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A novel nomogram for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute type A aortic dissection surgery: a retrospective study investigating the impact of ventilation duration on postoperative outcomes.

ABSTRACT: Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a devastating cardiovascular disease with extraordinary morbidity and mortality. Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a common complication following ATAAD surgery, leading to adverse outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between mechanical ventilation time (MVT) and prognosis and to devise a nomogram for predicting PMV after ATAAD surgery. This retrospective study enrolled 1049 ATAAD patients from 2011 to 2019. Subgroups were divided into < 12 h, 12 h to < 24 h, 24 h to < 48 h, 48 h to < 72 h, and ≥ 72 h according to MVT. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared among the groups. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we investigated the relationship between each stratification of MVT and mortality. A nomogram was constructed based on the refined multivariable logistic regression model for predicting PMV. The total mortality was 11.8% (124/1049). The results showed that the groups with MVT 48 h to < 72 h and ≥ 72 h had significantly higher operative mortality compared to other MVT categories. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MVT ≥72 h was significantly associated with higher short-term mortality. Thus, a nomogram was presented to elucidate the association between PMV (MVT ≥72 h) and risk factors including advanced age, preoperative cerebral ischemia, ascending aorta replacement, concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), longer cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), and large-volume intraoperative fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion. The nomogram exhibited strong predictive performance upon validation. Safely extubating patients within 72 h after ATAAD surgery is crucial for achieving favorable outcomes. The developed and validated nomogram provides a valuable tool for predicting PMV and optimizing postoperative care to improve patient prognosis. This novel nomogram has the potential to guide clinical decision-making and resource allocation in the management of ATAAD patients.

SUBMITTER: Yuanxi L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11342815 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel nomogram for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute type A aortic dissection surgery: a retrospective study investigating the impact of ventilation duration on postoperative outcomes.

Yuanxi Luo L Li Zeshi Z Jiang Xinyi X Jiang Yi Y Wang Dongjin D Xue Yunxing Y

Annals of medicine 20240822 1

<h4>Objective</h4>Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a devastating cardiovascular disease with extraordinary morbidity and mortality. Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a common complication following ATAAD surgery, leading to adverse outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between mechanical ventilation time (MVT) and prognosis and to devise a nomogram for predicting PMV after ATAAD surgery.<h4>Methods</h4>This retrospective study enrolled 1049 ATAAD patients fro ...[more]

PMID: 39172547

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Project description:BackgroundThis research aimed to evaluate the impacts of transfusing packed red blood cells (pRBCs), fresh frozen plasma (FFP), or platelet concentrate (PC) on postoperative mechanical ventilation time (MVT) in patients with acute Stanford type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) undergoing after total arch replacement (TAR).MethodsThe clinical data of 384 patients with ATAAD after TAR were retrospectively collected from December 2015 to October 2017 to verify whether pRBCs, FFP, or PC transfusion volumes were associated with postoperative MVT. The logistic regression was used to assess whether blood products were risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) in all three endpoints (PMV ≥24 h, ≥48 h, and ≥72 h).ResultsThe mean age of 384 patients was 47.6 ± 10.689 years, and 301 (78.39%) patients were men. Median MVT was 29.5 (4-574) h (h), and 213 (55.47%), 136 (35.42%), and 96 (25.00%) patients had PMV ≥24 h, ≥48 h, and ≥72 h, respectively. A total of 36 (9.38%) patients did not have any blood product transfusion, the number of patients with transfusion of pRBCs, FFP, and PC were 334 (86.98%), 286 (74.48%), and 189 (49.22%), respectively. According to the multivariate logistic regression of three PMV time-endpoints, age was a risk factor [PMV ≥ 24 h odds ratio (OR PMV≥24) = 1.045, p = 0.005; OR PMV≥48 = 1.060, p = 0.002; OR PMV≥72 = 1.051, p = 0.011]. pRBC transfusion (OR PMV≥24 = 1.156, p = 0.001; OR PMV≥48 = 1.156, p < 0.001; OR PMV≥72 = 1.135, p ≤ 0.001) and PC transfusion (OR PMV≥24 = 1.366, p = 0.029; OR PMV≥48 = 1.226, p = 0.030; OR PMV≥72 = 1.229, p = 0.011) were independent risk factors for PMV. FFP had no noticeable effect on PMV [OR PMV≥48 = 0.999, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.998-1.000, p = 0.039; OR PMV≥72 = 0.999, 95% CI: 0.998-1.000, p = 0.025].ConclusionsIn patients with ATAAD after TAR, the incidence of PMV was very high. Blood products transfusion was closely related to postoperative mechanical ventilation time. pRBC and PC transfusions and age increased the incidence of PMV at all three endpoints.

Project description:RationaleDuration of mechanical ventilation is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients and increased use of resources. The increasing complexity of medication regimens has been associated with increased mortality, length of stay, and fluid overload but has never been studied specifically in the setting of mechanical ventilation.ObjectiveThe purpose of this analysis was to develop prediction models for mechanical ventilation duration to test the hypothesis that incorporating medication data may improve model performance.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of adults admitted to the ICU and undergoing mechanical ventilation for longer than 24 hours from October 2015 to October 2020. Patients were excluded if it was not their index ICU admission or if the patient was placed on comfort care in the first 24 hours of admission. Relevant patient characteristics including age, sex, body mass index, admission diagnosis, morbidities, vital signs measurements, severity of illness, medication regimen complexity as measured by the MRC-ICU, and medical treatments before intubation were collected. The primary outcome was area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of prediction models for prolonged mechanical ventilation (defined as greater than 5 days). Both logistic regression and supervised learning techniques including XGBoost, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine were used to develop prediction models.ResultsThe 318 patients [age 59.9 (SD 16.9), female 39.3%, medical 28.6%] had mean 24-hour MRC-ICU score of 21.3 (10.5), mean APACHE II score of 21.0 (5.4), mean SOFA score of 9.9 (3.3), and ICU mortality rate of 22.6% (n=72). The strongest performing logistic model was the base model with MRC-ICU added, with AUROC of 0.72, positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.83, and negative prediction value (NPV) of 0.92. The strongest overall model was Random Forest with an AUROC of 0.78, a PPV of 0.53, and NPV of 0.90. Feature importance analysis using support vector machine and Random Forest revealed severity of illness scores and medication related data were the most important predictors.ConclusionsMedication regimen complexity is significantly associated with prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients, and prediction models incorporating medication information showed modest improvement in this prediction.

Project description:IntroductionDue to hospital crowding, mechanically ventilated patients are increasingly spending hours boarding in emergency departments (ED) before intensive care unit (ICU) admission. This study aims to evaluate the association between time ventilated in the ED and in-hospital mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS).MethodsThis was a multi-center, prospective, observational study of patients ventilated in the ED, conducted at three academic Level I Trauma Centers from July 2011 to March 2013. All consecutive adult patients on invasive mechanical ventilation were eligible for enrollment. We performed a Cox regression to assess for a mortality effect for mechanically ventilated patients with each hour of increasing LOS in the ED and multivariable regression analyses to assess for independently significant contributors to in-hospital mortality. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, with secondary outcomes of ventilator days, ICU LOS and hospital LOS. We further commented on use of lung protective ventilation and frequency of ventilator changes made in this cohort.ResultsWe enrolled 535 patients, of whom 525 met all inclusion criteria. Altered mental status without respiratory pathology was the most common reason for intubation, followed by trauma and respiratory failure. Using iterated Cox regression, a mortality effect occurred at ED time of mechanical ventilation > 7 hours, and the longer ED stay was also associated with a longer total duration of intubation. However, adjusted multivariable regression analysis demonstrated only older age and admission to the neurosciences ICU as independently associated with increased mortality. Of interest, only 23.8% of patients ventilated in the ED for over seven hours had changes made to their ventilator.ConclusionIn a prospective observational study of patients mechanically ventilated in the ED, there was a significant mortality benefit to expedited transfer of patients into an appropriate ICU setting.

Dataset Information

A novel nomogram for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute type A aortic dissection surgery: a retrospective study investigating the impact of ventilation duration on postoperative outcomes.

Publications

A novel nomogram for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute type A aortic dissection surgery: a retrospective study investigating the impact of ventilation duration on postoperative outcomes.

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