Dataset Information

A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

ABSTRACT: The study aimed to identify prognostic factors for patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and to develop a high-accuracy prediction tool. The analysis included 8254 cases of acute hematochezia patients who were admitted urgently based on the judgment of emergency physicians or gastroenterology consultants (from the CODE BLUE J-study). Patients were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio using a random number table. Assuming that factors present at the time of admission are involved in mortality within 30 days of admission, and adding management factors during hospitalization to the factors at the time of admission for mortality within 1 year, prognostic factors were established. Multivariate analysis was conducted, and scores were assigned to each factor using regression coefficients, summing these to measure the score. The newly created score (CACHEXIA score) became a tool capable of measuring both mortality within 30 days (ROC-AUC 0.93) and within 1 year (C-index, 0.88). The 1-year mortality rates for patients classified as low, medium, and high risk by the CACHEXIA score were 1.0%, 13.4%, and 54.3% respectively (all P < 0.001). After discharge, patients identified as high risk using our unique predictive score require ongoing observation.

SUBMITTER: Tominaga N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10912311 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

Tominaga Naoyuki N Sadashima Eiji E Aoki Tomonori T Fujita Minoru M Kobayashi Katsumasa K Yamauchi Atsushi A Yamada Atsuo A Omori Jun J Ikeya Takashi T Aoyama Taiki T Sato Yoshinori Y Kishino Takaaki T Ishii Naoki N Sawada Tsunaki T Murata Masaki M Takao Akinari A Mizukami Kazuhiro K Kinjo Ken K Fujimori Shunji S Uotani Takahiro T Sato Hiroki H Suzuki Sho S Narasaka Toshiaki T Hayasaka Junnosuke J Funabiki Tomohiro T Kinjo Yuzuru Y Mizuki Akira A Kiyotoki Shu S Mikami Tatsuya T Gushima Ryosuke R Fujii Hiroyuki H Fuyuno Yuta Y Hikichi Takuto T Toya Yosuke Y Narimatsu Kazuyuki K Manabe Noriaki N Nagaike Koji K Kinjo Tetsu T Sumida Yorinobu Y Funakoshi Sadahiro S Kobayashi Kiyonori K Matsuhashi Tamotsu T Komaki Yuga Y Miki Kuniko K Watanabe Kazuhiro K Kaise Mitsuru M Nagata Naoyoshi N

Scientific reports 20240304 1

The study aimed to identify prognostic factors for patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and to develop a high-accuracy prediction tool. The analysis included 8254 cases of acute hematochezia patients who were admitted urgently based on the judgment of emergency physicians or gastroenterology consultants (from the CODE BLUE J-study). Patients were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio using a random number table. Assuming that factors prese ...[more]

PMID: 38438534

Similar Datasets

Project description:IntroductionSevere hyperkalemia, with potassium (K+) levels ? 6.5 mEq/L, is a potentially life-threatening electrolyte imbalance. For prompt and effective treatment, it is important to know its risk factors, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality.MethodsAn observational cohort study was performed at 2 medical centers. A total of 923 consecutive Korean patients were analyzed. All were 19 years of age or older and were hospitalized with severe hyperkalemia between August 2007 and July 2010; the diagnosis of severe hyperkalemia was made either at the time of admission to the hospital or during the period of hospitalization. Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis were assessed, and clinical outcomes such as in-hospital mortality were reviewed, using the institutions' electronic medical record systems.ResultsChronic kidney disease (CKD) was the most common underlying medical condition, and the most common precipitating factor of hyperkalemia was metabolic acidosis. Emergent admission was indicated in 68.6% of patients, 36.7% had electrocardiogram findings typical of hyperkalemia, 24.5% had multi-organ failure (MOF) at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis, and 20.3% were diagnosed with severe hyperkalemia at the time of cardiac arrest. The in-hospital mortality rate was 30.7%; the rate was strongly correlated with the difference between serum K+ levels at admission and at their highest point, and with severe medical conditions such as malignancy, infection, and bleeding. Furthermore, a higher in-hospital mortality rate was significantly associated with the presence of cardiac arrest and/or MOF at the time of diagnosis, emergent admission, and intensive care unit treatment during hospitalization. More importantly, acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with normal baseline renal function was a strong predictor of mortality, compared with AKI superimposed on CKD.ConclusionsSevere hyperkalemia occurs in various medical conditions; the precipitating factors are similarly diverse. The mortality rate is especially high in patients with severe underlying disease, coexisting medical conditions, and those with normal baseline renal function.

Project description:ImportanceEpidemiological data on lower gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in the general population are sparse.ObjectiveTo describe the incidence, recurrence, mortality, and case fatality rates of major upper GIB and lower GIB in the general population of Finland between 1987 and 2016.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study used data from the 1987 to the 2012 cycles of the National FINRISK Study, a health examination survey that was conducted every 5 years in Finland. Survey participants were adults aged 25 to 74 years who were recruited from a population register by random sampling; those with a history of hospitalization for GIB were excluded. Participants were followed up from survey enrollment to onset of GIB that led to hospitalization, death from any cause, or study end (December 31, 2016). Follow-up was performed through linkage with national electronic health registers. Data were analyzed from February 1, 2019, to January 31, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence, recurrence, mortality, and case fatality rates for all, upper, lower, and unspecified GIB. Outcome measures were stratified by sex and age group.ResultsAmong the 39 054 participants included in the study, 494 (1.3%) experienced upper GIB (321 men [65.0%]; mean [SD] age, 52.8 [12.1] years) and 645 (1.7%) had lower GIB (371 men [57.5%]; mean [SD] age, 54.0 [11.7] years). The age-standardized incidence rate was 0.94 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 0.85-1.04) for upper GIB and 1.26 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 1.15-1.38) for lower GIB; the incidence was higher in men than in women. Between 1987 and 2016 the incidence rate of upper GIB remained mostly stable, ranging from 0.40 to 0.66 per 1000 person-years, whereas constant increases occurred in the incidence of lower GIB until the rate stabilized. The proportion of recurrent GIB events showed an increasing trend from 1987 to 2016. The upper GIB-specific mortality was higher (0.07 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 0.04-0.09) than the lower GIB-specific mortality (0.01 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 0.001-0.03). Case fatality was high for those with upper GIB (7.0%; 95% CI, 4.7-10.1) compared with those with lower GIB (0.4%; 95% CI, 0.1-1.3). Case fatality remained stable over the years but was higher in men (between 5% and 10%) than women (<2%) with GIB.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that the overall incidence rate of upper GIB was lower than the incidence of lower GIB, but the recurrence, mortality, and 28-day case fatality were higher in participants with upper GIB. These data can serve as a reference when putting into context the rates of drug-associated GIB and can inform efforts to improve GIB care and outcome and to prevent rebleeding or death for patients with major GIB.

Project description:BackgroundThe Oakland Score predicts risk of 30-day adverse events among hospitalized patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) possibly identifying patients who may be safe for discharge. The Oakland Score has not been studied among emergency department (ED) patients with LGIB. The Oakland Score composite outcome includes re-bleeding, defined as additional blood transfusion requirements and/or a further decrease in hematocrit (Hct) >/= 20% after 24 h in clinical stability; red blood cell transfusion; therapeutic intervention to control bleeding, including surgery, mesenteric embolization, or endoscopic hemostasis; in-hospital death, all cause; and re-admission with further LGIB within 28 days. Prediction variables include age, sex, previous LGIB admission, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and hemoglobin concentration, and scores range from 0 to 35 points, with higher scores indicating greater risk.MethodsRetrospective cohort study of adult (≥ 18 years old) patients with a primary ED diagnosis of LGIB across 21 EDs from March 1st, 2018, through March 1st, 2020. We excluded patients who were more likely to have upper gastrointestinal bleeding (esophago-gastroduodenoscopy without LGIB evaluation), patients who left against medical advice or prior to ED provider evaluation, ED patients without active health plan membership, and patients with incomplete Oakland Score variables. We assessed predictive accuracy by reporting the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) and sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios at multiple clinically relevant thresholds.ResultsWe identified 8,283 patients with LGIB, 52% were female, mean age was 68, 49% were non-White, and 27% had an adverse event. The AUROC for predicting an adverse event was 0.85 (95% CI 0.84-0.86). There were 1,358 patients with an Oakland Score of </=8; 4.9% had an adverse event, and sensitivity of the Oakland Score at this threshold was 97% (95% CI 96%-98%).ConclusionThe Oakland Score had high predictive accuracy among ED patients with LGIB. Prospective evaluation is needed to understand if the risk score could augment ED decision-making and improve outcomes and resource utilization.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department.MethodsA total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score.ResultsAmong 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794-0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.

Dataset Information

A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

Publications

A novel prediction tool for mortality in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring emergency hospitalization: a large multicenter study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets