Project description:Background Risk assessment is the cornerstone for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease ( ASCVD ) treatment decisions. The Pooled Cohort Equations ( PCE ) have not been validated in disaggregated Asian or Hispanic populations, who have heterogeneous cardiovascular risk and outcomes. Methods and Results We used electronic health record data from adults aged 40 to 79 years from a community-based, outpatient healthcare system in northern California between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2015, without ASCVD and not on statins. We examined the calibration and discrimination of the PCE and recalibrated the equations for disaggregated race/ethnic subgroups. The cohort included 231 622 adults with a mean age of 53.1 (SD 9.7) years and 54.3% women. There were 56 130 Asian (Chinese, Asian Indian, Filipino, Japanese, Vietnamese, and other Asian) and 19 760 Hispanic (Mexican, Puerto Rican, and other Hispanic) patients. There were 2703 events (332 and 189 in Asian and Hispanic patients, respectively) during an average of 3.9 (SD 1.5) years of follow-up. The PCE overestimated risk for NHW s, African Americans, Asians, and Hispanics by 20% to 60%. The extent of overestimation of ASCVD risk varied by disaggregated racial/ethnic subgroups, with a predicted-to-observed ratio of ASCVD events ranging from 1.1 for Puerto Rican patients to 1.9 for Chinese patients. The PCE had adequate discrimination, although it varied significantly by race/ethnic subgroups (C-indices 0.66-0.83). Recalibration of the PCE did not significantly improve its performance. Conclusions Using electronic health record data from a large, real-world population, we found that the PCE generally overestimated ASCVD risk, with marked heterogeneity by disaggregated Asian and Hispanic subgroups.
Project description:Background Recent evidence suggests that racial/ethnic differences in circulating levels of free or bioavailable 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25[ OH ]D) rather than total 25( OH )D may explain apparent racial disparities in cardiovascular disease ( CVD ). We prospectively examined black-white differences in the associations of total, free, and bioavailable 25( OH )D, vitamin D-binding protein, and parathyroid hormone levels at baseline with incident CVD (including nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and CVD death) in postmenopausal women. Methods and Results We conducted a case-cohort study among 79 705 postmenopausal women, aged 50 to 79 years, who were free of CVD at baseline in the WHI-OS (Women's Health Initiative Observational Study). A subcohort of 1300 black and 1500 white participants were randomly chosen as controls; a total of 550 black and 1500 white women who developed incident CVD during a mean follow-up of 11 years were chosen as cases. We directly measured total 25( OH )D, vitamin D-binding protein, albumin, parathyroid hormone, and calculated free and bioavailable 25( OH )D. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine their associations with CVD risk. Although vitamin D-binding protein and total, free, and bioavailable 25( OH )D were not significantly associated with CVD risk in black or white women, a significant positive association between parathyroid hormone and CVD risk persisted in white women (hazard ratio comparing the highest quartile with the lowest, 1.37; 95% CI , 1.06-1.77) but not in black women (hazard ratio comparing the highest quartile with the lowest, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.79-1.58), independent of total, free, and bioavailable 25( OH )D or vitamin D-binding protein. Conclusions Circulating levels of vitamin D biomarkers are not related to CVD risk in either white or black women. Higher parathyroid hormone levels may be an independent risk factor for CVD in white women.
Project description:The pooled cohort equations (PCE) predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in patients with characteristics within prespecified ranges and has uncertain performance among Asians or Hispanics. It is unknown if machine learning (ML) models can improve ASCVD risk prediction across broader diverse, real-world populations. We developed ML models for ASCVD risk prediction for multi-ethnic patients using an electronic health record (EHR) database from Northern California. Our cohort included patients aged 18 years or older with no prior CVD and not on statins at baseline (n = 262,923), stratified by PCE-eligible (n = 131,721) or PCE-ineligible patients based on missing or out-of-range variables. We trained ML models [logistic regression with L2 penalty and L1 lasso penalty, random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boosting] and determined 5-year ASCVD risk prediction, including with and without incorporation of additional EHR variables, and in Asian and Hispanic subgroups. A total of 4309 patients had ASCVD events, with 2077 in PCE-ineligible patients. GBM performance in the full cohort, including PCE-ineligible patients (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.835, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.825-0.846), was significantly better than that of the PCE in the PCE-eligible cohort (AUC 0.775, 95% CI: 0.755-0.794). Among patients aged 40-79, GBM performed similarly before (AUC 0.784, 95% CI: 0.759-0.808) and after (AUC 0.790, 95% CI: 0.765-0.814) incorporating additional EHR data. Overall, ML models achieved comparable or improved performance compared to the PCE while allowing risk discrimination in a larger group of patients including PCE-ineligible patients. EHR-trained ML models may help bridge important gaps in ASCVD risk prediction.
Project description:Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is an emerging predictor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) but the association from a perspective on current risk stratification was unknown. A cohort of 9944 Chinese patients with ASCVD was recruited and refined into very-high-risk (VHR) and non-VHR subgroups according to current guideline. Lp(a) plasma levels were divided by its concentration (<30, 30-50, 50-75, and ≥75 mg/dL) and percentile zones (<25th, 25-50th, 50-75th, 75-90th, ≥90th). Cardiovascular events (CVEs) occurred during an average of 38.5 months' follow-up were recorded. We found that Lp(a) was increased with risk stratification of ASCVD increasing. Prevalence of CVEs had a significantly increasing trend with gradients of Lp(a) elevation in VHR but not in non-VHR subgroup. The adjusted HRs (95%CIs) for CVEs were 1.75(1.25-2.46) in the highest group of Lp(a) ≥75 mg/dL compared with the group of Lp(a) <30 mg/dL as the reference in overall patients, 2.18(1.32-3.58) in VHR subgroup and 1.43(0.93-2.18) in non-VHR subgroup, respectively. The adjusted HRs (95%CIs) at the highest grade of Lp(a) levels (≥90th) were 1.72(1.19-2.50) in overall population, 2.83(1.53-5.24) in VHR subgroup and 1.38(0.86-2.12) in non-VHR subgroup, respectively. These findings suggested that Lp(a) might contribute more to CVEs risk in VHR subgroup of ASCVD.
Project description:Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] consists of a low-density lipoprotein-like molecule and an apolipoprotein(a) [apo(a)] particle. Lp(a) has been suggested to be an independent risk factor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Lp(a) plasma levels are considered to be 70-90% genetically determined through the codominant expression of the LPA gene. Therefore, Lp(a) levels are almost stable during an individual's lifetime. This lifelong stability, together with the difficulties in measuring Lp(a) levels in a standardized manner, may account for the scarcity of available drugs targeting Lp(a). In this review, we synopsize the latest data regarding the structure, metabolism, and factors affecting circulating levels of Lp(a), as well as the laboratory determination measurement of Lp(a), its role in the pathogenesis of ASCVD and thrombosis, and the potential use of various therapeutic agents targeting Lp(a). In particular, we discuss novel agents, such as antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) and small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) that are currently being developed and target Lp(a). The promising role of muvalaplin, an oral inhibitor of Lp(a) formation, is then further analyzed.
Project description:ImportanceDespite efforts to improve the quality of care for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), it is unclear whether the US has made progress in reducing racial and ethnic differences in utilization of guideline-recommended therapies for secondary prevention.ObjectiveTo evaluate 21-year trends in racial and ethnic differences in utilization of guideline-recommended pharmacological medications and lifestyle modifications among US adults with ASCVD.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study includes data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1999 and 2020. Eligible participants were adults aged 18 years or older with a history of ASCVD. Data were analyzed between March 2022 and May 2023.ExposureSelf-reported race and ethnicity.Main outcome and measuresRates and racial and ethnic differences in the use of guideline-recommended pharmacological medications and lifestyle modifications.ResultsThe study included 5218 adults with a history of ASCVD (mean [SD] age, 65.5 [13.2] years, 2148 women [weighted average, 44.2%]), among whom 1170 (11.6%) were Black, 930 (7.7%) were Hispanic or Latino, and 3118 (80.7%) were White in the weighted sample. Between 1999 and 2020, there was a significant increase in total cholesterol control and statin use in all racial and ethnic subgroups, and in angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) utilization in non-Hispanic White individuals and Hispanic and Latino individuals (Hispanic and Latino individuals: 17.12 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.37-37.88 percentage points; P = .046; non-Hispanic White individuals: 12.14 percentage points; 95% CI, 6.08-18.20 percentage points; P < .001), as well as smoking cessation within the Hispanic and Latino population (-27.13 percentage points; 95% CI, -43.14 to -11.12 percentage points; P = .002). During the same period, the difference in smoking cessation between Hispanic and Latino individuals and White individuals was reduced (-24.85 percentage points; 95% CI, -38.19 to -11.51 percentage points; P < .001), but racial and ethnic differences for other metrics did not change significantly. Notably, substantial gaps persisted between current care and optimal care throughout the 2 decades of data analyzed. In the period of 2017 to 2020, optimal regimens were observed in 47.4% (95% CI, 39.3%-55.4%), 48.7% (95% CI, 36.7%-60.6%), and 53.0% (95% CI, 45.6%-60.4%) of Black, Hispanic and Latino, and White individuals, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study of US adults with ASCVD, significant disparities persisted between current care and optimal care, surpassing any differences observed among demographic groups. These findings highlight the critical need for sustained efforts to bridge these gaps and achieve better outcomes for all patients, regardless of their racial and ethnic backgrounds.
Project description:Lipoprotein(a) is a highly heritable biomarker independently associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). It is unclear whether measured lipoprotein(a) or genetic factors associated with lipoprotein(a) can provide comparable or additional prognostic information for primary prevention. To determine whether a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising 43 variants at the LPA gene, which encodes apolipoprotein(a), has clinical utility in assessing ASCVD risk compared with and in addition to lipoprotein(a) measurement. The UK Biobank is a prospective observational study of approximately 500 000 volunteers aged 40 to 69 years who were recruited from 22 sites across the United Kingdom between 2006 and 2010. Using externally derived weights, an LPA GRS was calculated for 374 099 unrelated individuals with array-derived genotypes and lipoprotein(a) measures. Data were analyzed from April 2020 to March 2020. Measured lipoprotein(a) and LPA GRS. We estimated the associations between measured lipoprotein(a) and LPA GRS with the incidence of ASCVD (peripheral arterial disease, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular mortality) using Cox proportional hazards models. To determine the utility of using measured lipoprotein(a) and LPA GRS as risk enhancers for ASCVD, we assessed the potential improvement in ASCVD risk discrimination by QRISK3 and Pooled Cohort Equations among individuals with borderline to intermediate risk (n = 113 703 and 144 350, respectively). The mean age of the overall study population was 57.6 years, and 204 355 individuals were female (54.6%). During a median follow-up of 11.1 years (interquartile range, 1.4 years), 15 444 individuals developed an incident ASCVD event (5.1%). The LPA GRS explained approximately 60% of the variation in measured lipoprotein(a) for White/European individuals. Independently, both lipoprotein(a) and LPA GRS were associated with incident, composite ASCVD (hazard ratio per 120 nmol/L increase, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.23-1.28 vs hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.26-1.33; P < .001). The association between LPA GRS and ASCVD was substantially attenuated after adjusting for measured lipoprotein(a). Adding measured lipoprotein(a) or LPA GRS to QRISK3 provided modest improvements to the risk discrimination of incident ASCVD events (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.640; 95% CI, 0.633-0.647 vs 0.642; 95% CI, 0.635-0.649 for both; P = .005 and P = .01, respectively). When indicated, cardiovascular risk assessment with lipoprotein(a) at middle-age may include direct measurement or an LPA GRS.
Project description:Disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated health and healthcare delivery outcomes have been partially attributed to differential risk factors, and to prevention and treatment inequities within racial and ethnic (including language) minority groups and low socioeconomic status (SES) populations in urban and rural settings. Digital health interventions (DHIs) show promise in promoting equitable access to high-quality care, optimal utilization, and improved outcomes; however, their potential role and impact has not been fully explored. The role of DHIs to mitigate drivers of the health disparities listed above in populations disproportionately affected by atherosclerotic-related CVD was systematically reviewed using published literature (January 2008-July 2020) from multiple databases. Study design, type and description of the technology, health disparities information, type of CVD, outcomes, and notable barriers and innovations associated with the technology utilized were abstracted. Study quality was assessed using the Oxford Levels of Evidence. Included studies described digital health technologies in a disparity population with CVD and reported outcomes. DHIs significantly improved health (eg, clinical, intermediate, and patient-reported) and healthcare delivery (eg, access, quality, and utilization of care) outcomes in populations disproportionately affected by CVD in 24 of 38 included studies identified from 2104 citations. Hypertension control was the most frequently improved clinical outcome. Telemedicine, mobile health, and clinical decision support systems were the most common types of DHIs identified. DHIs improved CVD-related health and healthcare delivery outcomes in racial/ethnic groups and low SES populations in both rural and urban geographies globally.
Project description:BackgroundRisk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) derived from the Framingham study are widely used to guide preventive efforts. It remains unclear whether these risk factors predict CVD death in racial/ethnic minorities as well as they do in the predominately white Framingham cohorts.Methods and resultsUsing linked data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988 to 1994) and the National Death Index, we developed Cox proportional hazard models that predicted time to cardiovascular death separately for non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB), and Mexican American (MA) participants ages 40 to 80 years with no previous CVD. We compared calibration and discrimination for the 3 racial/ethnic models. We also plotted predicted 10-year CVD mortality by age for the three racial/ethnic groups while holding other risk factors constant (3437 NHW, 1854 NHB, and 1834 MA subjects met inclusion criteria). Goodness-of-fit chi(2) tests demonstrated adequate calibration for the 3 models (NHW, P=0.49; NHB, P=0.47; MA; P=0.55), and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated similar discrimination (c-statistics: NHW, 0.8126; NHB, 0.7679; and MA, 0.7854). Older age was more strongly associated with CVD mortality in NHWs (hazard ratio, 3.37; 95% CI, 2.80 to 4.05) than NHBs (hazard ratio, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.91 to 2.75) and was intermediate in MAs (hazard ratio, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.95 to 3.11). Predicted 10-year mortality rate was highest for NHBs across all age ranges and was higher for MAs than NHWs until late in the seventh decade.ConclusionsFramingham risk factors predict CVD mortality equally well in NHWs, NHBs, and MAs, but the strength of the association between individual risk factors and CVD mortality differs by race and ethnicity. When other risk factors are held constant, minority individuals are at higher risk of CVD mortality at younger ages than NHWs.