Project description:The paper analyzes the basic characteristics of China's sporting goods exports using data from the CEPII BACI database from 2007 to 2019, combined with the social network analysis method, and evaluates the policy effect of the "Belt and Road" initiative implementation on the impact of China's sporting goods exports using the difference-in-differences method. The research findings are as follows: 1) The overall scale of China's sporting goods exports has consistently expanded, marked by a rapid increase in the total export volume. The exported goods exhibit a comprehensive range of product categories, indicating an ongoing evolution in the structural composition of products. Geographically, the export destinations are widespread, covering a diverse range of countries. However, there is a noticeable concentration trend in sporting goods exports, with gymnastics and track and field equipment being the primary export commodities. These sporting goods predominantly penetrate markets in Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Eastern Europe. In the sporting goods trade network associated with the "Belt and Road" initiative, China holds a central role, with Thailand, Turkey, and Poland progressively advancing toward central positions. 2) The implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative has had a positive impact on China's sporting goods exports, and the policy's influence is particularly significant on the countries and regions along the "Belt and Road". The implementation of the policy does not favor the breathing growth of sporting goods exports, but it does promote the deepening of the export product. Based on these perspectives, it is imperative for China to establish a robust and sustainable trade network, proactively foster sporting diplomacy, maintain strategic focus, and enhance product quality to effectively propel the development of a sporting powerhouse.
Project description:This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10690-023-09410-1.
Project description:This paper examines the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on exports by Chinese cities. We use city-level export data at a monthly frequency from January 2018 through April 2020. Differences-in-differences estimates suggest cities in lockdown experienced a ceteris paribus 34 percentage points reduction in the year-on-year growth rate of exports. The lockdown impacted the intensive and extensive margin, with higher exit and lower new entry into foreign markets. The drop in exports was smaller in (i) coastal cities; (ii) cities with better-developed ICT infrastructure; and (iii) cities with a larger share of potential teleworkers. Time-sensitive and differentiated goods experienced a more pronounced decline in export growth. Global supply chain characteristics matter, with more upstream products and industries that had accumulated larger inventories experiencing a smaller decline in export growth. Also, products that relied more on imported (domestic) intermediates experienced a sharper (flatter) slowdown in export growth. The rapid recovery in cities' exports after lockdowns were lifted suggests the policy was cost-effective in terms of its effects on trade.
Project description:This study evaluates the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on direct and indirect carbon emissions from China's manufacturing goods production and trade processes with 64 countries along the belt and road (B&R). The analysis is based on China's 189 trading partners (countries and regions) and 26 industrial sectors using the Eora Global Multi-Regional Input-Output Database for 2001-2016 and the difference-in-differences method. The results indicate that to most countries along the B&R, the carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing industry exports exceed import-carbon emissions. Energy and heavy industries are the main net exporters of carbon emissions. It is noted that the BRI significantly increases the carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports. The BRI's effect is more obvious in energy and heavy manufacturing, in Maritime Silk Road countries and in developing countries along the B&R. While the BRI fosters carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports by promoting export volume, and reduces them by promoting low-carbon technological innovation, improving China's relative position in the global value chain in the region does not affect carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports. Our findings lead to several important policy implications at a time when the region is experiencing enormous challenges in reducing CO2 emissions.
Project description:This paper combines a Granger causality test and a VAR model to investigate the relationships among oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), and China's industrial economic growth. Based on monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we reveal that GEPU and world oil prices jointly Granger cause China's industrial economic growth; world oil prices have a positive effect on China's industrial economic growth, while GEPU has a negative effect. Further analyses investigate the asymmetry effect of oil prices and find that the negative component shows a more significant impact on China's industrial economic growth. The results are robust to different oil price and EPU proxies.
Project description:The rapid development of China's textile industry (TI) has led to severe water environmental stress. Water environmental stress of China's TI mainly comes from large quantities of discharged wastewater and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The sustainable development of the TI is realized to achieve the decoupling between economic growth and water environmental stress. This study analyzes the decoupling elasticity results from wastewater discharge and COD discharge, respectively. Decoupling results show that TI's wastewater has strong decoupling from economic growth for three years (2002, 2013-2014) while COD has strong decoupling for six years (2002-2003, 2008, 2010, 2013-2014). The paper further calculates the decoupling elasticity results of the TI's three sub-sectors (manufacture of textile sector, manufacture of textile wearing and apparel sector, and manufacture of chemical fibers (MCF) sector), and calculates the factors that affect wastewater discharge. The decrement and rebound effects of wastewater discharge are analyzed based on calculated results. Decomposition results show that the scale factor is the most significant contributor to wastewater discharge, the intensity factor inhibits wastewater discharge, and the effect of the structure factor is not evident. The decrement effect of TI increases yearly, but the rebound effect shows that the absolute amount of wastewater discharge also increases. The rebound effect has declined since 2012. In the three sub-sectors, MCF's decrement effect is the strongest, and its rebound effect is the weakest, which indicate that MCF is the biggest contributor to the discharge reduction of China's TI.
Project description:We investigate how Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) drives the long-run components of volatilities and correlations in crude oil and U.S. industry-level stock markets. Using the modified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) and dynamic conditional correlation mixed data sampling (DCC-MIDAS) specifications, we find that GEPU is positively related to the long-run volatility of Financials and Consumer Discretionary industries; however, it is negatively related to Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Energy. Unlike the mixed role of GEPU in the long-run volatilities, the long-run correlations are all positively related to GEPU across the industries. Additionally, the rankings of the correlations of Energy and Materials are time-invariant and classified as high, with the little exception of the latter. The Consumer Staples industry is time-invariant in the low-ranking group. Our results are helpful to policy makers and investors with long-term concerns.
Project description:This paper analyzes the extent to which economic policy uncertainty affects presidential approval in four Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). Using panel (time-series cross-sectional) estimation methods, we show that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on presidential approval in our sample. A one-standard-deviation increase in the level of economic uncertainty reduces presidential approval by approximately 12 percent. Our results are consistent with the political economy model of Alesina et al. (1993), which shows that voters are less likely to re-elect the incumbent when faced with uncertainty about economic policy. Incumbent competence signalling can exarcerbate this effect.
Project description:As the foundation of the industrial economy, the equipment manufacturing industry takes an important position on the China-EU trade. Based on the analysis of the overall trend and structure of China-EU equipment manufacturing industry trade in 2007-2020, this article involves the construction of trade concentration into trade dependence metrics, and then calculate the degree of interdependence between China and EU equipment manufacturing trade in 2020. The perspective of the intra-industry specialization will be used to analyze China-EU equipment manufacturing trade dependency in 2020. The results show that: (1) Although China-EU equipment manufacturing trade has continued to grow, China had an imbalanced export structure to the EU, and electronic equipment exports are too high; (2) Regardless of import or export, the trade dependence of the EU countries on China about equipment manufacturing was higher than that of China on European countries; (3) China mainly depended on the EU about the high-end equipment manufacturing trade, which brings risks to Chinese manufacturing supply chains.
Project description:In 2014, the Chinese government unveiled the New Urbanization Plan and Document No. 46, which profoundly influenced the development trajectory of the regional economy and sports industry. Using the coupling coordination model, this study aimed to assess the development progress of the sports industry and urban clusters economy. This study sampled Greater Bay Area urban clusters (GBAUC) and Yangtze River Delta urban clusters (YRDUC). The statistics covered one year after the release of the policies to date. We developed a total of 15 macro indicators to evaluate the sports industry and urban cluster economy as two distinct, yet interdependent, economic systems. Using the entropy weight method, we determined the standardized values and weights for the two systems before calculating the coupling coordination degree (D). Between 2015 and 2021, the sampled sports industry and urban clusters economy exhibited coordinated high growth across all economic metrics, with multiple sports industry metrics exhibiting double-digit growth. In 2015, both showed extreme imbalance: D of GBAUC = 0.092, D of YRDUC = 0.091. In 2017, both improved to bare coordination: D of GBAUC = 0.600, D of YRDUC = 0.566. In 2019, both reached well coordination: D of GBAUC = 0.851, D of YRDUC = 0.814. By 2021, both achieved quality coordination: D of GBAUC = 0.990, D of YRDUC = 1. This study provides the first evidence from the sports industry that China's new urbanization model and Document No. 46 are highly effective for synergistic regional economic growth.