Dataset Information

Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour.

Methods

A mathematical model was developed to explore the relation between prevalence recorded at antenatal clinics (ANCs) and the pattern of incidence of infection throughout the population. To create a null model a range of assumptions about sexual behaviour, natural history of infection, and sampling biases in ANC populations were explored to determine which factors maximised declines in prevalence in the absence of behaviour change. Modelled prevalence, where possible based on locally collected behavioural data, was compared with the observed prevalence data in urban Haiti, urban Kenya, urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Uganda, and urban Ethiopia.

Results

Recent downturns in prevalence observed in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti, like Uganda before them, could only be replicated in the model through reductions in risk associated with changes in behaviour. In contrast, prevalence trends in urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, urban Ethiopia, and Rwanda show no signs of changed sexual behaviour.

Conclusions

Changes in patterns of HIV prevalence in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti are quite recent and caution is required because of doubts over the accuracy and representativeness of these estimates. Nonetheless, the observed changes are consistent with behaviour change and not the natural course of the HIV epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Hallett TB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1693572 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Young female sex-workers (FSW) aged 18-24 are at high risk of HIV due to high numbers of sexual partners, difficulty negotiating condom use, increased risk of gender-based violence, and limited access to services. Here we describe changes in sexual behaviours among young FSW across Zimbabwe between 2013 and 2016, and risk factors for prevalent HIV in 2013 and 2016. FSW ≥ 18 years were recruited using respondent-driven sampling in 14 sites across Zimbabwe in 2013 and 2016 as part of the SAPPH-IRe trial. We collected data on socio-demographics and sexual behaviour and offered HIV testing. Statistical analyses were RDS-II weighted. Characteristics of young FSW aged 18-24 were described, stratified by age. Logistic regression was used to assess difference in sexual behaviours by reported HIV status between 2013 and 2016, and to explore associations with prevalent HIV in 2013 and 2016. 656 young FSW were recruited in 2013 and 503 in 2016. Characteristics of young FSW were similar across both surveys. HIV prevalence was similar at both time points (35% vs 36%) and rose steeply with age. Compared to young FSW in 2013, reported condom-less sex with a steady partner and condom-less sex with clients was higher in 2016 among women self-reporting HIV negative status (OR = 6.41; 95%CI: 3.40-12.09; P<0.001) and (OR = 1.69; 95%CI: 1.14-2.51, P = 0.008), respectively, but not among young FSW self-reporting HIV positive status (OR = 2.35; 95%CI: 0.57-9.76; P = 0.236) and (OR = 1.87; 95%CI: 0.74-4.74; P = 0.186). After adjusting for age in 2016, young FSW who had ever been married had increased odds of testing HIV positive (OR = 1.88; 95% CI 1.04-3.39; P = 0.036) compared with those who had never married. Young FSW who completed secondary education or higher were less likely to test HIV positive (OR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.20-0.83; P = 0.012) compared with those with primary education or less. Young FSW remain at very high risk of HIV. Strategies to identify young FSW when they first start selling and refer them into services that address their economic, social and sexual vulnerabilities are critical.

Project description:Background: Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR) investments are critical to people's well-being. However, despite the demonstrated returns on investments, underfunding of SRHR still persists. The objective of this study was to characterize donor commitments and disbursements to SRH aid in four sub-Saharan countries of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia and to compare trends in donor aids with SRH outcome and impact indicators for each of these countries. Methods: The study is a secondary analysis of data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Assistance creditor reporting system and SRH indicator data from the Global Health Observatory and country demographic health surveys for a 16-year period (2002-2017). We downloaded and compared commitments to disbursements of all donors for population policies, programs and reproductive health for the four African countries. SRH indicators were stratified into health facility level process/outcome indicators (modern contraceptive prevalence rate, unmet need for family planning, antenatal care coverage and skilled birth attendance) and health impact level indicators (maternal mortality ratio, newborn mortality rate, infant mortality rate and under five mortality rate). Results: Donor commitments for SRH aid grew on average by 20% while disbursements grew by 21% annually between 2002 and 2017. The overall disbursement rate was 93%. Development Assistance Cooperation (DAC) countries donated the largest proportion (79%) of aid. Kenya took 33% of total aid, followed by Tanzania 26%, Uganda 23% and then Zambia (18%). There was improvement in all SRH outcome and impact indicators, but not enough to meet targets. Conclusion: Donor aid to SRH grew over time and in the same period indicators improved, but improvement remained slow. Unpredictability and insufficiency of aid may be disruptive to recipient country planning. Donors and low- and middle-income countries should increase funding in order to meet global SRHR targets.

Project description:BackgroundWe determined prevalence of pertussis infection and its associated host and environmental factors to generate information that would guide strategies for disease control.MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, 449 children aged 3 months to 12 years with persistent cough lasting ?14 days were enrolled and evaluated for pertussis using DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and ELISA serology tests.ResultsPertussis prevalence was 67 (15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 12-18)) and 81 (20% (95% CI: 16-24)) by PCR and ELISA, respectively among 449 participating children. The prevalence was highest in children with >59 months of age despite high vaccination coverage of 94% in this age group. Study demographic and clinical characteristics were similar between pertussis and non-pertussis cases. Of the 449 children, 133 (30%) had a coughing household member and 316 (70%) did not. Among 133 children that had a coughing household member, sex of child, sharing bed with a coughing household member and having a coughing individual in the neighborhood were factors associated with pertussis. Children that had shared a bed with a coughing household individual had seven-fold likelihood of having pertussis compared to children that did not (odds ratio (OR) 7.16 (95% CI: 1.24-41.44)). Among the 316 children that did not have a coughing household member, age <23 months, having or contact with a coughing individual in neighborhood, a residence with one room, and having a caretaker with >40 years of age were the factors associated with pertussis. Age <23months was three times more likely to be associated with pertussis compared to age 24-59 months (OR 2.97 (95% CI: 1.07-8.28)).ConclusionFindings suggest high prevalence of pertussis among children with persistent cough at a health facility and it was marked in children >59 months of age, suggesting the possibility of waning immunity. The factors associated with pertussis varied by presence or absence of a coughing household member.

Project description:BackgroundPhysical activity (PA) is associated with numerous health benefits among children and youth. However, few studies have examined how active transportation (AT) and device-based measures of PA vary within and between countries in sub-Saharan Africa.PurposeThis cross-sectional study sought to investigate the prevalence and correlates of AT and device-measured PA among children living in urban, peri-urban and rural areas in three African countries representing Eastern, Western and Southern regions of Africa.Methods3,205 participants (53.3% girls; 46.7% boys) aged 10-12 years were recruited in Kenya, Nigeria and Mozambique. Data were collected using a child questionnaire, a parent/guardian questionnaire and PiezoRx® pedometers. ANCOVA and binary logistic regression analyses were used to examine the correlates of AT and PA while controlling for gender, age, parent education and vehicle ownership.ResultsParticipants accumulated an average of 45.6±23.5 min/day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and 11,215±4,273 steps/day. Kenyan and Mozambican children were significantly more active than their Nigerian counterparts (p<0.001). Only 23% met the MVPA guidelines of 60 min/day. 65.1% of participants engaged in AT to school (and 67.8% for the trip back home) with no gender differences. Living in a rural area, lower parent education, lower vehicle ownership and higher motorcycle ownership were associated with higher odds of AT. Other correlates of AT were country-specific. Girls accumulated less daily MVPA than boys in all countries. MVPA was positively associated with living in less urbanized areas in Nigeria and Mozambique. In Kenya, lower parental education and AT were associated with higher MVPA. Nigerian children's daily MVPA decreased with age and the number of parent-perceived barriers to AT.ConclusionsMajority of children engaged in AT, but still failed to meet MVPA recommendations. Most correlates of AT and PA were country-specific, suggesting that strategies to encourage both behaviours should be informed by local evidence.