Dataset Information

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.

ABSTRACT: When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source's infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model-which make use of different information within a tree-suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

SUBMITTER: Goldberg EE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10776241 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.

Goldberg Emma E EE Lundgren Erik J EJ Romero-Severson Ethan O EO Leitner Thomas T

Molecular biology and evolution 20240101 1

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described metho ...[more]

PMID: 38149995

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Project description:Reduced-representation genome sequencing represents a new source of data for systematics, and its potential utility in interspecific phylogeny reconstruction has not yet been explored. One approach that seems especially promising is the use of inexpensive short-read technologies (e.g., Illumina, SOLiD) to sequence restriction-site associated DNA (RAD)--the regions of the genome that flank the recognition sites of restriction enzymes. In this study, we simulated the collection of RAD sequences from sequenced genomes of different taxa (Drosophila, mammals, and yeasts) and developed a proof-of-concept workflow to test whether informative data could be extracted and used to accurately reconstruct "known" phylogenies of species within each group. The workflow consists of three basic steps: first, sequences are clustered by similarity to estimate orthology; second, clusters are filtered by taxonomic coverage; and third, they are aligned and concatenated for "total evidence" phylogenetic analysis. We evaluated the performance of clustering and filtering parameters by comparing the resulting topologies with well-supported reference trees and we were able to identify conditions under which the reference tree was inferred with high support. For Drosophila, whole genome alignments allowed us to directly evaluate which parameters most consistently recovered orthologous sequences. For the parameter ranges explored, we recovered the best results at the low ends of sequence similarity and taxonomic representation of loci; these generated the largest supermatrices with the highest proportion of missing data. Applications of the method to mammals and yeasts were less successful, which we suggest may be due partly to their much deeper evolutionary divergence times compared to Drosophila (crown ages of approximately 100 and 300 versus 60 Mya, respectively). RAD sequences thus appear to hold promise for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships in younger clades in which sufficient numbers of orthologous restriction sites are retained across species.

Dataset Information

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.

Publications

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.

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