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Cost-effectiveness of a precision hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy in patients with cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is currently performed using a one-size-fits-all strategy with ultrasound plus AFP (US + AFP). There is increasing interest in risk-stratified and precision surveillance strategies incorporating individual risk and variance in surveillance test performance; however, the cost-effectiveness of these approaches has not been evaluated. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate four surveillance strategies (no surveillance, universal US + AFP surveillance, risk-stratified surveillance, and precision surveillance) in a simulated cohort of 50-year-old patients with compensated cirrhosis. The most cost-effective strategy was that with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000/QALY gained. Model inputs were based on literature review, and costs were derived from the Medicare fee schedule. The precision surveillance strategy demonstrated variation in recommended surveillance test based on HCC risk category and patient factors. US + AFP, risk-stratified, and precision surveillance detected more HCC cases per 100,000 population than no surveillance, with a higher proportion of early-stage cases for precision surveillance (67.6%) than risk-stratified (63.8%), universal ultrasound (63.2%), and no surveillance (38.0%). Compared to no surveillance, precision surveillance was most cost-effective, with an ICER of $104,614/QALY gained, whereas US + AFP and risk-stratified surveillance were both dominated. Compared to US + AFP, risk-stratified surveillance was cost saving and dominated US + AFP, whereas precision surveillance was cost-effective, with an ICER of $98,103/QALY gained. Results were sensitive to survival with early-stage HCC, cost of early-stage HCC treatment, and surveillance utilization. Precision surveillance remained the most cost-effective when WTP thresholds exceeded $110,000/QALY gained. A precision surveillance strategy is the most cost-effective method for HCC surveillance. This approach could maximize surveillance benefits in high-risk patients, while minimizing surveillance harms in low-risk individuals. National Cancer Institute (U01 CA230694, R01 CA222900, R01 CA212008, and U24ca086368) and Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) (RP200554).

SUBMITTER: Kao SZ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11372615 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cost-effectiveness of a precision hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy in patients with cirrhosis.

Kao Szu-Yu Zoe SZ Sangha Kinpritma K Fujiwara Naoto N Hoshida Yujin Y Parikh Neehar D ND Singal Amit G AG

EClinicalMedicine 20240813

<h4>Background</h4>Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is currently performed using a one-size-fits-all strategy with ultrasound plus AFP (US + AFP). There is increasing interest in risk-stratified and precision surveillance strategies incorporating individual risk and variance in surveillance test performance; however, the cost-effectiveness of these approaches has not been evaluated.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate four surveillance strategies (no ...[more]

PMID: 39234558

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Project description:Background & aimsSuccessful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance.MethodsWe developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance.ResultsIn virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis.ConclusionBiannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis.Lay summaryIndividuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Project description:Over 20% of patients with cirrhosis are nonadherent with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations; however, few studies have evaluated the impact of patient-level factors on surveillance receipt. We characterized the association between HCC surveillance receipt and patient knowledge, attitudes, and perceived barriers in a racially diverse and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort of patients with cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis followed at a large urban hospital were invited to complete a survey about HCC surveillance between August 2014 and December 2015. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with HCC surveillance receipt during the 12-month period preceding and 6-month period after survey administration. We achieved a response rate of 71.8% (n = 541 of 753). Patients demonstrated high levels of HCC-related knowledge (summary score, 77.7%); however, 48.6% believed that eating a healthy diet precluded the need for HCC surveillance, and 34.0% believed that HCC surveillance was not necessary if they had a normal physical exam and/or lacked clinical symptoms. Patients expressed worry about developing and dying from HCC, but nearly half (49.9%) of patients reported barriers to receiving HCC surveillance, including difficulty with the scheduling process (30.5%), costs of surveillance testing (25.3%), and transportation difficulties (17.3%). HCC surveillance receipt was significantly higher in patients who knew cirrhosis is a risk factor for developing HCC (odds ratio [OR], 3.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-7.62) and significantly lower in those reporting barriers to surveillance (OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.70).Patients with cirrhosis are knowledgeable and interested in HCC surveillance; however, patient-reported barriers are associated with lower surveillance rates in clinical practice and represent potential intervention targets to improve HCC surveillance effectiveness. (Hepatology 2017;65:875-884).

Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of a precision hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy in patients with cirrhosis.

Publications

Cost-effectiveness of a precision hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy in patients with cirrhosis.

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