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Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

ABSTRACT: According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan's central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.

SUBMITTER: Zhakhina G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10946271 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

Zhakhina Gulnur G Mussina Kamilla K Yerdessov Sauran S Gusmanov Arnur A Sakko Yesbolat Y Kim Valdemir V Syssoyev Dmitriy D Madikenova Meruyert M Assan Ainur A Kuanshaliyeva Zhanat Z Turebekov Duman D Yergaliyev Kuanysh K Bekishev Bolat B Gaipov Abduzhappar A

Renal failure 20240314 1

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patie ...[more]

PMID: 38482586

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Project description:BackgroundThe growing global health burden of kidney disease is substantial and the nephrology workforce is critical to managing it. There are concerns that the nephrology workforce appears to be shrinking in many countries. This study analyses trends in South Africa for the period 2002-2017, describes current training capacity and uses this as a basis for forecasting the nephrology workforce for 2030.MethodsData on registered nephrologists for the period 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the Health Professions Council of South Africa and the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa. Training capacity was assessed using data on government-funded posts for nephrologists and nephrology trainees, as well as training post numbers (the latter reflecting potential training capacity). Based on the trends, the gap in the supply of nephrologists was forecast for 2030 based on three targets: reducing the inequalities in provincial nephrologist densities, reducing the gap between public and private sector nephrologist densities, and international benchmarking using the Global Kidney Health Atlas and British Renal Society recommendations.ResultsThe number of nephrologists increased from 53 to 141 (paediatric nephrologists increased from 9 to 22) over the period 2002-2017. The density in 2017 was 2.5 nephrologists per million population (pmp). In 2002, the median age of nephrologists was 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 39-56 years) and in 2017 the median age was 48 years (IQR 41-56 years). The number of female nephrologists increased from 4 to 43 and the number of Black nephrologists increased from 3 to 24. There have been no nephrologists practising in the North West and Mpumalanga provinces and only one each in Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The current rate of production of nephrologists is eight per year. At this rate, and considering estimates of nephrologists exiting the workforce, there will be 2.6 nephrologists pmp in 2030. There are 17 government-funded nephrology trainee posts while the potential number based on the prescribed trainer-trainee ratio is 72. To increase the nephrologist density of all provinces to at least the level of KwaZulu-Natal (2.8 pmp), which has a density closest to the country average, a projected 72 additional nephrologists (six per year) would be needed by 2030. Benchmarking against the 25th centile (5.1 pmp) of upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) reported in the Global Kidney Health Atlas would require the training of an additional eight nephrologists per year.ConclusionsSouth Africa has insufficient nephrologists, especially in the public sector and in certain provinces. A substantial increase in the production of new nephrologists is required. This requires an increase in funded training posts and posts for qualified nephrologists in the public sector. This study has estimated the numbers and distribution of nephrologists needed to address provincial inequalities and achieve realistic nephrologist density targets.

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Dataset Information

Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

Publications

Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

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