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Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

ABSTRACT: Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.

SUBMITTER: He F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11367033 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

He Fangfang F Liang Lu L Wang Huichun H Li Aijing A La Mencuo M Wang Yao Y Zhang Xiaoting X Zou Denglang D

Heliyon 20240806 16

Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model ...[more]

PMID: 39224369

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Project description:BackgroundMonitoring vegetation dynamics and their responses to climate change has been the subject of considerable research. This paper aims to detect change trends in grassland activity on the Tibetan Plateau between 1982 and 2006 and relate these to changes in climate.Methodology/principal findingsGrassland activity was analyzed by evaluating remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data collected at 15-day intervals between 1982 and 2006. The timings of vegetation stages (start of green-up, beginning of the growing season, plant maturity, start of senescence and end of the growing season) were assessed using the NDVI ratio method. Mean NDVI values were determined for major vegetation stages (green-up, fast growth, maturity and senescence). All vegetation variables were linked with datasets of monthly temperature and precipitation, and correlations between variables were established using Partial Least Squares regression. Most parts of the Tibetan Plateau showed significantly increasing temperatures, as well as clear advances in late season phenological stages by several weeks. Rainfall trends and significant long-term changes in early season phenology occurred on small parts of the plateau. Vegetation activity increased significantly for all vegetation stages. Most of these changes were related to increasing temperatures during the growing season and in some cases during the previous winter. Precipitation effects appeared less pronounced. Warming thus appears to have shortened the growing season, while increasing vegetation activity.Conclusions/significanceShortening of the growing season despite a longer thermally favorable period implies that vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau is unable to exploit additional thermal resources availed by climate change. Ecosystem composition may no longer be well attuned to the local temperature regime, which has changed rapidly over the past three decades. This apparent lag of the vegetation assemblage behind changes in climate should be taken into account when projecting the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes.

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Dataset Information

Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Publications

Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

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