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Prediction of plasma ctDNA fraction and prognostic implications of liquid biopsy in advanced prostate cancer.


ABSTRACT: No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDNA% correlates with serum and radiographic metrics of disease burden and is highest in patients with liver metastases. ctDNA% strongly predicts overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response independent of therapeutic context and outperformed established prognostic clinical factors. Recognizing that ctDNA-based biomarker genotyping is limited by low ctDNA% in some patients, we leverage the relationship between clinical prognostic factors and ctDNA% to develop a clinically-interpretable machine-learning tool that predicts whether a patient has sufficient ctDNA% for informative ctDNA genotyping (available online: https://www.ctDNA.org ). Our results affirm ctDNA% as an actionable tool for patient risk stratification and provide a practical framework for optimized biomarker testing.

SUBMITTER: Fonseca NM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10902374 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of plasma ctDNA fraction and prognostic implications of liquid biopsy in advanced prostate cancer.

Fonseca Nicolette M NM   Maurice-Dror Corinne C   Herberts Cameron C   Tu Wilson W   Fan William W   Murtha Andrew J AJ   Kollmannsberger Catarina C   Kwan Edmond M EM   Parekh Karan K   Schönlau Elena E   Bernales Cecily Q CQ   Donnellan Gráinne G   Ng Sarah W S SWS   Sumiyoshi Takayuki T   Vergidis Joanna J   Noonan Krista K   Finch Daygen L DL   Zulfiqar Muhammad M   Miller Stacy S   Parimi Sunil S   Lavoie Jean-Michel JM   Hardy Edward E   Soleimani Maryam M   Nappi Lucia L   Eigl Bernhard J BJ   Kollmannsberger Christian C   Taavitsainen Sinja S   Nykter Matti M   Tolmeijer Sofie H SH   Boerrigter Emmy E   Mehra Niven N   van Erp Nielka P NP   De Laere Bram B   Lindberg Johan J   Grönberg Henrik H   Khalaf Daniel J DJ   Annala Matti M   Chi Kim N KN   Wyatt Alexander W AW  

Nature communications 20240228 1


No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDN  ...[more]

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