Dataset Information

Evolutionary history of host trees amplifies the dilution effect of biodiversity on forest pests.

ABSTRACT: Biodiversity appears to strongly suppress pathogens and pests in many plant and animal systems. However, this "dilution effect" is not consistently detected, and when present can vary strikingly in magnitude. Here, we use forest inventory data from over 25,000 plots (>1.1 million sampled trees) to quantify the strength of the dilution effect on dozens of forest pests and clarify why some pests are particularly sensitive to biodiversity. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we show that pest prevalence is frequently lower in highly diverse forests, but there is considerable variability in the magnitude of this dilution effect among pests. The strength of dilution was not closely associated with host specialization or pest nativity. Instead, pest prevalence was lower in forests where co-occurring tree species were more distantly related to a pest's preferred hosts. Our analyses indicate that host evolutionary history and forest composition are key to understanding how species diversity may dilute the impacts of tree pests, with important implications for predicting how future biodiversity change may affect the spread and distribution of damaging forest pests.

SUBMITTER: Gougherty AV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10898760 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evolutionary history of host trees amplifies the dilution effect of biodiversity on forest pests.

Gougherty Andrew V AV Davies T Jonathan TJ

PLoS biology 20240227 2

Biodiversity appears to strongly suppress pathogens and pests in many plant and animal systems. However, this "dilution effect" is not consistently detected, and when present can vary strikingly in magnitude. Here, we use forest inventory data from over 25,000 plots (>1.1 million sampled trees) to quantify the strength of the dilution effect on dozens of forest pests and clarify why some pests are particularly sensitive to biodiversity. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we show that pest preva ...[more]

PMID: 38412281

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Project description:With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas - the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of 'seed weight' regulates migration, the abstract 'drought resistance' protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change.

Dataset Information

Evolutionary history of host trees amplifies the dilution effect of biodiversity on forest pests.

Publications

Evolutionary history of host trees amplifies the dilution effect of biodiversity on forest pests.

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