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Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes.


ABSTRACT:

Objectives

A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes.

Methods

Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset.

Results

Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2.

Conclusion

Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk.

SUBMITTER: Choi MY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11293954 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes.

Choi May Yee MY   Chen Irene I   Clarke Ann Elaine AE   Fritzler Marvin J MJ   Buhler Katherine A KA   Urowitz Murray M   Hanly John J   St-Pierre Yvan Y   Gordon Caroline C   Bae Sang-Cheol SC   Romero-Diaz Juanita J   Sanchez-Guerrero Jorge J   Bernatsky Sasha S   Wallace Daniel J DJ   Isenberg David Alan DA   Rahman Anisur A   Merrill Joan T JT   Fortin Paul R PR   Gladman Dafna D DD   Bruce Ian N IN   Petri Michelle M   Ginzler Ellen M EM   Dooley Mary Anne MA   Ramsey-Goldman Rosalind R   Manzi Susan S   Jönsen Andreas A   Alarcón Graciela S GS   van Vollenhoven Ronald F RF   Aranow Cynthia C   Mackay Meggan M   Ruiz-Irastorza Guillermo G   Lim Sam S   Inanc Murat M   Kalunian Kenneth K   Jacobsen Søren S   Peschken Christine C   Kamen Diane L DL   Askanase Anca A   Buyon Jill P JP   Sontag David D   Costenbader Karen H KH  

Annals of the rheumatic diseases 20230421 7


<h4>Objectives</h4>A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes.<h4>Methods</h4>Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodie  ...[more]

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