Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cholera, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2016-2020.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ratnayake R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11286051 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cholera, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2016-2020.
Ratnayake Ruwan R Knee Jackie J Cumming Oliver O Saidi Jaime Mufitini JM Rumedeka Baron Bashige BB Finger Flavio F Azman Andrew S AS Edmunds W John WJ Checchi Francesco F Gallandat Karin K
Emerging infectious diseases 20240801 8
We evaluated the spatiotemporal clustering of rapid diagnostic test-positive cholera cases in Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. We detected spatiotemporal clusters that consistently overlapped with major rivers, and we outlined the extent of zones of increased risk that are compatible with the radii currently used for targeted interventions. ...[more]
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Project description:Our understanding of the burden and drivers of cholera mortality is hampered by limited surveillance and confirmation capacity. Leveraging enhanced clinical and laboratory surveillance in the cholera-endemic community of Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, we describe cholera deaths across 3 epidemics between September 2021 and September 2023 following mass vaccination.
| S-EPMC10946650 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionCholera is endemic in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1978, and Uvira in South-Kivu has been reporting suspected cholera cases nearly every week for over a decade. The clinical case definition for suspected cholera is relatively non-specific, and cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory methods, especially in endemic settings. This may lead to over-estimation of cholera cases and limit effective public health responses.Methods and resultsBetween April 2016 and November 2017, 69% of the 2,059 patients admitted to the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC) were tested for cholera with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of those admitted as suspected cholera cases, only 40% tested positive for cholera, equivalent to an estimated annual incidence of suspected/confirmed cholera in Uvira of 43.8 and 16.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. A multivariable logistic regression indicates that boys aged 2 to 4 years, girls aged 5 to 15 years and adult men are respectively 1.9, 2.1 and 1.8 times more likely to test positive than adult women. On the contrary, boys under 2 are 10 times less likely to test positive. The odds of testing positive also increase as weekly admissions to the CTC rise, with up to a 5-fold increase observed during the weeks with the highest numbers of admissions compared to the lowest ones. Other predictors of cholera confirmation include duration of stay at the CTC, clinical outcome of admission, lower weekly rainfall and area of residence in Uvira, with the northern part of town having the highest confirmation rate.ConclusionCholera is an on-going public health problem in Uvira but the majority of suspected cases admitted to the CTC were found to be negative for cholera after RDT testing. These findings may have important implications for cholera control strategies in favour of interventions that address cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases alike.
| S-EPMC6070262 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCholera remains a major global health challenge. Uvira, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has had endemic cholera since the 1970's and has been implicated as a possible point of origin for national outbreaks. A previous study among this population, reported a case confirmation rate of 40% by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) among patients at the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC). This study considers the prevalence and diversity of 15 enteric pathogens in suspected cholera cases seeking treatment at the Uvira CTC.MethodsWe used the Luminex xTAG® multiplex PCR to test for 15 enteric pathogens, including toxigenic strains of V. cholerae in rectal swabs preserved on Whatman FTA Elute cards. Results were interpreted on MAGPIX® and analyzed on the xTAG® Data Analysis Software. Prevalence of enteric pathogens were calculated and pathogen diversity was modelled with a Poisson regression.ResultsAmong 269 enrolled CTC patients, PCR detected the presence of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in 38% (103/269) of the patients, which were considered to be cholera cases. These strains were detected as the sole pathogen in 36% (37/103) of these cases. Almost half (45%) of all study participants carried multiple enteric pathogens (two or more). Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (36%) and Cryptosporidium (28%) were the other most common pathogens identified amongst all participants. No pathogen was detected in 16.4% of study participants. Mean number of pathogens was highest amongst boys and girls aged 1-15 years and lowest in women aged 16-81 years. Ninety-three percent of toxigenic V. cholerae strains detected by PCR were found in patients having tested positive for V. cholerae O1 by RDT.ConclusionsOur study supports previous results from DRC and other cholera endemic areas in sub-Sahara Africa with less than half of CTC admissions positive for cholera by PCR. More research is required to determine the causes of severe acute diarrhea in these low-resource, endemic areas to optimize treatment measures.Trial registrationThis study is part of the impact evaluation study entitled: "Impact Evaluation of Urban Water Supply Improvements on Cholera and Other Diarrheal Diseases in Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo" registered on 10 October 2016 at clinicaltrials.gov Identification number: NCT02928341 .
| S-EPMC7547509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince the early 1970s, cholera outbreaks have been a major public health burden in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cholera cases have been reported in a quasi-continuous manner in certain lakeside areas in the Great Lakes Region. As these cholera-endemic health zones constitute a starting point for outbreaks and diffusion towards other at-risk areas, they play a major role in cholera dynamics in the country. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots and adjusting interventions accordingly thus reduces the disease burden in an efficient and cost-effective manner.MethodsA literature review was conducted to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the DRC at the province level from 1973 to 1999. We then identified and classified cholera hotspots at the provincial and health zone levels from 2003 to 2022 and described the spatiotemporal evolution of hotspots. We also applied and compared three different classification methods to ensure that cholera hotspots are identified and classified according to the DRC context.ResultsAccording to all three methods, high-priority hotspots were concentrated in the eastern Great Lakes Region. Overall, hotspots largely remained unchanged over the course of the study period, although slight improvements were observed in some eastern hotspots, while other non-endemic areas in the west experienced an increase in cholera outbreaks. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) and the Department of Ecology and Infectious Disease Control (DEIDC) methods largely yielded similar results for the high-risk hotspots. However, the medium-priority hotspots identified by the GTFCC method were further sub-classified by the DEIDC method, thereby providing a more detailed ranking for priority targeting.ConclusionsOverall, the findings of this comprehensive study shed light on the dynamics of cholera hotspots in the DRC from 1973 to 2022. These results may serve as an evidence-based foundation for public health officials and policymakers to improve the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan, guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the impact of cholera in vulnerable communities.
| S-EPMC10976723 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We studied the epidemiology of cholera in Katanga and Eastern Kasai, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, by compiling a database including all cases recorded from 2000 through 2005. Results show that lakes were the sources of outbreaks and demonstrate the inadequacy of the strategy used to combat cholera.
| S-EPMC2600234 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSafely managed drinking water is critical to prevent diarrhoeal diseases, including cholera, but evidence on the effectiveness of piped water supply in reducing these diseases in low-income and complex emergency settings remains scarce.MethodsWe conducted a trial of water supply infrastructure improvements in Uvira (DRC). Our primary objective was to estimate the relationship between a composite index of water service quality and the monthly number of suspected cholera cases admitted to treatment facilities and, as a secondary analysis, the number of cases confirmed by rapid diagnostic tests. Other exposures included the quantity of supplied water and service continuity. We used Poisson generalised linear models with generalised estimating equations to estimate incidence rate ratios.FindingsAssociations between suspected cholera incidence and water service quality (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·73-1·01), quantity (RR 0·80, 95% CI 0·62-1·02) and continuity (RR 0·81, 95% CI 0·77-0·86) were estimated. The magnitudes of the associations were similar between confirmed cholera incidence and water service quality (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·73-0·97), quantity (RR 0·76, 95% CI 0·61-0·94) and continuity (RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·69-0·81). These results suggest that an additional 5 L/user/day or 1.2 hour per day of water production could reduce confirmed cholera by 24% (95% CI 6-39%) and 25% (95% CI 19-31%), respectively.InterpretationEnsuring a sufficient and continuous piped water supply may substantially reduce the burden of endemic cholera and diarrhoeal diseases but evaluating this rigorously is challenging. Pragmatic strategies are needed for public health research on complex interventions in protracted emergency settings.Trial registrationThe trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02928341. https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02928341.
| S-EPMC11251581 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn 2019-2020, preventative Oral Cholera Vaccine campaigns were conducted in 24/32 non-contiguous health areas of Goma, DR Congo. In August 2022, we measured coverage and factors potentially influencing success of the delivery strategy.MethodsWe used random geo-sampled stratified cluster survey to estimate OCV coverage and assess population movement, diarrhea history, and reasons for non-vaccination.Results603 households were visited. Coverage with at least one dose was 46.4 % (95 %CI: 41.8-51.0), and 50.1 % (95 %CI: 45.4-54.8) in areas targeted by vaccination compared to 26.3 % (95 %CI: 19.2-34.9) in non-targeted areas. Additionally, 7.0 % of participants reported moving from outside Goma since 2019, and 5.4 % reported history of severe diarrhea. Absence and unawareness were the main reasons for non-vaccination.ConclusionResults suggest that targeting non-contiguous urban areas had a coverage-diluting effect. Targeting entire geographically contiguous areas, adapted distribution, and regular catch-up campaigns are operational recommendations to reach higher coverages arising from the study.
| S-EPMC11417590 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiarrhoea is one of the leading causes of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among children below five years, though the proportion of the burden occurring amongst those aged over 70 is increasing. The cost of treating and managing diarrhoea can place a burden on individuals, their households, and society in general. The cost can be high but is often undocumented, and many studies focus on children or hospitalised patients only. This study aimed to estimate the economic cost per case of diarrhoea amongst individuals of any age in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo.MethodsThe study was cross-sectional and retrospective, and based on a household survey approximately representative of the city undertaken in September 2021. Data on quantities and prices of resources were collected in the survey, as well as from interviews with staff at the Cholera Treatment Centre in the Uvira general hospital and their records on resource use and patient numbers. Direct and indirect costs were measured from the societal perspective, and generalised linear regression used to identify factors associated with higher costs.ResultsOf 2,820 members of the 528 households surveyed, 175 people (6.2%) were reported to have had diarrhoea in the previous seven days. The majority sought care (91%) of which most (64%) visited a pharmacy. The average economic cost of illness (COI) for an episode of diarrhoea was 33,816 Congolese Francs (CDF) (US$ 17.0) in 2021 prices. The median was CDF 14,000 (US$ 7.0). The average out of pocket COI to patients was CDF 15,579 (US$ 7.8), representing 9% of the estimated average monthly income of households. On average caregivers and patients lost 4 days per episode. A concentration index suggested a lower economic COI among poorer households (p=0.099). A regression analysis identified that being older than 5 years (p=0.001) or being water insecure (p=0.032) were associated with higher COI.ConclusionHouseholds in Uvira experience many diarrhoeal episodes per year, and the COI is an important burden for them and society. These costs could be avoided if diarrhoea were prevented through public health interventions to reduce prevalence and care-seeking was better managed to avert this public health burden.
| S-EPMC11542808 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.
| S-EPMC9707578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCholera outbreaks in western Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are thought to be primarily the result of westward spread of cases from the Great Lakes Region. However, other patterns of spatial spread in this part of the country should not be excluded. The aim of this study was to explore alternative routes of spatial spread in western DRC.MethodsA literature review was conducted to reconstruct major outbreak expansions of cholera in western DRC since its introduction in 1973. We also collected data on cholera cases reported at the health zone (HZ) scale by the national surveillance system during 2000-2018. Based on data from routine disease surveillance, we identified two subperiods (week 45, 2012-week 42, 2013 and week 40, 2017-week 52, 2018) for which the retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was implemented to detect spatiotemporal clusters of cholera cases and then to infer the spread patterns in western DRC other than that described in the literature.ResultsBeyond westward and cross-border spread in the West Congo Basin from the Great Lakes Region, other dynamics of cholera epidemic propagation were observed from neighboring countries, such as Angola, to non-endemic provinces of southwestern DRC. Space-time clustering analyses sequentially detected clusters of cholera cases from southwestern DRC to the northern provinces, demonstrating a downstream-to-upstream spread along the Congo River.ConclusionsThe spread of cholera in western DRC is not one-sided. There are other patterns of spatial spread, including a propagation from downstream to upstream areas along the Congo River, to be considered as preferential trajectories of cholera in western DRC.
| S-EPMC8684622 | biostudies-literature