Dataset Information

Can the Risk Analysis Index for Frailty Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing High-risk Surgery?

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine the effectiveness of the revised Risk Analysis Index (RAI-rev), administrative Risk Analysis Index (RAI-A), cancer-corrected Risk Analysis Index [RAI-rev (cancer-corrected)], and 5-variable modified Frailty Index for predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk surgery.

Background

There are several frailty composite measures, but none have been evaluated for predicting morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk surgery.

Methods

Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we performed a retrospective study of patients who underwentcolectomy/proctectomy, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), pancreaticoduodenectomy, lung resection, or esophagectomy from 2006 to 2017. RAI-rev, RAI-A, RAI-rev (cancer corrected), and 5-variable modified Frailty Index scores were calculated. Pearson's chi-square tests and C-statistics were used to assess the predictive accuracy of each score's logistic regression model.

Results

In the cohort of 283,545 patients, there were 178,311 (63%) colectomy/proctectomy, 38,167 (14%) pancreaticoduodenectomy, 40,328 (14%) lung resection, 16,127 (6%) CABG, and 10,602 (3%) esophagectomy cases. The RAI-rev was a fair predictor of mortality in the total cohort (C-statistic, 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.71, P < 0.001) and for patients who underwent colectomy/proctectomy (C-statistic 0.73, 95% CI 0.72-0.74, P < 0.001) and CABG (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.68-0.73, P < 0.001), but a poor predictor of mortality in all other operation cohorts. The RAI-A was a fair predictor of mortality for colectomy/proctectomy patients (C-statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.73- 0.74, P < 0.001). All indices were poor predictors of morbidity. The RAI-rev (cancer corrected) did not improve the accuracy of morbidity and mortality prediction.

Conclusion

The presently studied frailty indices are ineffective predictors of 30-day morbidity and mortality for patients undergoing high-risk operations.

SUBMITTER: Wan MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11292114 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Can the Risk Analysis Index for Frailty Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing High-risk Surgery?

Wan Michelle A MA Clark James M JM Nuño Miriam M Cooke David T DT Brown Lisa M LM

Annals of surgery 20201117 6

<h4>Objective</h4>To determine the effectiveness of the revised Risk Analysis Index (RAI-rev), administrative Risk Analysis Index (RAI-A), cancer-corrected Risk Analysis Index [RAI-rev (cancer-corrected)], and 5-variable modified Frailty Index for predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk surgery.<h4>Background</h4>There are several frailty composite measures, but none have been evaluated for predicting morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk sur ...[more]

PMID: 33214473

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Project description:BackgroundFrailty predicts an increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Comparison of the predictive performance between two deficit accumulation models of frailty, the modified frailty index (mFI) and the revised-Risk Analysis Index (RAI-rev), is poorly understood. This study compared the predictive abilities of the above two frailty indices in predicting life-threatening morbidity and mortality among older patients following elective high-risk abdominal surgery.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study extracted perioperative data of older patients (age ≥65 years) undergoing elective high-risk abdominal surgery at a single institution between January 2018 and December 2020. Preoperative frailty was screened by mFI and RAI-rev scoring systems. The primary outcome was the composite of postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality during hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of the two frailty indices with the primary outcome. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to test the predictive performances of the two frailty instruments in predicting the composite primary outcome. The difference between the area under the curves (AUCs) was assessed by DeLong's test.Results1,132 older patients (mean age, 73.4 ± 6.2 years; 63.9% male) were included. Of these, 107 (9.5%) developed postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, rising continuous frailty scores (mFI: adjusted OR 1.319 per 0.09-point increase in score, 95% CI 1.151-1.511, p < 0.001; RAI-rev: adjusted OR 1.052 per 1-point increase in score, 95% CI 1.018-1.087, p = 0.002) as well as dichotomized frailty measures (mFI ≥0.27: adjusted OR 2.059, 95% CI 1.328-3.193, p = 0.001; RAI-rev ≥45: adjusted OR 1.862, 95% CI 1.188-2.919, p = 0.007) were associated with increased odds of the primary outcome separately. ROC curve analysis showed that the discrimination of mFI and RAI-rev scores for the life-threatening morbidity and mortality was poor and comparable (AUC: 0.598 [95% CI 0.569-0.627] vs. 0.613 [95% CI 0.583-0.641]; DeLong's test: Z = 0.375, p = 0.7075).ConclusionHigh mFI and RAI-rev scores were associated with an increased risk of life-threatening morbidity and mortality in older patients undergoing elective high-risk abdominal surgery. However, both frailty indices displayed poor discrimination for postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality.

Project description:BackgroundMany assessment tools have been used to identify frail surgical patients. This study was designed to explore the prediction value of the frailty index (FI) for postoperative morbidity in older patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery.MethodsBetween January 2019 and September 2020, we conducted a prospective study in our hospital, and patients aged over 65 years were enrolled. The FI assessment was conducted by two specialist nurses based on the 38-item scale, and patients were considered frail if the FI score was ≥ 0.25. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative morbidity. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to find the risk factors related to postoperative morbidity.ResultsA total of 246 consecutive patients were enrolled, for whom the median age was 72.0 [interquartile range (IQR): 67.0-77.0] years old, and 175 (71.1%) were male. Of these, 47 (19.1%) were frail. Patients with frailty were associated with older age (p < 0.001), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (p = 0.006), lower body mass index (p = 0.001), lower albumin (p = 0.003) and haemoglobin (p < 0.001) levels, increased blood loss (p = 0.034), increased risk of postoperative morbidity (p < 0.001), increased median length of stay (p = 0.017), and increased median postoperative hospital stay (p = 0.003). Multivariable analysis revealed that ASA grade [odds ratio (OR): 2.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-5.64, p = 0.016], FI score (OR 7.68, 95% CI 3.19-18.48, p < 0.001) and surgical complexity (OR 22.83, 95% CI 5.46-95.51, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of 30-day postoperative morbidity. However, for patients with major surgery, FI score was the only independent predictor (OR 8.67, 95% CI 3.23-23.25, p < 0.001).ConclusionFrailty was associated with adverse perioperative outcomes, and the 38-item FI scale was a useful frailty screening tool for older patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery. For patients with major surgery, frailty was a more reliable predictor of postoperative 30-day morbidity than age and ASA grade.

Project description:BackgroundAcute Kidney Injury (AKI) represents a clinical condition with poor prognosis. The incidence of AKI in hospitalized patients was about 22-57%. Patients undergoing cardiac surgery (CS) are particularly exposed to AKI because of the related oxidative stress, inflammation and ischemia-reperfusion damage. Hence, the risk profile of patients undergoing CS who develop AKI and who are consequently at increased mortality risk deserves further investigation.MethodsWe designed a retrospective study examining consecutive patients undergoing any type of open-heart surgery from January to December 2018. Patients with a history of AKI were excluded. AKI was diagnosed according to KDIGO criteria. Univariate associations between clinical variables and AKI were tested using logistic regression analysis. Variable thresholds maximizing the association with AKI were measured with the Youden index. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictors of AKI through backward selection. Mortality risk factors were assessed through the Cox proportional hazard model.ResultsWe studied 158 patients (mean age 51.2±9.7 years) of which 74.7% were males. Types of procedures performed were: isolated coronary artery bypass (CABG, 50.6%), valve (28.5%), aortic (3.2%) and combined (17.7%) surgery. Overall, incidence of AKI was 34.2%. At multivariable analysis, young age (p = 0.016), low blood glucose levels (p = 0.028), estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (p = 0.007), pH (p = 0.008), type of intervention (p = 0.031), prolonged extracorporeal circulation (ECC, p = 0.028) and cross-clamp (p = 0.021) times were associated with AKI. The threshold for detecting AKI were 91 and 51 minutes for ECC and cross-clamp times, respectively. At survival analysis, the presence of AKI, prolonged ECC and cross-clamp times, and low blood glucose levels forecasted mortality.ConclusionsAKI is common among CS patients and associates with shortened life-expectancy. Several pre-operative and intra-operative predictors are associated with AKI and future mortality. Future studies, aiming at improving prognosis in high-risk patients, by a stricter control of these factors, are awaited.

Project description:ImportanceFrailty represents a multidimensional syndrome that is increasingly being used to stratify risk in surgical patients. Current frailty risk models are limited among those undergoing thyroid or parathyroid surgery.ObjectiveTo develop and compare preoperative risk indices to determine factors associated with short-term major postoperative adverse events in patients undergoing thyroid or parathyroid surgery.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study evaluated 154 895 patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program who underwent thyroid or parathyroid surgery from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016.ExposuresPreoperative frailty-related and surgical factors from a derivation cohort were evaluated using simple and multiple logistic regression. Variables potentially associated with postoperative adverse events were subsequently combined into a personalized preoperative Cervical Endocrine Surgery Risk Index (CESRI) and compared with existing risk models using the validation cohort.Main outcomes and measuresComposite variable of any major postoperative adverse event, including death, within 30 days of surgery.ResultsOf the 154 895 operations reviewed, 3318 patients (2.1%; 2296 women and 1022 men; mean [SD] age, 56.1 [15.6] years) experienced a major postoperative adverse event, with 163 deaths (0.1%). Older age (age, ≥80 years: odds ratio [OR], 2.35; 95% CI, 1.74-3.13), inpatient status (OR, 3.55; 95% CI, 3.08-4.11), male sex (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.29-1.71), current tobacco smoking (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.48), dyspnea (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.29-1.91), recent weight loss (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.23-2.78), functional dependence (OR, 2.77; 95% CI, 2.05-3.69), obesity (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.10-1.60), anemia (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.82-2.52), leukocytosis (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.38-2.14), hypoalbuminemia (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.56-2.23), use of anticoagulation (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.64-2.81), and length of surgery (>4 hours: OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 2.37-3.59) were independently associated with major adverse events or death on multiple regression analysis (C statistic, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78). The area under the curve of the CESRI to determine major adverse events, including death, using the validation cohort was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64), with a sensitivity of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.64-0.68) and specificity of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.66). The CESRI outperformed other risk models for determining adverse events (CESRI vs 5-Factor Modified Frailty Index: delta C index, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.09-0.13; CESRI vs American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System: delta C index, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.03-0.07; CESRI vs American College of Surgeons Risk Calculator: delta C index, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03; and CESRI vs Head and Neck Surgery Risk Index: delta C index, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.03-0.06).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that the CESRI is able to determine major postoperative adverse events in patients undergoing thyroid or parathyroid surgery.

Project description:Introduction The management of spinal neoplasia consists of surgical, radiation, and systemic options. Little data exist to guide management based on overall health status, which is particularly challenging when patients who could benefit from surgery may be too frail for it. This study's objective was to evaluate the 5-Item Modified Frailty Index (mFI-5) as a predictor of 30-day morbidity in patients undergoing instrumented resection for metastatic extradural spinal tumors. Methods Adults undergoing extradural tumor resection from the 2011 to 2019 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program datasets were identified by Current Procedural Terminology codes 63275-63278 with an adjunct instrumentation code (22840-22843). Patients were classified into frailty levels 0, 1, or 2+ based on mFI-5 scores of 0, 1, or 2-5, respectively. The primary outcome was morbidity. Secondary outcomes were readmission and reoperation. Multivariate modeling was utilized to analyze mFI-5 as a predictor of outcomes. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to compare relative-model-fit based on frailty versus individual comorbidity variables to determine the optimal model. Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were used to establish significance between individual complications and frailty. Results There were 874 patients. Readmission, reoperation, and morbidity rates were 19.5%, 5.0%, 52.3%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, mFI-5=1 (OR: 1.45, SE: 0.31, p=0.036), mFI-5=2+ (OR: 1.41, SE: 0.40, p=0.036), operative time (OR: 1.18, SE: 0.03, p≤0.001), and chronic steroid use (OR: 1.56, SE: 0.42, p=0.037) independently predicted morbidity. Elective surgery (OR: 0.61) was protective. Frailty did not predict readmission or reoperation. Frailty was found to be significantly associated with respiratory complications, urinary tract infections, cardiac events, and sepsis/septic shock specifically. Conclusions mFI-5=1 independently predicted 45% increased odds of morbidity. mFI-5=2+ independently predicted 41% increased odds of morbidity. Further, every 30 additional minutes of operative time predicted 18% increased odds of morbidity, suggesting an increased risk of site-related complication events. Taken together, the mFI-5 serves as a valid predictor of morbidity in patients with extradural tumor undergoing instrumented excision.

Dataset Information

Can the Risk Analysis Index for Frailty Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing High-risk Surgery?

Objective

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Can the Risk Analysis Index for Frailty Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing High-risk Surgery?

Similar Datasets

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