Estimating the carbon emissions from a resource-limited surgical suite in Papua New Guinea: The climate change potential
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Umo I
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10953991 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Climate change may disrupt species-species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limit data collection. In this study, we predict and evaluate the plant-insect interactions with limited data sets. We examined plant-insect interaction using observational data for development of the crop plant rice (Oryza sativa) and an effective accumulated temperature (EAT) model of two mirid bugs (Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium). We combined 11 years of records monitoring rice phenology and the predicted phenology of mirid bugs using spatially-explicit EAT models based on both spatially and temporally high resolutions temperature data sets, then evaluated their accuracy using actual pest damage records. Our results showed that the predicted interactions between rice and mirid bugs explained rice damage to some degree. Our approach may apply predicting changes to plant-insect interactions under climate change. As such, combining plant monitoring records and theoretical predictions of insect phenology may be effective for predicting species-species interactions when available data are limited.
| S-EPMC9259679 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In emergency departments (EDs), demand for care often exceeds the available resources. Triage addresses this problem by sorting patients into categories of urgency. The Interagency Integrated Triage Tool (IITT) is a novel triage system designed for resource-limited emergency care (EC) settings. The system was piloted by two EDs in Papua New Guinea as part of an EC capacity development program. Implementation involved a five-hour teaching program for all ED staff, complemented by training resources including flowcharts and reference guides. Clinical redesign helped optimise flow and infrastructure, and development of simple electronic registries enabled data collection. Local champions were identified, and experienced EC clinicians from Australia acted as mentors during system roll-out. Evaluation data suggests the IITT, and the associated change management process, have high levels of acceptance amongst staff. Subject to validation, the IITT may be relevant to other resource-limited EC settings.
| S-EPMC8315437 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPapua New Guinea (PNG) is a diverse country with high mortality and evidence of increased prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but there is no reliable cause of death (COD) data because civil registration is insufficient and routine health data comprise only a small proportion of deaths. This study aims to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for five broad groups of causes (endemic infections, emerging infections, endemic NCDs, emerging NCDs and injuries), by sex for each of PNG's provinces.MethodsCSMFs are calculated as the average of estimates obtained from: (1) Empirical cause method: Utilising available Verbal Autopsy (VA) data and Discharge Health Information System (DHIS) data, and applying statistical models of community versus facility CODs; and (2) Expected cause patterns method: Utilising existing estimates of mortality levels in each province and statistical models of the relationship between all-cause and cause-specific mortality using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.ResultsAn estimated 41% of male and 49% of female deaths in PNG are due to infectious, maternal (female only), neonatal and nutritional causes. Furthermore, 45% of male and 42% of female deaths arise from NCDs. Infectious diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions account for more than half the deaths in a number of provinces, including lower socioeconomic status provinces of Gulf and Sandaun, while provinces with higher CSMFs from emerging NCDs (e.g. ischemic heart disease, stroke) tend to be those where socioeconomic status is comparatively high (e.g. National Capital District, Western Highlands Province, Manus Province, New Ireland Province and East New Britain Province). Provinces with the highest estimated proportion of deaths from emerging infectious diseases are readily accessible by road and have the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), while provinces with the highest CSMFs from endemic infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes are geographically isolated, have high malaria and high all-cause mortality.ConclusionsInfectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes continue to be an important COD in PNG, and are likely to be higher than what is estimated by the GBD. Nonetheless, there is evidence of the emergence of NCDs in provinces with higher socioeconomic status. The introduction of routine VA for non-facility deaths should improve COD data quality to support health policy and planning to control both infectious and NCDs.
| S-EPMC6805633 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Interagency Integrated Triage Tool (IITT) is a three-tier triage system designed for resource-limited emergency care (EC) settings. This study sought to assess the validity and reliability of a pilot version of the tool in an urban emergency department (ED) in Papua New Guinea.MethodsA pragmatic observational study was conducted at Gerehu General Hospital in Port Moresby, commencing eight weeks after IITT implementation. All ED patients presenting within the subsequent two-month period were included. Triage assessments were performed by a variety of ED clinicians, including community health workers, nurses and doctors. The primary outcome was sensitivity for the detection of time-critical illness, defined by ten pre-specified diagnoses. The association between triage category and ED outcomes was examined using Cramer's V correlation coefficient. Reliability was assessed by inter-rater agreement between a local and an experienced, external triage officer.FindingsAmong 4512 presentations during the study period, 58 (1.3%) were classified as category one (emergency), 967 (21.6%) as category two (priority) and 3478 (77.1%) as category three (non-urgent). The tool's sensitivity for detecting the pre-specified set of time-sensitive conditions was 70.8% (95%CI 58.2-81.4%), with negative predictive values of 97.3% (95%CI 96.7 - 97.8%) for admission/transfer and 99.9% (95%CI 99.7 - 100.0%) for death. The admission/transfer rate was 44.8% (26/58) among emergency patients, 22.9% (223/976) among priority patients and 2.7% (94/3478) among non-urgent patients (Cramer's V=0.351, p=0.00). Four of 58 (6.9%) emergency patients, 19/976 (2.0%) priority patients and 3/3478 (0.1%) non-urgent patients died in the ED (Cramer's V=0.14, p=0.00). The under-triage rate was 2.7% (94/3477) and the over-triage rate 48.2% (28/58), both within pre-specified limits of acceptability. On average, it took staff 3 minutes 34 seconds (SD 1:06) to determine and document a triage category. Among 70 observed assessments, weighted κ was 0.84 (excellent agreement).InterpretationThe pilot version of the IITT demonstrated acceptable performance characteristics, and validation in other EC settings is warranted.FundingThis project was funded through a Friendship Grant from the Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and an International Development Fund Grant from the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine Foundation.
| S-EPMC8358156 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Existing at the interface of land and sea, in regions of low topographic relief, mangroves are likely to be some of the first ecosystems that undergo spatial modification due to sea-level rise. The mangrove ecosystems of the Gulf of Papua New Guinea are some of the largest and most pristine in the Asia-Pacific region; they have not been subject to clearance for crustacean farming nor suffered from land reclamation projects. This article establishes through analysis of a time series of aerial photography and satellite imagery from the period 1973-2007, that there have been substantial changes in the distribution of mangroves in this region. These changes include the seaward progradation of the Purari Delta and the regression of the Kikori Delta by an average of 43 m year(-1) at its most seaward point. While these findings are likely to be continuations of long-term trends, it is probable that they can be explained by a variety of interacting factors including climate change, sea-level rise, subsistence in the northern Gulf of Papua and changes in sediment dynamics.
| S-EPMC3357694 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Live coral is harvested throughout the Indo-West Pacific to make lime, used in the consumption of the world's fourth-most consumed drug, betel nut. Coral harvesting is an environmental concern; however, because lime-making is one of the few sources of income in some areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG), the practice is unlikely to stop. To better manage coral harvest, we used standard fishery-yield methods to generate sustainable-harvest guidelines for corymbose Acropora species found on the reef flat and crest at Lababia, PNG. We constructed a yield curve (weight-specific net annual-dry-weight production) by: 1) describing the allometric relationship between colony size and dry weight, and using that relationship to estimate the dry weight of Acropora colonies in situ; 2) estimating annual growth of Acropora colonies by estimating in situ, and describing the relationship between, colony dry weight at the beginning and end of one year; and 3) conducting belt-transect surveys to describe weight-frequencies and ultimately to predict annual weight change per square meter for each weight class. Reef habitat covers a total 2,467,550 m2 at Lababia and produces an estimated 248,397 kg/y (dry weight) of corymbose Acropora, of which 203,897 kg is produced on the reef flat/crest. We conservatively estimate that 30,706.6 kg of whole, dry, corymbose, Acropora can be sustainably harvested from the reef flat/crest habitat each year provided each culled colony weighs at least 1805 g when dry (or is at least 46 cm along its major axis). Artisanal lime-makers convert 24.8% of whole-colony weight into marketable lime, thus we estimate 7615.2 g of lime can be sustainably produced annually from corymbose Acropora. This value incorporates several safety margins, and should lead to proper management of live coral harvest. Importantly, the guideline recognizes village rights to exploit its marine resources, is consistent with village needs for income, and balances an equally strong village desire to conserve its marine resources for future generations.
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Project description:ObjectivesThis study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea.MethodsMalaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed.ResultsNationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes.ConclusionsIncreasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.
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| S-EPMC514653 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
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Project description:Microbial communities of boreal peatlands under climate change conditions: Does community structure indicate the dynamics of ecosystem function?
| PRJEB25233 | ENA