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U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains.

ABSTRACT: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on different lineages. When sequences were grouped by years of collection, nucleotide distance comparisons demonstrated an increase in diversity over time and indicated that contemporary strains are more closely related to early epidemic strains than to each other. Using a recently developed likelihood ratio reduction procedure, the date of origin of the U.S. epidemic was estimated to be 1968 +/- 1.4 years. A coalescent approach was also used to estimate the population history of the U.S. subtype B epidemic. Our analyses provide new information that implies an exponential growth rate from the beginning of the U.S. HIV epidemic. The dating results suggest a U.S. introduction date (or date of divergence from the most recent common ancestor) that precedes the date of the earliest known AIDS cases in the late 1970s. Furthermore, the estimated epidemic growth curve shows a period of exponential growth that preceded most of the early documented cases and also indicates a leveling of prevalence rates in the recent past.

SUBMITTER: Robbins KE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC155028 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains.

Robbins Kenneth E KE Lemey Philippe P Pybus Oliver G OG Jaffe Harold W HW Youngpairoj Ae S AS Brown Teresa M TM Salemi Marco M Vandamme Anne-Mieke AM Kalish Marcia L ML

Journal of virology 20030601 11

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on ...[more]

PMID: 12743293

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Project description:UNLABELLED:Coronaviruses are known to infect humans and other animals and cause respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases. Here we report the emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in the United States and determination of its origin, evolution, and genotypes based on temporal and geographical evidence. Histological lesions in small intestine sections of affected pigs and the complete genomic sequences of three emergent strains of PEDV isolated from outbreaks in Minnesota and Iowa were characterized. Genetic and phylogenetic analyses of the three U.S. strains revealed a close relationship with Chinese PEDV strains and their likely Chinese origin. The U.S. PEDV strains underwent evolutionary divergence, which can be classified into two sublineages. The three emergent U.S. strains are most closely related to a strain isolated in 2012 from Anhui Province in China, which might be the result of multiple recombination events between different genetic lineages or sublineages of PEDV. Molecular clock analysis of the divergent time based on the complete genomic sequences is consistent with the actual time difference, approximately 2 to 3 years, of the PED outbreaks between China (December 2010) and the United States (May 2013). The finding that the emergent U.S. PEDV strains share unique genetic features at the 5'-untranslated region with a bat coronavirus provided further support of the evolutionary origin of PEDV from bats and potential cross-species transmission. The data from this study have important implications for understanding the ongoing PEDV outbreaks in the United States and will guide future efforts to develop effective preventive and control measures against PEDV. IMPORTANCE:The sudden emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a coronavirus, for the first time in the United States causes significant economic and public health concerns. Since its recognition in May 2013, PEDV has rapidly spread across the United States, resulting in high mortality in piglets in more than 17 States now. The ongoing outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in humans from countries in or near the Arabian Peninsula and the historical deadly nature of the 2002 outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus create further anxiety over the emergence of PEDV in the United States due to the lack of scientific information about the origin and evolution of this emerging coronavirus. Here we report the detailed genetic characterization, origin, and evolution of emergent PEDV strains in the United States. The results provide much needed information to devise effective preventive and control strategies against PEDV in the United States.

Project description:The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.

Dataset Information

U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains.

Publications

U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains.

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