Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yan Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10870479 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundFollowing the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) in the United States and Mexico in April 2009, A(H1N1)pdm09 spread rapidly all over the world. There is a dearth of information about the epidemiology of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Africa, including Morocco. We describe the epidemiologic characteristics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Morocco during 2009-2010, including transmissibility and risk factors associated with fatal disease.MethodsWe implemented influenza surveillance for patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) at 136 private and public clinics for patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at 16 regional public hospitals from June 2009 through February 2010. Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from all enrolled patients, and samples were tested by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza viruses. We estimated the risk factors associated with fatal disease as well as the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the serial interval of the pandemic virus.ResultsFrom June 2009 through February 2010, we obtained 3937 specimens, of which 1452 tested positive for influenza virus. Of these, 1398 (96%) were A(H1N1)pdm09. Forty percent of specimens from ILI cases (1056 of 2646) and 27% from SARI cases (342 of 1291) were positive for A(H1N1)pdm09. Sixty-four deaths occurred among laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 SARI cases. Among these cases, those who had hypertension (age-adjusted odd ratio [aOR], 28.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-398.7), had neurological disorders (aOR, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.5-36.4), or were obese (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.6-31.1), as well as women of gestational age who were pregnant (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1-5.6), were at increased risk of death. Across the country, elevated numbers of locally acquired infections were detected 4 months after the detection of the first laboratory-confirmed case and coincided with the expected influenza season (October-January) in Morocco. We obtained an R(0) estimate of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.32-1.56) and a mean serial interval (±SD) of 2.3 ± 1.4 days (95% CI, 1.6-3.0).ConclusionWidespread but delayed community transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in Morocco in 2009, and A(H1N1)pdm09 became the dominant influenza virus subtype during the 2009-2010 influenza season. The transmissibility characteristics were similar to those observed in other countries.
| S-EPMC3572880 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.
| S-EPMC1933478 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
| S-EPMC2880578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prediction of the growth and decline of infectious disease incidence has advanced considerably in recent years. As these forecasts improve, their public health utility should increase, particularly as interventions are developed that make explicit use of forecast information. It is the task of the research community to increase the content and improve the accuracy of these infectious disease predictions. Presently, operational real-time forecasts of total influenza incidence are produced at the municipal and state level in the United States. These forecasts are generated using ensemble simulations depicting local influenza transmission dynamics, which have been optimized prior to forecast with observations of influenza incidence and data assimilation methods. Here, we explore whether forecasts targeted to predict influenza by type and subtype during 2003-2015 in the United States were more or less accurate than forecasts targeted to predict total influenza incidence. We found that forecasts separated by type/subtype generally produced more accurate predictions and, when summed, produced more accurate predictions of total influenza incidence. These findings indicate that monitoring influenza by type and subtype not only provides more detailed observational content but supports more accurate forecasting. More accurate forecasting can help officials better respond to and plan for current and future influenza activity.
| S-EPMC5860391 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2019 a low pathogenic H3N1 avian influenza virus (AIV) caused an outbreak in Belgian poultry farms, characterized by an unusually high mortality in chickens. Influenza A viruses of the H1 and H3 subtype can infect pigs and become established in swine populations. Therefore, the H3N1 epizootic raised concern about AIV transmission to pigs and from pigs to humans. Here, we assessed the replication efficiency of this virus in explants of the porcine respiratory tract and in pigs, using virus titration and/or RT-qPCR. We also examined transmission from directly, intranasally inoculated pigs to contact pigs. The H3N1 AIV replicated to moderate titers in explants of the bronchioles and lungs, but not in the nasal mucosa or trachea. In the pig infection study, infectious virus was only detected in a few lung samples collected between 1 and 3 days post-inoculation. Virus titers were between 1.7 and 4.8 log10 TCID50. In line with the ex vivo experiment, no virus was isolated from the upper respiratory tract of pigs. In the transmission experiment, we could not detect virus transmission from directly inoculated to contact pigs. An increase in serum antibody titers was observed only in the inoculated pigs. We conclude that the porcine respiratory tract tissue explants can be a useful tool to assess the replication efficiency of AIVs in pigs. The H3N1 AIV examined here is unlikely to pose a risk to swine populations. However, continuous risk assessment studies of emerging AIVs in pigs are necessary, since different virus strains will have different genotypic and phenotypic traits.
| S-EPMC9872060 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecently, four influenza viruses are circulating worldwide: A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata. However, information on the clinical differences among pediatric patients infected with four recently circulating influenza viruses is sparse.MethodsMedical records of pediatric patients (<20 years of age) diagnosed with influenza between the 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 influenza seasons were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical features were compared between (I) patients infected with influenza A (FluA) and influenza B (FluB) viruses, (II) patients infected with FluA when A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) circulated dominantly, and (III) patients infected with FluB when B/Victoria and B/Yamagata circulated dominantly.ResultsA total of 1,588 patients infected with FluA and 964 patients infected with FluB were included in this study. Patients infected with FluB were older (P<0.001) and more likely to report sore throat (P=0.002) than those infected with FluA. Otherwise, there were no significant differences in the clinical symptoms, diagnoses, and outcomes between patients infected with FluA and FluB. Overall, clinical features of influenza patients were similar regardless of the dominantly circulated subtype and lineage of the virus. In children aged ≤2 years, patients infected with FluB were more like to experience lower respiratory tract infection (P=0.034) and hospitalization (P=0.001) than those infected with FluA.ConclusionsThere were no significant clinical differences among pediatric patients infected with four recently circulating influenza viruses, except that FluB infection tended to be more severe than FluA infection in children aged ≤2 years.
| S-EPMC7882295 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess the effect of influenza virus type and subtype on disease severity among hospitalized influenza patients in Spain. We analyzed the cases of 8,985 laboratory-confirmed case-patients hospitalized for severe influenza by using data from a national surveillance system for the period 2010-2017. Hospitalized patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were significantly younger, more frequently had class III obesity, and had a higher risk for pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome than patients infected with influenza A(H3N2) or B (p<0.05). Hospitalized patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 also had a higher risk for intensive care unit admission, death, or both than patients with influenza A(H3N2) or B, independent of other factors. Determining the patterns of influenza-associated severity and how they might differ by virus type and subtype can help guide planning and implementation of adequate control and preventive measures during influenza epidemics.
| S-EPMC6986827 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have caused severe respiratory disease and death in poultry and human beings. Although most of the avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are of low pathogenicity and cause mild infections in birds, some subtypes including hemagglutinin H5 and H7 subtype cause HPAI. Therefore, sensitive and accurate subtyping of AIV is important to prepare and prevent for the spread of HPAI. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) can analyze the full-length sequence information of entire AIV genome at once, so this technology is becoming a more common in detecting AIVs and predicting subtypes. However, an analysis pipeline of NGS-based AIV sequencing data, including AIV subtyping, has not yet been established. Here, in order to support the pre-processing of NGS data and its interpretation, we developed a user-friendly tool, named prediction of avian influenza virus subtype (PAIVS). PAIVS has multiple functions that support the pre-processing of NGS data, reference-guided AIV subtyping, de novo assembly, variant calling and identifying the closest full-length sequences by BLAST, and provide the graphical summary to the end users.
| S-EPMC7120348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20-40 million people worldwide, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.
| S-EPMC7095078 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza A virus infects various animal species and transmits among different hosts, especially between humans and swine. Swine may serve as a mixing vessel to create new reassortants that could infect humans. Thus, monitoring and characterizing influenza viruses in swine are important in preventing interspecies transmission. We report the emergence and characterization of a novel H3N1 subtype of swine influenza virus (SIV) in the United States. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the H3N1 SIVs may have acquired the hemagglutinin gene from an H3N2 turkey isolate, the neuraminidase gene from a human H1N1 isolate, and the remaining genes from currently circulating SIVs. The H3N1 SIVs were antigenically related to the turkey virus. Lung lesions and nasal shedding occurred in swine infected with the H3N1 SIVs, suggesting the potential to transmit among swine and to humans. Further surveillance will help determine whether this novel subtype will continue to circulate in swine populations.
| S-EPMC3374457 | biostudies-literature