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Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

ABSTRACT: Models for the diversity and evolution of pathogens have branched into two main directions: the adaptive dynamics of quantitative life-history traits (notably virulence) and the maintenance and invasion of multiple, antigenically diverse strains that interact with the host's immune memory. In a first attempt to reconcile these two approaches, we developed a simple modelling framework where two strains of pathogens, defined by a pair of life-history traits (infectious period and infectivity), interfere through a given level of cross-immunity. We used whooping cough as a potential example, but the framework proposed here could be applied to other acute infectious diseases. Specifically, we analysed the effects of these parameters on the invasion dynamics of one strain into a population, where the second strain is endemic. Whereas the deterministic version of the model converges towards stable coexistence of the two strains in most cases, stochastic simulations showed that transient epidemic dynamics can cause the extinction of either strain. Thus ecological dynamics, modulated by the immune parameters, eventually determine the adaptive value of different pathogen genotypes. We advocate an integrative view of pathogen dynamics at the crossroads of immunology, epidemiology and evolution, as a way towards efficient control of infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Restif O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1560197 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

Restif Olivier O Grenfell Bryan T BT

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20060201 1585

Models for the diversity and evolution of pathogens have branched into two main directions: the adaptive dynamics of quantitative life-history traits (notably virulence) and the maintenance and invasion of multiple, antigenically diverse strains that interact with the host's immune memory. In a first attempt to reconcile these two approaches, we developed a simple modelling framework where two strains of pathogens, defined by a pair of life-history traits (infectious period and infectivity), int ...[more]

PMID: 16615206

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Project description:Humans profoundly impact landscapes, ecosystems, and animal behavior. In many cases, animals living near humans become tolerant of them and reduce antipredator responses. Yet, we still lack an understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics behind these shifts in traits that affect animal survival. Here, we used a phylogenetic meta-analysis to determine how the mean and variability in antipredator responses change as a function of the number of generations spent in contact with humans under 3 different contexts: urbanization, captivity, and domestication. We found that any contact with humans leads to a rapid reduction in mean antipredator responses as expected. Notably, the variance among individuals over time observed a short-term increase followed by a gradual decrease, significant for domesticated animals. This implies that intense human contact immediately releases animals from predation pressure and then imposes strong anthropogenic selection on traits. In addition, our results reveal that the loss of antipredator traits due to urbanization is similar to that of domestication but occurs 3 times more slowly. Furthermore, the rapid disappearance of antipredator traits was associated with 2 main life-history traits: foraging guild and whether the species was solitary or gregarious (i.e., group-living). For domesticated animals, this decrease in antipredator behavior was stronger for herbivores than for omnivores or carnivores and for solitary than for gregarious species. By contrast, the decrease in antipredator traits was stronger for gregarious, urbanized species, although this result is based mostly on birds. Our study offers 2 major insights on evolution in the Anthropocene: (1) changes in traits occur rapidly even under unintentional human "interventions" (i.e., urbanization) and (2) there are similarities between the selection pressures exerted by domestication and by urbanization. In all, such changes could affect animal survival in a predator-rich world, but through understanding evolutionary dynamics, we can better predict when and how exposure to humans modify these fitness-related traits.

Project description:BackgroundHepatitis E virus (HEV) is an enterically transmitted hepatropic virus. It segregates as four genotypes. All genotypes infect humans while only genotypes 3 and 4 also infect several animal species. It has been suggested that hepatitis E is zoonotic, but no study has analyzed the evolutionary history of HEV. We present here an analysis of the evolutionary history of HEV.Methods and findingsThe times to the most recent common ancestors for all four genotypes of HEV were calculated using BEAST to conduct a Bayesian analysis of HEV. The population dynamics for genotypes 1, 3 and 4 were analyzed using skyline plots. Bayesian analysis showed that the most recent common ancestor for modern HEV existed between 536 and 1344 years ago. The progenitor of HEV appears to have given rise to anthropotropic and enzootic forms of HEV, which evolved into genotypes 1 and 2 and genotypes 3 and 4, respectively. Population dynamics suggest that genotypes 1, 3 and 4 experienced a population expansion during the 20(th) century. Genotype 1 has increased in infected population size ∼30-35 years ago. Genotype 3 and 4 have experienced an increase in population size starting late in the 19(th) century until ca.1940-45, with genotype 3 having undergone additional rapid expansion until ca.1960. The effective population size for both genotype 3 and 4 rapidly declined to pre-expansion levels starting in ca.1990. Genotype 4 was further examined as Chinese and Japanese sequences, which exhibited different population dynamics, suggesting that this genotype experienced different evolutionary history in these two countries.ConclusionsHEV appears to have evolved through a series of steps, in which the ancestors of HEV may have adapted to a succession of animal hosts leading to humans. Analysis of the population dynamics of HEV suggests a substantial temporal variation in the rate of transmission among HEV genotypes in different geographic regions late in the 20(th) Century.

Dataset Information

Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

Publications

Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

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