Dataset Information

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and the probability of occurrence for 348 herbaceous species. We found that the probability of occurrence for 70% of species was negatively associated with nitrogen or sulfur deposition somewhere in the contiguous United States (56% for N, 51% for S). Of the species, 15% and 51% potentially decreased at all nitrogen and sulfur deposition rates, respectively, suggesting thresholds below the minimum deposition they receive. Although more species potentially increased than decreased with nitrogen deposition, increasers tended to be introduced and decreasers tended to be higher-value native species. More vulnerable species tended to be shorter with lower tissue nitrogen and magnesium. These relationships constitute predictive equations to estimate critical loads. These results demonstrate that many herbaceous species may be at risk from atmospheric deposition and can inform improvements to air quality policies in the United States and globally.

SUBMITTER: Clark CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10790282 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

Clark Christopher M CM Simkin Samuel M SM Allen Edith B EB Bowman William D WD Belnap Jayne J Brooks Matthew L ML Collins Scott L SL Geiser Linda H LH Gilliam Frank S FS Jovan Sarah E SE Pardo Linda H LH Schulz Bethany K BK Stevens Carly J CJ Suding Katharine N KN Throop Heather L HL Waller Donald M DM

Nature plants 20190701 7

Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposit ...[more]

PMID: 31263243

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Project description:Critical loads (CLs) and target loads (TLs) of atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) specify the thresholds of air pollution above which damage to ecosystems is expected to occur and are used to inform environmental regulation and natural resource management. Model estimates of CL and TL can vary for a given location, and these differences can be important for characterization of ecosystem effects from elevated S and N deposition. Moreover, TLs are used to evaluate associated timeframes of ecosystem recovery. We compared published CLs and TLs based on soil acidity criteria derived from steady-state versus dynamic models for terrestrial ecosystems. We examined the magnitude of differences in the CL/TL results from the two types of models for the same regions in the Eastern U.S. Results showed that CLs/TLs from dynamic models (or from steady state modeling using soil base cation weathering estimates from dynamic models) generally produce a broader range of values of acid-sensitivity, including lower CLs/TLs, as compared with a steady-state approach. Applications of dynamic biogeochemical models capable of developing CLs/TLs are relatively data intensive and typically limited to locations where measured soil and soil solution (or nearby stream water) chemistry are available for model parameterization, calibration, and testing. We recommend that CLs/TLs derived from dynamic models be used, where data permit, as they are likely more accurate and allow for evaluation of time-dependent phenomena and period needed for recovery. However, CLs derived from steady-state models remain a useful tool for understanding broad spatial patterns in soil acid-sensitivity throughout the U.S. Future work should focus on the development of more reliable model input parameters, particularly soil base cation weathering, and the extent to which CLs and TLs at a given location may vary and be altered with anticipated future climate change. In addition, dynamic models could be further developed to estimate CLs/TLs for nutrient N.

Project description:Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) has increased dramatically over pre-industrial levels, with many potential impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Quantitative thresholds, termed "critical loads" (CLs), have been developed to estimate the deposition rate above which damage is thought to occur. However, there remains no comprehensive comparison of when, where, and over what time periods individual CLs have been exceeded. We addressed this knowledge gap by combining several published data sources for historical and contemporary deposition, and overlaying these on six CL types from the National Critical Loads Database (NCLDv2.5; terrestrial acidification, aquatic acidification, lichen, nitrate leaching, plant community composition, and forest-tree health) to examine exceedances from 1800 to 2011. We expressed CLs as the minimum, 10th, and 50th percentiles within 12-km grid cells. Minimum CLs were relatively uniform across the country (200-400 eq·ha-1 ·yr-1 ), and have been exceeded for decades beginning in the early 20th century. The area exceeding minimum CLs peaked in the 1970s and 1980s, exposing 300,000 to 3 million km2 (depending on the CL type) to harmful levels of deposition, with a total area exceeded of 5.8 million km2 (~70% of the conterminous United States). Since then, deposition levels have dropped, especially for S, with modest reductions in exceedance by 2011 for all CL types, totaling 5.2 million km2 in exceedance. The 10th and 50th percentile CLs followed similar trends, but were not consistently available at the 12-km grid scale. We also examined near-term future deposition and exceedances in 2025 under current air quality regulations, and under various scenarios of climate change and additional nitrogen management controls. Current regulations were projected to reduce exceedances of any CL from 5.2 million km2 in 2011 to 4.8 million km2 in 2025. None of the additional N management or climate scenarios significantly affected areal exceedances, although exceedance severity declined. In total, it is clear that many CLs have been exceeded for decades, and are likely to remain so in the short term under current policies. Additionally, we suggest many areas for improvement to enhance our understanding of deposition and its effects to support informed decision making.

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Dataset Information

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

Publications

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

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