An epidemiological modeling framework to inform institutional-level response to infectious disease outbreaks: a Covid-19 case study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ma Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10973339 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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An epidemiological modeling framework to inform institutional-level response to infectious disease outbreaks: a Covid-19 case study.
Scientific reports 20240327 1
Institutions have an enhanced ability to implement tailored mitigation measures during infectious disease outbreaks. However, macro-level predictive models are inefficient for guiding institutional decision-making due to uncertainty in local-level model input parameters. We present an institutional-level modeling toolkit used to inform prediction, resource procurement and allocation, and policy implementation at Clemson University throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Through incorporating real-time ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionDeterministic compartmental models of infectious diseases like measles typically reflect biological heterogeneities in the risk of infection and severity to characterize transmission dynamics. Given the known association of socioeconomic status and increased vulnerability to infection and mortality, it is also critical that such models further incorporate social heterogeneities.MethodsHere, we aimed to explore the influence of integrating income-associated differences in parameters of traditional dynamic transmission models. We developed a measles SIR model, in which the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered classes were stratified by income quintile, with income-specific transmission rates, disease-induced mortality rates, and vaccination coverage levels. We further provided a stylized illustration with secondary data from Ethiopia, where we examined various scenarios demonstrating differences in transmission patterns by income and in distributional vaccination coverage, and quantified impacts on disparities in measles mortality.ResultsThe income-stratified SIR model exhibited similar dynamics to that of the traditional SIR model, with amplified outbreak peaks and measles mortality among the poorest income group. All vaccination coverage strategies were found to substantially curb the overall number of measles deaths, yet most considerably for the poorest, with select strategies yielding clear reductions in measles mortality disparities.DiscussionThe incorporation of income-specific differences can reveal distinct outbreak patterns across income groups and important differences in the subsequent effects of preventative interventions like vaccination. Our case study highlights the need to extend traditional modeling frameworks (e.g. SIR models) to be stratified by socioeconomic factors like income and to consider ensuing income-associated differences in disease-related morbidity and mortality. In so doing, we build on existing tools and characterize ongoing challenges in achieving health equity.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.
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Project description:BackgroundOutbreaks of infectious arthritis in young lambs associated with Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies dysgalactiae (SDSD) lead to reduced animal welfare, increased use of antibiotics and economic losses for sheep farmers. Understanding risk factors is essential when developing strategies to prevent such outbreaks. This questionnaire-based cross-sectional study classified sheep flocks of respondents as cases or controls. Flock-level risk factors for outbreaks of infectious arthritis were assessed using a multivariable logistic regression model.ResultsEighty-four of 1498 respondents (5.6%) experienced an outbreak of infectious arthritis in their flock in 2018, the year of study. Factors associated with a higher risk of outbreak were larger flock size (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.4, per 100 lambs), plastic mesh flooring in the lambing pen (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.7-5.3) and a lambing percentage greater than 200 (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5). Flocks where farmers observed infections around the ear tags of lambs also had an increased risk of outbreak (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.6-4.3).ConclusionsThe risk factors identified in this study are characteristic of modern and intensively managed sheep farms in Norway. A distinguishing feature of Norwegian sheep farming is winter housing and indoor lambing. One might expect that this in itself is a risk factor because of high stocking densities during lambing. However, outbreaks of infectious arthritis in young lambs are reported by the industry to be a more recent phenomenon. The current study indicates that intensification of indoor management systems with larger flocks and higher production per ewe may predispose to outbreaks. The results provide a basis for further studies on transmission dynamics of SDSD in sheep flocks with indoor lambing.
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