Dataset Information

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

ABSTRACT: Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by approximately 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent approximately 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and approximately 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, approximately 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be approximately 420,000 US dollars per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 US dollars million each, the benefit is approximately 240 US dollars per tone of CH(4) ( approximately 12 US dollars per tone of CO(2) equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO(2). Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy.

SUBMITTER: West JJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1449633 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

West J Jason JJ Fiore Arlene M AM Horowitz Larry W LW Mauzerall Denise L DL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20060306 11

Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to m ...[more]

PMID: 16537473

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Project description:BackgroundTropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ? 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.ObjectivesWe examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years.MethodsWe simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions.ResultsWe estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function.ConclusionsIn addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Dataset Information

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

Publications

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

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