Dataset Information

Development and validation of a predictive model for 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in intensive care units.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Based on the high prevalence and fatality rates associated with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP), this study endeavored to construct an innovative nomogram for early identification of individuals at high risk of all-cause death within a 30-day period among SCAP patients receiving intensive care units (ICU) treatment.

Methods

In this single-center, retrospective study, 718 SCAP patients were screened from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database for the development of a predictive model. A total of 97 patients eligible for inclusion were included from Chongqing General Hospital, China between January 2020 and July 2023 for external validation. Clinical data and short-term prognosis were collected. Risk factors were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multiple logistic regression analysis. The model's performance was evaluated through area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Eight risk predictors, including age, presence of malignant cancer, heart rate, mean arterial pressure, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, prothrombin time, and lactate levels were adopted in a nomogram. The nomogram exhibited high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.756-0.845) in the training set, 0.756 (95% CI: 0.693-0.816) in the internal validation set, 0.778 (95% CI: 0.594-0.893) in the external validation set concerning 30-day mortality. Meanwhile, the nomogram demonstrated effective calibration through well-fitted calibration curves. DCA confirmed the clinical application value of the nomogram.

Conclusion

This simple and reliable nomogram can help physicians assess the short-term prognosis of patients with SCAP quickly and effectively, and could potentially be adopted widely in clinical settings after more external validations.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10801213 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of a predictive model for 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in intensive care units.

Zhang Yu Y Peng Yuanyuan Y Zhang Wang W Deng Wei W

Frontiers in medicine 20240108

<h4>Background</h4>Based on the high prevalence and fatality rates associated with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP), this study endeavored to construct an innovative nomogram for early identification of individuals at high risk of all-cause death within a 30-day period among SCAP patients receiving intensive care units (ICU) treatment.<h4>Methods</h4>In this single-center, retrospective study, 718 SCAP patients were screened from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMI ...[more]

PMID: 38259861

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Project description:BackgroundHospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) is the most common hospital-acquired infection in China with substantial morbidity and mortality. But no specific risk assessment model has been well validated in patients with HAP. The aim of this study was to investigate the published risk assessment models that could potentially be used to predict 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments.MethodsThis study was a single-center, retrospective study. In total, 223 patients diagnosed with HAP from 2012 to 2017 were included in this study. Clinical and laboratory data during the initial 24 hours after HAP diagnosis were collected to calculate the pneumonia severity index (PSI); consciousness, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥65 years (CURB-65); Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA); and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores. The discriminatory power was tested by constructing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) were calculated.ResultsThe all-cause 30-day mortality rate was 18.4% (41/223). The PSI, CURB-65, SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (all P < 0.001). The discriminatory abilities of the APACHE II and SOFA scores were better than those of the CURB-65 and qSOFA scores (ROC AUC: APACHE II vs. CURB-65, 0.863 vs. 0.744, Z = 3.055, P = 0.002; APACHE II vs. qSOFA, 0.863 vs. 0.767, Z = 3.017, P = 0.003; SOFA vs. CURB-65, 0.856 vs. 0.744, Z = 2.589, P = 0.010; SOFA vs. qSOFA, 0.856 vs. 0.767, Z = 2.170, P = 0.030). The cut-off values we defined for the SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were 4, 14, and 1.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the APACHE II and SOFA scores determined during the initial 24 h after HAP diagnosis may be useful for the prediction of 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments. The qSOFA score may be a simple tool that can be used to quickly identify severe infections.

Project description:ImportanceRates of 30-day readmissions following hospitalization for pneumonia are used to publicly report on hospital performance and to set financial penalties for the worst-performing hospitals. However, the rate of avoidable readmission following hospitalization for pneumonia is undefined.ObjectiveTo assess how often 30-day readmissions following hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are avoidable.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed the results of an independent review of readmissions following hospitalization for CAP within 30 days among patients discharged from 2 large hospitals in France in 2014. Structured clinical records including clinical information (ie, baseline characteristics, physical examination, laboratory findings, x-ray or computed tomography scan findings, discharge plan, and treatments) for both index and readmission stays were independently reviewed by 4 certified board physicians. All consecutive adult patients hospitalized in 2014 with a diagnosis of CAP in our 2 eligible hospitals were eligible. All analyses presented were performed in March 2021.Main outcomes and measuresAvoidable readmission within 30 days of discharge from index hospitalization. The likelihood that a readmission was avoidable was quantified using latent class analysis based on the independent reviews. A readmission was considered avoidable if Bayes posterior probability exceeded 50%.ResultsThe total analytical sample consisted of 1150 index hospital stays with a diagnosis of CAP, which included 651 (56.6%) male patients. The median (IQR) age for all patients was 77.8 (IQR, 62.7-86.4) years. Out of the 1150 index hospital stays, 98 patients (8.5%) died in hospital, and 108 (9.4%) unplanned readmissions were found. Overall, 15 readmissions had a posterior probability of avoidability exceeding 0.50 (13.9% of the 108 unplanned readmissions; 95% CI, 8.0%-21.9%). The median (IQR) delay between the hospital discharge index and readmission was considerably shorter when readmission was deemed avoidable (4 [6-21] days vs 12 [2-18] days; P = .02).Conclusions and relevanceOnly a small number of readmissions following hospitalization for CAP were deemed avoidable, comprising less than 10% of all readmissions. Shorter time interval between hospitalization discharge and readmission was associated with avoidability.

Project description:ObjectivesThis study evaluates the impact of frailty, which is a state of increased vulnerability to stressors, on 30-day and 1-year mortality among elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The main hypothesis is that frailty is an independent predictor of prognosis in elderly CAP patients.DesignProspective, observational, follow-up cohort study.SettingA 2000-bed tertiary care hospital in Beijing, China.ParticipantsConsecutive CAP patients aged ≥65 years admitted to the geriatric department of our hospital between September 2017 and February 2019.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were all-cause mortality at 30 days and 1 year after hospital admission. The impact of frailty (defined by frailty phenotype) on 30-day and 1-year mortality of elderly patients with CAP was assessed by Cox regression analysis.ResultsThe cohort included 256 patients. The median (IQR) age was 86 (81-90) years, and 180 (70.3%) participants were men. A total of 171/256 (66.8%) patients were frail. The prevalence of frailty was significantly associated with older age, female gender, lower body mass index, comorbidities, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) and poor nutritional status. Frail participants were significantly more likely to have severe CAP (SCAP) than non-frail counterparts (28.65% vs 9.41%, p<0.001). The 1-year mortality risk was approximately threefold higher in frail patients (adjusted HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.69 to 4.39) than non-frail patients. Subgroup analysis of patients with SCAP showed that the 1-year mortality risk was approximately threefold higher in the frail group (adjusted HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.58 to 4.96) than in the non-frail group. The association between frailty and 30-day mortality was not significant.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that frailty is strongly associated with SCAP and higher 1-year mortality in elderly patients with CAP, and frailty should be detected early to improve the management of these patients.

Project description:BackgroundDespite the high mortality in patients with pneumonia admitted to an ICU, data on risk factors for death remain limited.MethodsIn this secondary analysis of PROTECT (Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial), we focused on the patients admitted to ICU with a primary diagnosis of pneumonia. The primary outcome for this study was 90-day hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was 90-day ICU mortality. Cox regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between baseline and time-dependent variables and hospital and ICU mortality.ResultsSix hundred sixty seven patients admitted with pneumonia (43.8 % females) were included in our analysis, with a mean age of 60.7 years and mean APACHE II score of 21.3. During follow-up, 111 patients (16.6 %) died in ICU and in total, 149 (22.3 %) died in hospital. Multivariable analysis demonstrated significant independent risk factors for hospital mortality including male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.5, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.1 - 2.2, p-value = 0.021), higher APACHE II score (HR = 1.2, 95 % CI: 1.1 - 1.4, p-value < 0.001 for per-5 point increase), chronic heart failure (HR = 2.9, 95 % CI: 1.6 - 5.4, p-value = 0.001), and dialysis (time-dependent effect: HR = 2.7, 95 % CI: 1.3 - 5.7, p-value = 0.008). Higher APACHE II score (HR = 1.2, 95 % CI: 1.1 - 1.4, p-value = 0.002 for per-5 point increase) and chronic heart failure (HR = 2.6, 95 % CI: 1.3 - 5.0, p-value = 0.004) were significantly related to risk of death in the ICU.ConclusionIn this study using data from a multicenter thromboprophylaxis trial, we found that male sex, higher APACHE II score on admission, chronic heart failure, and dialysis were independently associated with risk of hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU with pneumonia. While high illness severity score, presence of a serious comorbidity (heart failure) and need for an advanced life support (dialysis) are not unexpected risk factors of mortality, male sex might necessitate further exploration. More studies are warranted to clarify the effect of these risk factors on survival in critically ill patients admitted to ICU with pneumonia.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143 .

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a predictive model for 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in intensive care units.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development and validation of a predictive model for 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in intensive care units.

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