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ABSTRACT: Background
The accuracy of a diagnostic test depends on its intrinsic characteristics and the disease incidence. This study aims to depict post-test probability of Pneumocystis pneumonia (PJP), according to results of PCR and Beta-D-Glucan (BDG) tests in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF).Materials and methods
Diagnostic performance of PCR and BDG was extracted from literature. Incidence of Pneumocystis pneumonia was assessed in a dataset of 2243 non-HIV immunocompromised patients with ARF. Incidence of Pneumocystis pneumonia was simulated assuming a normal distribution in 5000 random incidence samples. Post-test probability was assessed using Bayes theorem.Results
Incidence of PJP in non-HIV ARF patients was 4.1% (95%CI 3.3-5). Supervised classification identified 4 subgroups of interest with incidence ranging from 2.0% (No ground glass opacities; 95%CI 1.4-2.8) to 20.2% (hematopoietic cell transplantation, ground glass opacities and no PJP prophylaxis; 95%CI 14.1-27.7). In the overall population, positive post-test probability was 32.9% (95%CI 31.1-34.8) and 22.8% (95%CI 21.5-24.3) for PCR and BDG, respectively. Negative post-test probability of being infected was 0.10% (95%CI 0.09-0.11) and 0.23% (95%CI 0.21-0.25) for PCR and BDG, respectively. In the highest risk subgroup, positive predictive value was 74.5% (95%CI 72.0-76.7) and 63.8% (95%CI 60.8-65.8) for PCR and BDG, respectively.Conclusion
Although both tests yield a high intrinsic performance, the low incidence of PJP in this cohort resulted in a low positive post-test probability. We propose a method to illustrate pre and post-test probability relationship that may improve clinician perception of diagnostic test performance according to disease incidence in predefined clinical settings.
SUBMITTER: Calvet L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11291821 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Calvet Laure L Lemiale Virginie V Mokart Djamel D Peter Schellongowski S Peter Pickkers P Demoule Alexande A Mehta Sangeeta S Kouatchet Achille A Rello Jordi J Bauer Philippe P Martin-Loeches Ignacio I Seguin Amelie A Metaxa Victoria V Bisbal Magali M Azoulay Elie E Darmon Michael M
Annals of intensive care 20240731 1
<h4>Background</h4>The accuracy of a diagnostic test depends on its intrinsic characteristics and the disease incidence. This study aims to depict post-test probability of Pneumocystis pneumonia (PJP), according to results of PCR and Beta-D-Glucan (BDG) tests in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF).<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Diagnostic performance of PCR and BDG was extracted from literature. Incidence of Pneumocystis pneumonia was assessed in a dataset of 2243 non-HIV immunocompromi ...[more]