Dataset Information

Perioperative Ischemic Optic Neuropathy after Cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of a Preoperative Risk Prediction Model.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Previous studies identified risk factors for ischemic optic neuropathy (ION) after cardiac surgery; however, there is no easy-to-use risk calculator for the physician to identify high-risk patients for ION before cardiac surgery. The authors sought to develop and validate a simple-to-use predictive model and calculator to assist with preoperative identification of risk and informed consent for this rare but serious complication.

Design

Retrospective case-control study.

Setting

Hospital discharge records.

Patients

A total of 5,561,177 discharges in the National Inpatient Sample >18 years of age, with procedure codes for coronary artery bypass grafting, heart valve repair/replacement, or left ventricular assist device insertion.

Interventions

All patients had undergone cardiac surgery.

Measurements and main results

Known preoperative risk factors for ION after cardiac surgery were assessed to develop a risk score and prediction model. This model was validated internally using the split-sample method. There were 771 cases of ION among 5,561,177 patients in the National Inpatient Sample. The risk factors for ION used in the model were carotid artery stenosis, cataract, diabetic retinopathy, macular degeneration, glaucoma, male sex, and prior stroke; whereas uncomplicated diabetes decreased risk. With the internal validation, the predictive model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.66. A risk score cutoff ≥3 had 98.4% specificity.

Conclusions

This predictive model, based on previously identified preoperative factors, predicted risk of perioperative ION with a fair area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. This predictive model could enable screening to provide a more accurate risk assessment for ION, and consent process for cardiac surgery.

SUBMITTER: Shah SH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10874298 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Perioperative Ischemic Optic Neuropathy after Cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of a Preoperative Risk Prediction Model.

Shah Shikhar H SH Xiao Lan L Chen Yi-Fan YF Moss Heather E HE Rubin Daniel S DS Roth Steven S

Journal of cardiothoracic and vascular anesthesia 20220812 12

<h4>Objective</h4>Previous studies identified risk factors for ischemic optic neuropathy (ION) after cardiac surgery; however, there is no easy-to-use risk calculator for the physician to identify high-risk patients for ION before cardiac surgery. The authors sought to develop and validate a simple-to-use predictive model and calculator to assist with preoperative identification of risk and informed consent for this rare but serious complication.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective case-control study.<h ...[more]

PMID: 36114093

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Project description:ImportanceSemaglutide, a glucagonlike peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), has recently been implicated in cases of nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION), raising safety concerns in the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D).ObjectiveTo investigate the potential association between semaglutide and NAION in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network.Design, setting, and participantsThis was a retrospective study across 14 databases (6 administrative claims and 8 electronic health records). Included were adults with T2D taking semaglutide, other GLP-1RA (dulaglutide, exenatide), or non-GLP-1RA medications (empagliflozin, sitagliptin, glipizide) from December 1, 2017, to December 31, 2023. The incidence proportion and rate of NAION were calculated. Association between semaglutide and NAION was assessed using 2 approaches: an active-comparator cohort design comparing new users of semaglutide with those taking other GLP-1RAs and non-GLP-1RA drugs, and a self-controlled case-series (SCCS) analysis to compare individuals' risks during exposure and nonexposure periods for each drug. The cohort design used propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). The SCCS used conditional Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Network-wide HR and IRR estimates were generated using a random-effects meta-analysis model.ExposuresGLP-1RA and non-GLP-1RAs.Main outcomes and measuresNAION under 2 alternative definitions based on diagnosis codes: one more inclusive and sensitive, the other more restrictive and specific.ResultsThe study included 37.1 million individuals with T2D, including 810 390 new semaglutide users. Of the 43 620 new users of semaglutide in the Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database, 24 473 (56%) were aged 50 to 69 years, and 26 699 (61%) were female. The incidence rate of NAION was 14.5 per 100 000 person-years among semaglutide users. The HR for NAION among new users of semaglutide was not different compared with that of the non-GLP-1RAs using the sensitive NAION definition-empagliflozin (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.78-2.68; P = .12), sitagliptin (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.56-3.01; P = .27), and glipizide (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.66-2.28; P = .25). The risk was higher only compared with patients taking empagliflozin (HR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.16-4.46; P = .02) using the specific definition. SCCS analysis of semaglutide exposure showed an increased risk of NAION (meta-analysis IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14-1.54; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceResults of this study suggest a modest increase in the risk of NAION among individuals with T2D associated with semaglutide use, smaller than that previously reported, and warranting further investigation into the clinical implications of this association.

Project description:ImportanceThe association between nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) and an increased risk of stroke has been a subject of debate. However, multinational studies on this topic are scarce.ObjectiveTo evaluate the short-term and long-term stroke risk after NAION compared with a matched control group.Design, setting, and participantsThis global, retrospective, population-based cohort study used aggregated electronic health records from January 1, 2004, through March 19, 2024, sourced from the Global Collaborative Network of TriNetX, which includes data from over 152 million patients across 17 countries. Patients in the study were followed up for a maximum duration of 10 years. Patients with NAION and age-related cataract were included in the analysis. Those with stroke before the diagnosis of NAION and age-related cataract were excluded. Propensity score matching was applied to balance age, sex, race, ethnicity, comorbidities, and medication use.ExposureInternational Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis code for NAION or age-related cataract.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the relative risk (RR) of stroke (ICD-10 code I60-63) in the NAION cohort vs the matched controls. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify potential clinical factors associated with stroke within the NAION cohort.ResultsA total of 89 811 patients were identified in both the NAION (mean [SD] age, 57.2 [18.5] years; 38 678 men [43.1%]) and control (mean [SD] age, 57.0 [17.9] years; 40 014 men [44.6%]) cohorts after matching. The NAION cohort demonstrated a significantly higher all-stroke risk at all time points: 1 month (RR, 5.04; 95% CI, 4.41-5.78), 3 months (RR, 3.79; 95% CI, 3.40-4.21), 1 year (RR, 2.50; 95% CI, 2.32-2.70), 5 years (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.45-1.63), and 10 years (RR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.23-1.43). Sensitivity analysis in patients without comorbidities similarly revealed a significantly increased all-stroke risk across all intervals: 1 month (RR, 7.55; 95% CI, 4.74-12.03), 3 months (RR, 6.70; 95% CI, 4.48-10.04), 1 year (RR, 3.96; 95% CI, 2.94-5.34), 5 years (RR, 2.85; 95% CI, 2.18-3.72), and 10 years (RR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.25-2.26). Among all the clinical factors of interest, only hypertension was consistently associated with all subtypes of stroke following NAION.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study of patients with NAION found a significantly elevated risk of stroke compared with matched controls, independently of comorbidities. These findings underscore the importance of regular stroke workups following the onset of NAION.

Project description:Background contextPerioperative ischemic optic neuropathy (ION) is a devastating complication of spinal fusion surgery.PurposeTo develop predictive models of this blinding condition using a longitudinal medical administrative claims database, which provides temporal sequence of perioperative ischemic optic neuropathy and potential risk factors.DesignNested case control study.Patient sampleParticipants in Cliniformatics Data Mart medical claims database (2007-2017) with hospitalization involving lumbar or thoracic spinal fusion surgery and no history of ION.Outcome measuresPerioperative ION (or not) during hospitalization for lumbar or thoracic spinal fusion surgery.MethodsSixty-five ION cases and 106,871 controls were identified. Matched controls (n=211) were selected based on year of surgery and zip code. Chronic and perioperative variables were assigned based on medical claims codes. Least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO) penalized conditional logistic regression with 10-fold cross validation was used to select variables for the optimal predictive model from the subset of variables with p<.15 between cases and matched controls (unadjusted conditional logistic regression). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for the strata-independent matched and full sample.ResultsThe predictive model included age 57-65 years, male gender, diabetes with and without complications, chronic anemia, hypertension, heart failure, carotid stenosis, perioperative hemorrhage and perioperative organ damage. Area under ROC curve was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68, 0.82) for the matched sample and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.78) for the full sample.ConclusionsThis predictive model for ION in spine fusion considering chronic conditions and perioperative conditions is unique to date in its use of longitudinal medical claims data, inclusion of International Classification of Disease-10 codes and study of ophthalmic conditions as risk factors. Similar to other studies of this condition the multivariable model included age, male gender, perioperative organ damage and perioperative hemorrhage. Hypertension, chronic anemia and carotid artery stenosis were new predictive factors identified by this study.

Dataset Information

Perioperative Ischemic Optic Neuropathy after Cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of a Preoperative Risk Prediction Model.

Objective

Design

Setting

Patients

Interventions

Measurements and main results

Conclusions

Publications

Perioperative Ischemic Optic Neuropathy after Cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of a Preoperative Risk Prediction Model.

Similar Datasets

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