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Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Stochastic simulations of network models have become the standard approach to studying epidemics. We show that many of the predictions of these models can also be obtained from simple classical deterministic compartmental models. We suggest that simple models may be a better way to plan for a threatening pandemic with location and parameters as yet unknown, reserving more detailed network models for disease outbreaks already underway in localities where the social networks are well identified.We formulate compartmental models to describe outbreaks of influenza and attempt to manage a disease outbreak by vaccination or antiviral treatment. The models give an important prediction that may not have been noticed in other models, namely that the number of doses of antiviral treatment required is extremely sensitive to the number of initial infectives. This suggests that the actual number of doses needed cannot be estimated with any degree of reliability. The model is applicable to pre-epidemic vaccination, such as annual vaccination programs in anticipation of an 'ordinary' influenza outbreak with limited drift, and as a combination of treatment both before and during an epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Arino J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1578753 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

Arino Julien J Brauer Fred F van den Driessche P P Watmough James J Wu Jianhong J

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20060601 8

Stochastic simulations of network models have become the standard approach to studying epidemics. We show that many of the predictions of these models can also be obtained from simple classical deterministic compartmental models. We suggest that simple models may be a better way to plan for a threatening pandemic with location and parameters as yet unknown, reserving more detailed network models for disease outbreaks already underway in localities where the social networks are well identified.We ...[more]

PMID: 16849273

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Project description:BackgroundThe highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel.Methods and findingsWe studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies). In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide.ConclusionsWe show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.

Project description:BackgroundEffective strategies of prevention have been and can aid in reducing and overcoming contagious diseases including COVID-19, still there is dearth of knowledge regarding general public awareness and perception. The current study aims to determine the existing knowledge and perception of people living in Karachi about isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment.MethodsThis cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the months of March and April 2020. The study included men and women of age 18 years and above quarantined during COVID-19. Convenience sampling followed by snowball sampling technique was used. An online structured questionnaire was developed using Google Form. It included questions on socio demographic information, public knowledge and perception about isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment. Chi-square test was used for categorical variables and p value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 548 participants were involved in this survey, 34% (n = 184) males with a mean age of 28 ± 10 years ranging from 18 to 75 years. The major source of hearing about COVID-19 was social media (72%, n = 393). Overall knowledge scores revealed that 27% (n = 146) participants had excellent knowledge about symptoms and prevention of the COVID-19. Excellent knowledge of quarantining, isolation and community containment and social distancing was 38% among participants. Participants who had good and excellent knowledge were more likely to have positive perception of isolation (p-value < 0.001). Majority participants (89%, n = 487) felt isolation may or may not be against human rights and this perception was found significantly associated with moderate to excellent knowledge about community mitigation measures (p-value = 0.009).ConclusionThis study concludes that optimal public knowledge and perception related to certain aspects of isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment exists however knowledge gaps and misperceptions prevail that need to be addressed.

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Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

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Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

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