such weakening occurs during induced M3-4 earthquakes (dm displacements) is unknown. We performed rotary-shear experiments on simulated fault gouges prepared from the source-, reservoir- and caprock formations present in the seismogenic Groningen gas field (Netherlands). Water-saturated gouges were subjected to a slip pulse reaching a peak circumferential velocity of 1.2-1.7 m/s and total displacements of 13-20 cm, at 2.5-20 MPa normal stress. The results show 22%-81% dynamic weakening within 5-12 cm of slip, depending on normal stress and gouge composition. At 20 MPa normal stress, dynamic weakening from peak friction coefficients of 0.4-0.9 to 0.19-0.27 was observed, probably through thermal pressurization. We infer that similar effects play a key role during induced seismic slip on faults in the Groningen and other reservoir systems.
Project description:Advancing production from the Groningen gas field to full depletion generates substantial, field-scale deformation, and surface subsidence. Quantifying associated risk requires understanding physical processes in the subsurface, in particular those related to deformation of the Permian sandstone reservoir. Here, we report the results of a large experimental study, using fresh core material taken from the center of the field. By subjecting the material to depletion and slight unloading, complemented with a range of rock property measurements, we determine what rock physical properties control production-induced compaction in the material. Our results show that, although a large part of the deformation can be explained by classical linear poroelasticity, the contribution of inelastic (permanent) deformation is also significant. In fact, it increases with progressing pressure depletion, i.e. with increasing production. Utilizing univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we explain the additional inelastic deformation by direct effects of porosity, packing, and mineral composition. These proxies are in turn related to the depositional setting of the Permian reservoir. Our findings suggest that field-scale subsidence may not only be related to the often-used rock porosity, but also to packing, and composition, hence the local depositional environment. This motivates alternative assessments of human-induced mechanical effects in sedimentary systems.
Project description:We investigated the frictional strength recovery (healing) and subsequent reactivation and slip-weakening behavior of simulated fault gouges derived from key stratigraphic units in the seismogenic Groningen gas field (N. E. Netherlands). Direct-shear, slide-hold-slide (SHS) experiments were performed at in situ conditions of 100 °C, 40 MPa effective normal stress and 10-15 MPa pore fluid pressure (synthetic formation brine). Sheared gouges were allowed to heal for periods up to 100 days before subsequent reshearing. The initial coefficient of (steady) sliding friction μ was highest in the Basal Zechstein caprock (μ = 0.65 ± 0.02) and Slochteren sandstone reservoir (μ = 0.61 ± 0.02) gouges, and the lowest in the Ten Boer claystone at the reservoir top (μ = 0.38 ± 0.01) and in the Carboniferous shale substrate (μ ≈ 0.45). Healing and subsequent reactivation led to a marked increase (∆μ) in (static) friction coefficient of up to ~0.16 in Basal Zechstein and ~0.07 in Slochteren sandstone gouges for the longest hold periods investigated, followed by a sharp strength drop (up to ~25%) and slip-weakening trajectory. By contrast, the Ten Boer and Carboniferous gouges showed virtually no healing or strength drop. Healing rates in the Basal Zechstein and Slochteren sandstone gouges were significantly affected by the stiffness of different machines used, in line with the Ruina slip law, and with a microphysical model for gouge healing. Our results point to marked stratigraphic variation in healed frictional strength and healing rate of faults in the Groningen system, and high seismogenic potential of healed faults cutting the reservoir and Basal Zechstein caprock units, upon reactivation.
Project description:The recent surge of seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas is related to fluid disposal. Evidences suggest that critical parameters are the injection volume as well as injection depth but dominant physical processes and a corresponding model to describe the physics are still not clear. We analyse the spatio-temporal distribution of induced earthquakes in the basement and find visible signatures of pore pressure diffusion and poroelastic coupling, features which strongly resemble seismicity induced by the filling of artificial lakes, so-called reservoir-induced seismicity. We developed a first-principle model of underground reservoir-induced seismicity. The physics of the model are based upon the combined mechanisms of fluid mass added to the pore-space of the injection layer and acting as a normal stress on the basement surface, pore-fluid pressure diffusion in the basement as well as poroelastic coupling contributing to the pore-fluid pressure and stress. Furthermore, we demonstrate that underground reservoir-induced seismicity occurs preferably in normal faulting and strike-slip settings, the latter being prevalent in Oklahoma. Our model explains observed injection volume and depth dependence of the seismicity and should be considered as a basis for future hazard prediction and prevention as well as for planning possible disposal sites.
Project description:Between 1957 and 1982, water flooding was conducted to improve petroleum production in the Cogdell oil field north of Snyder, TX, and a contemporary analysis concluded this induced earthquakes that occurred between 1975 and 1982. The National Earthquake Information Center detected no further activity between 1983 and 2005, but between 2006 and 2011 reported 18 earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and greater. To investigate these earthquakes, we analyzed data recorded by six temporary seismograph stations deployed by the USArray program, and identified 93 well-recorded earthquakes occurring between March 2009 and December 2010. Relocation with a double-difference method shows that most earthquakes occurred within several northeast-southwest-trending linear clusters, with trends corresponding to nodal planes of regional focal mechanisms, possibly indicating the presence of previously unidentified faults. We have evaluated data concerning injection and extraction of oil, water, and gas in the Cogdell field. Water injection cannot explain the 2006-2011 earthquakes, especially as net volumes (injection minus extraction) are significantly less than in the 1957-1982 period. However, since 2004 significant volumes of gases including supercritical CO2 have been injected into the Cogdell field. The timing of gas injection suggests it may have contributed to triggering the recent seismic activity. If so, this represents an instance where gas injection has triggered earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and larger. Further modeling studies may help evaluate recent assertions suggesting significant risks accompany large-scale carbon capture and storage as a strategy for managing climate change.
Project description:Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the "Istanbul seismic gap") has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5-5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain.
Project description:Earthquakes are frequently accompanied by public reports of audible low-frequency noises. In 2018, public reports of booms or thunder-like noises were linked to induced earthquakes during an Engineered Geothermal System project in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. In response, two microphone arrays were deployed to record and study these acoustic signals while stimulation at the drill site continued. During the 11 day deployment, we find 39 earthquakes accompanied by possible atmospheric acoustic signals. Moment magnitudes of these events ranged from [Formula: see text] to 1.87 with located depths of 4.8-6.5 km. Analysis of the largest event revealed a broadband frequency content, including in the audible range, and high apparent velocities across the arrays. We conclude that the audible noises were generated by local ground reverberation during the arrival of seismic body waves. The inclusion of acoustic monitoring at future geothermal development projects will be beneficial for studying seismic-to-acoustic coupling during sequences of induced earthquakes.
Project description:The Coulomb explosion of tribromomethane (bromoform, CHBr3) induced by 28 fs near-infrared laser pulses is investigated by three-dimensional coincidence ion momentum imaging. We focus on the fragmentation into three, four, and five ionic fragments measured in coincidence and present different ways of visualizing the three-dimensional momentum correlations. We show that the experimentally observed momentum correlations for 4- and 5-fold coincidences are well reproduced by classical Coulomb explosion simulations and contain information about the structure of the parent molecule that could be used to differentiate structural isomers formed, for example, in a pump-probe experiment. Our results thus provide a clear path toward visualizing structural dynamics in polyatomic molecules by strong-field-induced Coulomb explosion imaging.
Project description:Parahydrogen induced polarization was employed to prepare a relatively long-lived correlated nuclear spin state between methylene and methyl protons in propane gas. Conventionally, such states are converted into a strong NMR signal enhancement by transferring the reaction product to a high magnetic field in an adiabatic longitudinal transport after dissociation engenders net alignment (ALTADENA) experiment. However, the relaxation time T1 of ∼0.6 s of the resulting hyperpolarized propane is too short for potential biomedical applications. The presented alternative approach employs low-field MRI to preserve the initial correlated state with a much longer decay time TLLSS =(4.7±0.5) s. While the direct detection at low-magnetic fields (e.g. 0.0475 T) is challenging, we demonstrate here that spin-lock induced crossing (SLIC) at this low magnetic field transforms the long-lived correlated state into an observable nuclear magnetization suitable for MRI with sub-millimeter and sub-second spatial and temporal resolution, respectively. Propane is a non-toxic gas, and therefore, these results potentially enable low-cost high-resolution high-speed MRI of gases for functional imaging of lungs and other applications.