Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.
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SUBMITTER: Sun Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11011220 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.
Sun Yuming Y Keskinocak Pinar P Steimle Lauren N LN Kovacs Stephanie D SD Wassilak Steven G SG
Vaccine: X 20240316
<h4>Background</h4>Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus in oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) can revert to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) in under-vaccinated communities, regain neurovirulence and transmissibility, and cause paralysis outbreaks. Since the cessation of type 2-containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016, there have been cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks in ...[more]
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| S-EPMC2630745 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) can emerge in areas with low poliovirus immunity and cause outbreaks* of paralytic polio (1-5). Among the three types of wild poliovirus, type 2 was declared eradicated in 2015 (1,2). The use of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV; types 1, 2, and 3 Sabin strains) ceased in April 2016 via a 1-month-long, global synchronized switch to bivalent OPV (bOPV; types 1 and 3 Sabin strains) in immunization activities (1-4). Monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2; type 2 Sabin strain) is available for cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreak response immunization (1-5). The number and geographic breadth of post-switch cVDPV2 outbreaks have exceeded forecasts that trended toward zero outbreaks 4 years after the switch and assumed rapid and effective control of any that occurred (4). New cVDPV2 outbreaks have been seeded by mOPV2 use, by both suboptimal mOPV2 coverage within response zones and recently mOPV2-vaccinated children or contacts traveling outside of response zones, where children born after the global switch are fully susceptible to poliovirus type 2 transmission (2-4). In addition, new emergences can develop by inadvertent exposure to Sabin OPV2-containing vaccine (i.e., residual response mOPV2 or tOPV) (4). This report updates the January 2018-June 2019 report with information on global cVDPV outbreaks during July 2019-February 2020 (as of March 25, 2020)† (2). Among 33 cVDPV outbreaks reported during July 2019-February 2020, 31 (94%) were cVDPV2; 18 (58%) of these followed new emergences. In mid-2020, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) plans to introduce a genetically stabilized, novel OPV type 2 (nOPV2) that has a lower risk for generating VDPV2 than does Sabin mOPV2; if nOPV2 is successful in limiting new VDPV2 emergences, GPEI foresees the replacement of Sabin mOPV2 with nOPV2 for cVDPV2 outbreak responses during 2021 (2,4,6).
| S-EPMC7188410 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBetween 2016 and 2023, 3248 cases of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis (cVDPV2) were reported globally and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) with monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) targeted an estimated 356 and 525 million children, respectively. This analysis estimates the community-level impact of nOPV2 relative to mOPV2 SIAs.MethodsWe fitted interrupted time-series regressions to surveillance data between January 2016 and November 2023 to estimate the impact of nOPV2 and mOPV2 SIAs on cVDPV2 poliomyelitis incidence and prevalence in environmental surveillance across 37 countries, directly comparing the impact of SIAs in 13 countries where both vaccines were used.ResultsWe did not find any statistically significant differences between nOPV2 and mOPV2 SIA impact except for in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where nOPV2 SIAs had lower impact (adjusted relative risk [aRR] for cVDPV2 poliomyelitis incidence per nOPV2 SIA, 0.505; 95% confidence interval [CI], .409-.623) compared to mOPV2 (aRR, 0.193; 95% CI, .137-.272); P value for difference in RRs = 3e-6.ConclusionsWe find variation in OPV2 SIA impacts globally, with greater certainty about Nigeria and DRC, where large outbreaks provided an opportunity to assess impact at scale. In most countries, we find no significant difference between nOPV2 and mOPV2 SIA impact. We are unable to identify the reason for the significant difference in DRC, which could include differential SIA coverage, timing, vaccine effectiveness, or outbreak dynamics.
| S-EPMC11841638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Concurrent outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus serotypes 1 and 2 (cVDPV1, cVDPV2) were confirmed in the Republic of the Philippines in September 2019 and were subsequently confirmed in Malaysia by early 2020. There is continuous population subgroup movement in specific geographies between the two countries. Outbreak response efforts focused on sequential supplemental immunization activities with monovalent Sabin strain oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (mOPV2) and bivalent oral poliovirus vaccines (bOPV, containing Sabin strain types 1 and 3) as well as activities to enhance poliovirus surveillance sensitivity to detect virus circulation. A total of six cVDPV1 cases, 13 cVDPV2 cases, and one immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 case were detected, and there were 35 cVDPV1 and 31 cVDPV2 isolates from environmental surveillance sewage collection sites. No further cVDPV1 or cVDPV2 have been detected in either country since March 2020. Response efforts in both countries encountered challenges, particularly those caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Important lessons were identified and could be useful for other countries that experience outbreaks of concurrent cVDPV serotypes.
| S-EPMC10546869 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 calls for the gradual withdrawal of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization. We aimed to quantify the transmission potential of Sabin strains from OPV when it is reintroduced, accidentally or deliberately, in a community vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine alone.MethodsWe built an individual-based stochastic epidemiological model that allows independent spread of 3 Sabin serotypes and differential transmission rates within versus between households. Model parameters were estimated by fitting to data from a prospective cohort in Mexico. We calculated the effective reproductive number for the Mexico cohort and simulated scenarios of Sabin strain resurgence under postcessation conditions, projecting the risk of prolonged circulation, which could lead to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV).ResultsThe estimated effective reproductive number for naturally infected individuals was about 1 for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3 (OPV2 and OPV3) in a postcessation setting. Most transmission events occurred between households. We estimated the probability of circulation for >9 months to be (1) <<1% for all 3 serotypes when 90% of children <5 years of age were vaccinated in a hypothetical outbreak control campaign; (2) 45% and 24% for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3, respectively, when vaccine coverage dropped to 10%; (3) 37% and 8% for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3, respectively, when a single active shedder appeared in a community.ConclusionsCritical factors determining the risk of cVDPV emergence are the scale at which OPV is reintroduced and the between-household transmission rate for poliovirus, with intermediate values posing the greatest risk.
| S-EPMC6206116 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sabin strains used in the manufacture of oral polio vaccine (OPV) replicate in the human organism and can give rise to vaccine-derived polioviruses. The increased neurovirulence of vaccine derivatives has been known since the beginning of OPV use, but their ability to establish circulation in communities has been recognized only recently during the latest stages of the polio eradication campaign. This important observation called for studies of their emergence and evolution as well as extensive surveillance to determine the scope of this phenomenon. Here, we present the results of a study of vaccine-derived isolates from an immunocompromised poliomyelitis patient, the contacts, and the local sewage. All isolates were identified as closely related and slightly evolved vaccine derivatives with a recombinant type 2/type 1 genome. The strains also shared several amino acid substitutions including a mutation in the VP1 protein that was previously shown to be associated with the loss of attenuation. Another mutation in the VP3 protein resulted in altered immunological properties of the isolates, possibly facilitating virus spread in immunized populations. The patterns and rates of the accumulation of synonymous mutations in isolates collected from the patient over the extended period of excretion suggest either a substantially nonuniform rate of mutagenesis throughout the genome, or, more likely, the strains may have been intratypic recombinants between coevolving derivatives with different degrees of divergence from the vaccine parent. This study provides insight into the early stages of the establishment of circulation by runaway vaccine strains.
| S-EPMC538583 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We determined nucleotide sequences of the VP1 and 2AB genes and portions of the 2C and 3D genes of two evolving poliovirus lineages: circulating wild viruses of T geotype and Sabin vaccine-derived isolates from an immunodeficient patient. Different regions of the viral RNA were found to evolve nonsynchronously, and the rate of evolution of the 2AB region in the vaccine-derived population was not constant throughout its history. Synonymous replacements occurred not completely randomly, suggesting the need for conservation of certain rare codons (possibly to control translation elongation) and the existence of unidentified constraints in the viral RNA structure. Nevertheless the major contribution to the evolution of the two lineages came from linear accumulation of synonymous substitutions. Therefore, in agreement with current theories of viral evolution, we suggest that the majority of the mutations in both lineages were fixed as a result of successive sampling, from the heterogeneous populations, of random portions containing predominantly neutral and possibly adverse mutations. As a result of such a mode of evolution, the virus fitness may be maintained at a more or less constant level or may decrease unless more-fit variants are stochastically generated. The proposed unifying model of natural poliovirus evolution has important implications for the epidemiology of poliomyelitis.
| S-EPMC112258 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For more than 20 years, the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region (WPR) has been polio-free. However, two current challenges are still polio-related. First, around half of poliomyelitis elderly survivors suffer late poliomyelitis sequelae with a substantial impact on daily activities and quality of life, experiencing varying degrees of residual weakness as they age. The post-polio syndrome as well as accelerated aging may be involved. Second, after the worldwide Sabin oral poliovirus (OPV) vaccination, the recent reappearance of strains of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) circulating in the environment is worrisome and able to persistent person-to-person transmission. Such VDPV strains exhibit atypical genetic characteristics and reversed neurovirulence that can cause paralysis similarly to wild poliovirus, posing a significant obstacle to the elimination of polio. Immunization is essential for preventing paralysis in those who are exposed to the poliovirus. Stress the necessity of maintaining high vaccination rates because declining immunity increases the likelihood of reemergence. If mankind wants to eradicate polio in the near future, measures to raise immunization rates and living conditions in poorer nations are needed, along with strict observation. New oral polio vaccine candidates offer a promissory tool for this goal.
| S-EPMC9886775 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security-compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation-based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation.
| S-EPMC7814397 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe Sabin-strain inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) may be a tool for polio outbreak response in certain situations.ObjectiveTo investigate the response to a type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) outbreak.Design, setting, and participantsThis case series was conducted in China after a VDPV2 was detected in stool specimens from a child with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in Sichuan Province in 2019, 3 years after the global withdrawal of live, attenuated type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Investigation followed National Health Commission and World Health Organization guidance and included searching hospitals for unreported AFP cases; testing stool specimens from the child, his contacts, and local children; enhanced environmental surveillance for VDPV2s in wastewater; and measuring vaccination coverage. Sabin-strain IPV campaigns were conducted in a wide geographic area.Main outcomes and measuresAny VDPV2 detection after completion of the supplementary immunization activities.ResultsA 28-nucleotide-change VDPV2 was isolated from a young boy. Three VDPV2s were detected in healthy children; 2 were contacts of the original child, and none had paralysis. A search of 31 million hospital records found 10 unreported AFP cases; none were polio. No type 2 polioviruses were found in wastewater. Prior to the event, polio vaccine coverage was 65% among children younger than 5 years. Sabin-strain IPV campaigns reached more than 97% of targeted children, administering 1.4 million doses. No transmission source was identified. More than 1 year of enhanced poliovirus environmental and AFP surveillance detected no additional VDPVs.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that the circulating VPDV2 outbreak in 2019 was associated with low vaccine coverage. An investigation discovered 3 infected but otherwise healthy children and no evidence of the virus in wastewater. Following Sabin-strain IPV-only campaigns expanding from county to prefecture, the poliovirus was not detected, and the outbreak response was considered by an expert panel and the World Health Organization to have been successful. This success suggests that the Sabin-strain IPV may be a useful tool for responding to circulating VDPV2 outbreaks when high-quality supplementary immunization activities can be conducted and carefully monitored in settings with good sanitation.
| S-EPMC9856606 | biostudies-literature