Dataset Information

The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Ewing sarcoma remains the second most prevalent primary aggressive bone tumor in teens and young adults. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a web-based nomogram to predict the overall survival for Ewing sarcoma in children.

Methods

A total of 698 patients, with 640 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (the training set) and 58 cases (the external validation set), were included in this study. Cox analyses were carried out to determine the independent prognostic indicators, which were further included to establish a web-based nomogram. The predictive abilities were tested through the concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results

As suggested by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, age, primary site, tumor size, metastasis stage (M stage), and chemotherapy were included as the independent predictive variables. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, calibration curves, concordance index, and decision curve analysis from training and validation groups suggested the model has great clinical applications.

Conclusion

We developed a convenient and precise web-based nomogram to evaluate overall survival for Ewing sarcoma in children. The application of this nomogram would assist physicians and patients in making decisions.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10984150 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children.

Chen Yi Y Liu Zirui Z Wang Yaobin Y Zhan Hongwei H Liu Jinmin J Niu Yongkang Y Yang Ao A Teng Fei F Li Jinfeng J Geng Bin B Xia Yayi Y

Journal of children's orthopaedics 20240214 2

<h4>Background</h4>Ewing sarcoma remains the second most prevalent primary aggressive bone tumor in teens and young adults. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a web-based nomogram to predict the overall survival for Ewing sarcoma in children.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 698 patients, with 640 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (the training set) and 58 cases (the external validation set), were included in this study. Cox analyses were carried out to determine ...[more]

PMID: 38567041

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Project description:BackgroundPrimary retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) comprises over 70 histologic subtypes, yet there are limited studies that have developed prognostic nomograms for RPS patients to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The objective of this study was to construct prognostic nomograms for predicting OS and CSS in RPS patients.MethodsWe identified a total of 1166 RPS patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and an additional 261 cases were collected from a tertiary cancer center. The study incorporated various clinicopathological and epidemiologic features as variables, and prediction windows for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were set at 3, 5, and 7 years. Multivariable Cox models were utilized to develop the nomograms, and variable selection was performed using a backward procedure based on the Akaike Information Criterion. To evaluate the performance of the nomograms in terms of calibration and discrimination, we used calibration plots, coherence index, and area under the curve.FindingsThe study included 818 patients in the development cohort, 348 patients in the internal validation cohort, and 261 patients in the external validation cohort. The backward procedure selected the following variables: age, French Federation of Cancer Centers Sarcoma Group (FNCLCC) grade, pre-/postoperative chemotherapy, tumor size, primary site surgery, and tumor multifocality. The validation results demonstrated that the nomograms had good calibration and discrimination, with C-indices of 0.76 for OS and 0.81 for CSS. Calibration plots also showed good consistency between the predicted and actual survival rates. Furthermore, the areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves for the 3-, 5-, and 7-year OS (0.84, 0.82, and 0.78, respectively) and CSS (0.88, 0.88, and 0.85, respectively) confirmed the accuracy of the nomograms.InterpretationOur study developed accurate nomograms to predict OS and CSS in patients with RPS. These nomograms have important clinical implications and can assist healthcare providers in making informed decisions regarding patient care and treatment options. They may also aid in patient counseling and stratification in clinical trials.

Project description:AimLung metastases are a negative prognostic factor in Ewing sarcoma, however, the incidence and significance of sub-centimetre pulmonary nodules at diagnosis is unclear. The aims of this study were to (1): determine the incidence of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) in patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma (2); establish the impact of IPNs on overall and metastasis-free survival and (3) identify patient, oncological and radiological factors that correlate with poorer prognosis in patients that present with IPNs on their staging chest CT.Materials & methodsBetween 2008 and 2016, 173 patients with a first presentation of Ewing sarcoma of bone were retrospectively identified from an institutional database. Staging and follow-up chest CTs for all patients with IPN were reviewed by a senior radiologist. Clinical and radiologic course were examined to determine overall- and metastasis-free survival for IPN patients and to identify demographic, oncological or nodule-specific features that predict which IPN represent true lung metastases.ResultsFollowing radiologic re-review, IPN were found in 8.7% of patients. Overall survival for IPN patients was comparable to those with a normal staging chest CT (2-year overall survival of 73.3% [95% CI 43.6-89] and 89.4% [95% CI 81.6-94], respectively; p = 0.34) and was significantly better than for patients with clear metastases (46.0% [95% CI 31.9-59]; p < 0.0001). Similarly, there was no difference in metastasis-free survival between 'No Metastases' and 'IPN' patients (p = 0.16). Lung metastases developed in 40% of IPN patients at a median 9.6 months. Reduction of nodule size on neoadjuvant chemotherapy was associated with worse overall survival in IPN patients (p = 0.0084).ConclusionIPN are not uncommon in patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma. In this study, we were unable to detect a difference in overall- or metastasis-free survival between patients with IPN at diagnosis and patients with normal staging chest CTs.

Dataset Information

The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children.

Similar Datasets

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