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Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

ABSTRACT: The pandemic caused millions of deaths around the world and forced governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of Coronavirus. Understanding the impact of social distancing measures on urban mobility and the number of COVID-19 cases allows governments to change public policies according to the evolution of the pandemic and plan ahead. Given the increasing rates of vaccination worldwide, immunization data may also represent an important predictor of COVID-19 cases. This study investigates the impact of urban mobility and vaccination upon COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using Prophet and ARIMA models to predict future outcomes. The developed models generated projections fairly close to real numbers, and some inferences were drawn through experimentation. Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic shortly after the first case was officially registered on February 25th, 2020. In response, several municipalities adopted lockdown (total or partial) measures to minimize the risk of new infections. Here, we propose prediction models which take into account mobility and vaccination data to predict new COVID-19 cases.

SUBMITTER: Dias E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10889860 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

Dias Eder E Diniz Alexandre M A AMA Souto Giovanna R GR Guerra Henrique L HL Marques-Neto Humberto Torres HT Malinowski Simon S Guimarães Silvio Jamil F SJF

PloS one 20240223 2

The pandemic caused millions of deaths around the world and forced governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of Coronavirus. Understanding the impact of social distancing measures on urban mobility and the number of COVID-19 cases allows governments to change public policies according to the evolution of the pandemic and plan ahead. Given the increasing rates of vaccination worldwide, immunization data may also represent an important predictor of COVID-19 cases. This study invest ...[more]

PMID: 38394233

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Project description:BackgroundThe pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has not only affected humans but also raised concerns about its transmission to wild animals, potentially creating natural reservoirs. Understanding these dynamics is critical for preventing future pandemics and developing control strategies. This study aims to investigate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in wild mammals at the Belo Horizonte Zoo in Brazil, analyzing the virus's evolution and zoonotic potential.MethodsThe study was conducted at the Belo Horizonte Zoo, Minas Gerais, Brazil, covering a diverse population of mammals. Oropharyngeal, rectal, and nasal swabs were collected from 47 captive animals between November 2021 and March 2023. SARS-CoV-2 presence was determined using RT-PCR, and positive samples were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. Consensus genomes were classified using Pangolin and NextClade tools, and a maximum likelihood phylogeny was inferred using IQ-Tree.ResultsOf the 47 animals tested, nine (19.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Positive samples included rectal, oropharyngeal, and nasal swabs, with the highest positivity in rectal samples. Three genomes were successfully sequenced, revealing two variants: VOC Alpha in a maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) and a fallow deer (Dama dama), and VOC Omicron in a western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla). Phylogenetic analysis indicated potential human-to-animal transmission, with animal genomes clustering close to human samples from the same region.ConclusionsThis study highlights the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in various wild mammal species at the Belo Horizonte Zoo, emphasizing the virus's zoonotic potential and the complexity of interspecies transmission. The detection of different variants suggests ongoing viral evolution and adaptation in new hosts. Continuous monitoring and genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife are essential for understanding its transmission dynamics and preventing future zoonotic outbreaks. These findings underscore the need for integrated public health strategies that include wildlife monitoring to mitigate the risks posed by emerging infectious diseases.

Project description:The global emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a serious threat to human and animal health. Recent studies have shown that synanthropic animals can act as reservoirs and disseminators of pathogens and resistant bacteria. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency, distribution, and antimicrobial susceptibility of staphylococcal species and Clostridioides difficile isolated from the feces of free-living rodents and marsupials from two urban parks in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. During a 12-month period, fecal samples from 159 free-living animals, including 136 rodents and 23 marsupials, were collected from two urban parks in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Staphylococcus spp. were more likely to be isolated from rodents than marsupials (p = 0.0164). Eight different staphylococcal species were isolated from 36 (26.5%) rodents and one marsupial (4.3%). S. saprophyticus (48.6%) was the most frequently isolated species, and almost a quarter of the isolates (24.3%) were resistant to at least one antimicrobial agent, four (10.8%) of which were multi-drug resistant (MDR). Two (5.4%) strains were resistant to cefoxitin and were then classified as methicillin-resistant staphylococci, and one also tested positive for the mecA gene. C. difficile was isolated from two rodents (1.5%), and one strain was toxigenic and classified as ribotype 064. One isolate was resistant to rifampicin, but both strains were susceptible to all other antimicrobials tested, including metronidazole and vancomycin. All C. difficile isolates and all staphylococcal strains resistant to antimicrobials were recovered from the same park. The present study suggests that free-living rodents in Belo Horizonte (Brazil) are mainly colonized by S. saprophyticus and may act as reservoirs of antimicrobial-resistant Staphylococcus spp. and C. difficile strains. This is the first study to evaluate the presence of staphylococci and C. difficile from free-living opossums and suggest a low fecal shedding of these organisms by these mammals.

Dataset Information

Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

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Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

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