Project description:While the spread of plant disease depends strongly on biological factors driving transmission, it also has a human dimension. Disease control depends on decisions made by individual growers, who are in turn influenced by a broad range of factors. Despite this, human behaviour has rarely been included in plant epidemic models. Considering Cassava Brown Streak Disease, we model how the perceived increase in profit due to disease management influences participation in clean seed systems (CSS). Our models are rooted in game theory, with growers making strategic decisions based on the expected profitability of different control strategies. We find that both the information used by growers to assess profitability and the perception of economic and epidemiological parameters influence long-term participation in the CSS. Over-estimation of infection risk leads to lower participation in the CSS, as growers perceive that paying for the CSS will be futile. Additionally, even though good disease management can be achieved through the implementation of CSS, and a scenario where all controllers use the CSS is achievable when growers base their decision on the average of their entire strategy, CBSD is rarely eliminated from the system. These results are robust to stochastic and spatial effects. Our work highlights the importance of including human behaviour in plant disease models, but also the significance of how that behaviour is included.
Project description:Choice can be driven both by rewards and stimuli that signal those rewards. Under certain conditions, pigeons will prefer options that lead to less probable reward when the reward is signaled. A recently quantified model, the Signal for Good News (SiGN) model, assumes that in the context of uncertainty, signals for a reduced delay to reward reinforce choice. The SiGN model provides an excellent fit to previous results from pigeons and the current studies are the first to test a priori quantitative predictions. Pigeons chose between a suboptimal alternative that led to signaled 20% food and an optimal alternative that led to 50% food. The duration of the choice period was manipulated across conditions in two experiments. Pigeons strongly preferred the suboptimal alternative at the shorter durations and strongly preferred the optimal alternative at the longer durations. The results from both experiments fit well with predictions from the SiGN model and show that altering the duration of the choice period has a dramatic effect in that it changes which of the two options pigeons prefer. More generally, these results suggest that the relative value of options is not fixed, but instead depends on the temporal context.
Project description:Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior.
Project description:We present survey data from 436 grapevine growers across Switzerland and their production, pest, and risk management decisions. The online survey was conducted in spring 2022 in the three main official languages in Switzerland (German, French, Italian). The survey was used to obtain information on variety choice and farm management strategies, as well as farmer, farm, and spatial environmental characteristics. Moreover, we collected information around fungus-resistant grapevine varieties such as knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of these varieties. We also elicited the current cultivation and growers' intentions on future acreage under these varieties. In addition, data were collected on growers' pest management strategies against weeds, insects, and fungi. Characteristics of the farm manager collected include education, farming goals, wine-related expertise, and information sources used. Information about the farm consist of marketing channels, labels, direct payment schemes, production systems and pesticide application machinery, among other details. Moreover, risk and time preferences, self-efficacy and locus of control were collected via self-assessed scales. The survey data were matched with spatial climatic data on municipality level (e.g. on temperature, precipitation, the number of yearly hail days, average sunshine duration and relative humidity) as well as pest pressure (e.g. infection risk by Oidium and Peronospora viticola) at weather station level.
Project description:Study Design Broad narrative review. Objectives Intramedullary spinal cord tumors (IMSCT) are uncommon lesions that can affect any age group or sex. However, numerous IMSCT exist and the clinical course of each tumor varies. The following article addresses the various management options and outcomes in patients with IMSCT. Methods An extensive review of the peer-reviewed literature was performed, addressing management options and clinical outcomes of patients with IMSCT. Results Early diagnosis and intervention are essential to obtain optimal functional outcome. Each IMSCT have specific imaging characteristics, which help in the clinical decision-making and prognostication. A comprehension of the tumor pathology and the clinical course associated with each tumor can allow for the proper surgical and nonsurgical management of these tumors, and reduce any associated morbidity and mortality. Recent advances in the operative management of such lesions have increased the success rate of tumor removal while minimizing iatrogenic-related trauma to the patient and, in tandem, improving patient outcomes. Conclusions Awareness and understanding of IMSCT is imperative to design proper management and obtain optimal patient outcomes. Meticulous operative technique and the use of surgical adjuncts are essential to accomplish proper tumor removal, diminish the risk of recurrence, and preserve neurologic function. Operative management of IMSCT should be individualized and based on tumor type, location, and dimensional extensions. To assist with preoperative and intraoperative decision-making, a general algorithm is provided.
Project description:Animals will favor a risky option when a stimulus signaling reward bridges the choice and the outcome. The present experiments investigated signal-induced risky choices and reward-outcome expectations in rhesus and capuchin monkeys. Risky choice was assessed by preference for a large-probabilistic reward over a modest-certain reward. Outcome expectancy was assessed by providing a truncation-response to shorten the delay period. In Experiment 1 both species generally favored the risky option compared to a safe option when the outcomes were signaled and generally shortened the delays except when a signaled-loss stimulus was presented. The use of the delay-truncation response suggested that the monkeys were sensitive to the information conveyed by the stimulus. Experiments 2 and 3 were designed to investigate whether the delay-truncation response used by capuchin monkeys was strategically used reflecting explicit decision-making versus a conditioned response to reward stimuli. A perceptual judgment task was included and the selective use of the delay-truncation response on unsignaled correct trials may suggest the involvement of metacognitive processes. The capuchin monkeys generally truncated the delays except under conditions where reward would not be expected (risky-loss or incorrect-judgment). When the outcomes were unsignaled during the delay some capuchin monkeys were less likely to truncate the delay following an incorrect task response. Overall, the monkeys: (1) made more risky choices when the outcomes were signaled - consistent with gambling-like behavior. (2) selectively truncated the unsignaled delays when rewards could be anticipated (even when metacognitive-like awareness guided anticipation) - suggesting that delay truncation responses reflect explicit outcome expectancy.
Project description:Deciding which options to engage, and which to forego, requires developing accurate beliefs about the overall distribution of prospects. Here we adapt a classic prey selection task from foraging theory to examine how individuals keep track of an environment's reward rate and adjust choices in response to its fluctuations. Preference shifts were most pronounced when the environment improved compared to when it deteriorated. This is best explained by a trial-by-trial learning model in which participants estimate the reward rate with upward vs. downward changes controlled by separate learning rates. A failure to adjust expectations sufficiently when an environment becomes worse leads to suboptimal choices: options that are valuable given the environmental conditions are rejected in the false expectation that better options will materialize. These findings offer a previously unappreciated parallel in the serial choice setting of observations of asymmetric updating and resulting biased (often overoptimistic) estimates in other domains.
Project description:Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide, with a potentially serious prognosis. At present, management of IgAN is primarily based on therapeutic lifestyle changes, and excellent blood pressure control and maximized supportive treatment with the combination of inhibition of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system with either inhibitors of angiotensin-converting enzyme or angiotensin II receptor blockers and inhibitors of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2, and possibly in the future also with endothelin antagonists. Supportive care currently represents the cornerstone of treatment of IgAN. Targeted-release formulation of budesonide should replace systemic corticosteroids in patients with higher proteinuria and active histological lesions. New treatment options are aimed at immunopathogenesis of IgAN including depletion or modulation of Galactose-deficient-Immunoglobulin A1-producing B cells, plasma cells, and the alternate and/or lectin pathway of complement. The exact place of monoclonal antibodies and complement inhibitors will need to be determined. This article reviews potential supportive therapies currently available for patients with IgAN.
Project description:Realistic, everyday rewards contain multiple components. An apple has taste and size. However, we choose in single dimensions, simply preferring some apples to others. How can such single-dimensional preference relationships refer to multicomponent choice options? Here, we measured how stochastic choices revealed preferences for 2-component milkshakes. The preferences were intuitively graphed as indifference curves that represented the orderly integration of the 2 components as trade-off: parts of 1 component were given up for obtaining 1 additional unit of the other component without a change in preference. The well-ordered, nonoverlapping curves satisfied leave-one-out tests, followed predictions by machine learning decoders and correlated with single-dimensional Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) auction-like bids for the 2-component rewards. This accuracy suggests a decision process that integrates multiple reward components into single-dimensional estimates in a systematic fashion. In interspecies comparisons, human performance matched that of highly experienced laboratory monkeys, as measured by accuracy of the critical trade-off between bundle components. These data describe the nature of choices of multicomponent choice options and attest to the validity of the rigorous economic concepts and their convenient graphic schemes for explaining choices of human and nonhuman primates. The results encourage formal behavioral and neural investigations of normal, irrational, and pathological economic choices. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).