Dataset Information

Prospective study of one million deaths in India: rationale, design, and validation results.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality.

Methods and findings

We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998-2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004-2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998-2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004-2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors.

Conclusions

This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.

SUBMITTER: Jha P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1316066 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundStudies on the extent to which long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) contributes to adult mortality in India are few, despite over 99% of Indians being exposed to levels that the World Health Organization (WHO) considers unsafe.ObjectiveWe conducted a retrospective cohort study within the Million Death Study (MDS) to provide the first-ever quantification of national mortality from exposure to PM2.5 in India from 1999 to 2014.MethodsWe calculated relative risks (RRs) by linking a total of ten 3-y intervals of satellite-based estimated PM2.5 exposure to deaths 3 to 5 y later in over 7,400 small villages or urban blocks covering a total population of 6.8 million. We applied using a model-based geostatistical model, adjusted for individual age, sex, and year of death; smoking prevalence, rural/urban residency, area-level female illiteracy, languages, and spatial clustering and unit-level variation.ResultsPM2.5 exposure levels increased from 1999 to 2014, particularly in central and eastern India. Among 212,573 deaths at ages 15-69 y, after spatial adjustment, we found a significant RR of 1.09 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.04, 1.14] for stroke deaths per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, but no significant excess for deaths from chronic respiratory disease and ischemic heart disease (IHD), all nonaccidental causes, and total mortality (after excluding stroke). Spatial adjustment attenuated the RRs for chronic respiratory disease and IHD but raised those for stroke. The RRs were consistent in various sensitivity analyses with spatial adjustment, including stratifying by levels of solid fuel exposure, by sex, and by age group, addition of climatic variables, and in supplementary case-control analyses using injury deaths as controls.DiscussionDirect epidemiological measurements, despite inherent limitations, yielded associations between mortality and long-term PM2.5 inconsistent with those reported in earlier models used by the WHO to derive estimates of PM2.5 mortality in India. The modest RRs in our study are consistent with near or null mortality effects. They suggest suitable caution in estimating deaths from PM2.5 exposure based on MDS results and even more caution in extrapolating model-based associations of risk derived mostly from high-income countries to India. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9538.

Project description:The use of available treatments for Fabry disease (FD) (including enzyme replacement therapy [ERT]) may be restricted by their limited symptom improvement and mode of administration. Lucerastat is currently being investigated in the MODIFY study as oral substrate reduction therapy for the treatment of FD. By reducing the net globotriaosylceramide (Gb3) load in tissues, lucerastat has disease-modifying potential to improve symptoms and delay disease progression. MODIFY is a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-group Phase 3 study (ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT03425539); here we present the rationale and design of this study. Eligible adults with a genetically confirmed diagnosis of FD and FD-specific neuropathic pain entered screening. Patients were randomized (2:1) to receive either oral lucerastat twice daily or placebo for 6 months; treatment allocation was stratified according to sex and ERT treatment status. The main objectives of MODIFY are to assess the effects of lucerastat on neuropathic pain, gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, FD biomarkers, and determine its safety and tolerability. Neuropathic pain and GI symptoms are key features of FD that have a significant impact on quality of life. Despite various tools available to assess pain and GI symptoms, there are currently limited tools available to assess neuropathic and GI symptoms in FD, validated according to health authority guidelines. Based on FDA recommendations, we undertook a patient-reported outcome (PRO) validation study, using a novel eDiary-based PRO tool to assess the validity of evaluating neuropathic pain as a primary efficacy endpoint in MODIFY. Results from the PRO validation study are included. To date, MODIFY is the largest Phase 3 clinical study conducted in patients with FD. Enrollment to MODIFY is now complete, with 118 patients randomized. Results will be presented in a separate publication. Long-term effects of lucerastat are being assessed in the ongoing open-label extension study (NCT03737214).

Project description:RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES:Glomerular diseases, including minimal change disease, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, membranous nephropathy, and immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy, share clinical presentations, yet result from multiple biological mechanisms. Challenges to identifying underlying mechanisms, biomarkers, and new therapies include the rarity of each diagnosis and slow progression, often requiring decades to measure the effectiveness of interventions to prevent end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) or death. STUDY DESIGN:Multicenter prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Cure Glomerulonephropathy (CureGN) will enroll 2,400 children and adults with minimal change disease, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, membranous nephropathy, or IgA nephropathy (including IgA vasculitis) and a first diagnostic kidney biopsy within 5 years. Patients with ESKD and those with secondary causes of glomerular disease are excluded. EXPOSURES:Clinical data, including medical history, medications, family history, and patient-reported outcomes, are obtained, along with a digital archive of kidney biopsy images and blood and urine specimens at study visits aligned with clinical care 1 to 4 times per year. OUTCOMES:Patients are followed up for changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate, disease activity, ESKD, and death and for nonrenal complications of disease and treatment, including infection, malignancy, cardiovascular, and thromboembolic events. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:The study design supports multiple longitudinal analyses leveraging the diverse data domains of CureGN and its ancillary program. At 2,400 patients and an average of 2 years' initial follow-up, CureGN has 80% power to detect an HR of 1.4 to 1.9 for proteinuria remission and a mean difference of 2.1 to 3.0mL/min/1.73m2 in estimated glomerular filtration rate per year. LIMITATIONS:Current follow-up can only detect large differences in ESKD and death outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Study infrastructure will support a broad range of scientific approaches to identify mechanistically distinct subgroups, identify accurate biomarkers of disease activity and progression, delineate disease-specific treatment targets, and inform future therapeutic trials. CureGN is expected to be among the largest prospective studies of children and adults with glomerular disease, with a broad goal to lessen disease burden and improve outcomes.

Project description:Differentiation of Parkinson's disease (PD) from the various types of atypical parkinsonism (AP) such as multiple system atrophy (MSA), progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), corticobasal syndrome (CBS) and vascular parkinsonism (VP), can be challenging, especially early in the disease course when symptoms overlap. A major unmet need in the diagnostic workup of these disorders is a diagnostic tool that differentiates the various disorders, preferably in the earliest disease stages when the clinical presentation is similar. Many diagnostic tests have been evaluated, but their added value was studied mostly in retrospective case-control studies that included patients with a straightforward clinical diagnosis. Here, we describe the design of a prospective cohort study in patients with parkinsonism in an early disease stage who have an uncertain clinical diagnosis. Our aim is to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (1) detailed clinical examination by a movement disorder specialist, (2) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques and (3) cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers.Patients with parkinsonism with an uncertain clinical diagnosis and a disease course less than three years will be recruited. Patients will undergo extensive neurological examination, brain MRI including conventional and advanced sequences, and a lumbar puncture. The diagnosis (including level of certainty) will be defined by a movement disorders expert, neuroradiologist and neurochemist based on clinical data, MRI results and CSF results, respectively. The clinical diagnosis after three years' follow-up will serve as the "gold standard" reference diagnosis, based on consensus criteria and as established by two movement disorder specialists (blinded to the test results). Diagnostic accuracy of individual instruments and added value of brain MRI and CSF analysis after evaluation by a movement disorder expert will be calculated, expressed as the change in percentage of individuals that are correctly diagnosed with PD or AP.This study will yield new insights into the diagnostic value of clinical evaluation by a movement disorder specialist, brain MRI and CSF analysis in discriminating PD from AP in early disease stages. The outcome has the potential to help clinicians in choosing the optimal diagnostic strategy for patients with an uncertain clinical diagnosis.NCT01249768, registered November 26 2010.

Project description:Understanding the burden and pattern of mental disorders as well as mapping the existing resources for delivery of mental health services in India, has been a felt need over decades. Recognizing this necessity, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, commissioned the National Mental Health Survey (NMHS) in the year 2014-15. The NMHS aimed to estimate the prevalence and burden of mental health disorders in India and identify current treatment gaps, existing patterns of health-care seeking, service utilization patterns, along with an understanding of the impact and disability due to these disorders. This paper describes the design, steps and the methodology adopted for phase 1 of the NMHS conducted in India. The NMHS phase 1 covered a representative population of 39,532 from 12 states across 6 regions of India, namely, the states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh (North); Tamil Nadu and Kerala (South); Jharkhand and West Bengal (East); Rajasthan and Gujarat (West); Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (Central) and Assam and Manipur (North East). The NMHS of India (2015-16) is a unique representative survey which adopted a uniform and standardized methodology which sought to overcome limitations of previous surveys. It employed a multi-stage, stratified, random cluster sampling technique, with random selection of clusters based on Probability Proportionate to Size. It was expected that the findings from the NMHS 2015-16 would reveal the burden of mental disorders, the magnitude of the treatment gap, existing challenges and prevailing barriers in the mental-health delivery systems in the country at a single point in time. It is hoped that the results of NMHS will provide the evidence to strengthen and implement mental health policies and programs in the near future and provide the rationale to enhance investment in mental health care in India. It is also hoped that the NMHS will provide a framework for conducting similar population based surveys on mental health and other public health problems in low and middle-income countries.