Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000.
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SUBMITTER: Ezzati M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC1759096 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundStillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time.MethodsFor a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate country-specific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years.FindingsGlobally in 2019, an estimated 2·0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·9-2·2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13·9 stillbirths (90% UI 13·5-15·4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22·8 stillbirths (19·8-27·7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2·9 (2·7-3·0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2·3% (90% UI 1·7-2·7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2·9% (2·5-3·2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4·3% (3·8-4·7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50·0%, 28 having a decrease of 25·0-49·9%, 50 having a decrease of 10·0-24·9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10·0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean.InterpretationProgress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
| S-EPMC8417352 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe increasing numbers of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have near normal life-expectancy, resulting in more people living with HIV over the age of 50 years (PLHIV50+). Estimates of the number of PLHIV50+ are needed for the development of tailored therapeutic and prevention interventions at country, regional and global level.MethodsThe AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum software was used to compute the numbers of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS-related deaths for PLHIV50+ for the years 2000-2016. Projections until 2020 were calculated based on an assumed ART scale-up to 81% coverage by 2020, consistent with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets.ResultsGlobally, there were 5.7 million [4.7 million- 6.6 million] PLHIV50+ in 2016. The proportion of PLHIV50+ increased substantially from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2016 and is expected to increase to 21% by 2020. In 2016, 80% of PLHIV50+ lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with Eastern and Southern Africa containing the largest number of PLHIV50+. While the proportion of PLHIV50+ was greater in high income countries, LMICs have higher numbers of PLHIV50+ that are expected to continue to increase by 2020.ConclusionsThe number of PLHIV50+ has increased dramatically since 2000 and this is expected to continue by 2020, especially in LMICs. HIV prevention campaigns, testing and treatment programs should also focus on the specific needs of PLHIV50+. Integrated health and social services should be developed to cater for the changing physical, psychological and social needs of PLHIV50+, many of whom will need to use HIV and non-HIV services.
| S-EPMC6264840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Insufficient quantities and inadequate quality of complementary foods, together with poor feeding practices, pose a threat to children's health and nutrition. Interventions to improve complementary feeding are critical to reduce all forms of malnutrition, and access to data to ascertain the status of complementary feeding practices is essential for efforts to improve feeding behaviours. However, sufficient data to generate estimates for the core indicators covering the complementary feeding period only became available recently. The current situation of complementary feeding at the global and regional level is reported here using data contained within the UNICEF global database. Global rates of continued breastfeeding drop from 74.0% at 1 year of age to 46.3% at 2 years of age. Nearly a third of infants 4-5 months old are already fed solid foods, whereas nearly 20% of 10-11 months old had not consumed solid foods during the day prior to their survey. Of particular concern is the low rate (28.2%) of children 6-23 months receiving at least a minimally diverse diet. Although rates for all indicators vary by background characteristics, feeding behaviours are suboptimal even in richest households, suggesting that cultural factors and poor knowledge regarding an adequate diet for young children are important to address. In summary, far too few children are benefitting from minimum complementary feeding practices. Efforts are needed not only to improve children's diets for their survival, growth, and development but also for governments to report on progress against global infant and young child feeding indicators on a regular basis.
| S-EPMC6865887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo describe injection practices worldwide in terms of frequency and safety.DesignLiterature review. The global burden of disease project of the World Health Organization defined 14 regions on the basis of geography and mortality patterns. Data sources included published studies and unpublished WHO reports. Studies were reviewed by using a standardised decision making algorithm to generate region specific estimates.SettingHealthcare facilities, both formal and informal.Data sourcesGeneral population and users of healthcare facilities.Main outcome measureAnnual number of injections per person and proportion of injections administered with syringes or needles, or both, reused in the absence of sterilisation.ResultsThe analysis excluded four regions (predominantly affluent, developed nations) where reuse of injection equipment in the absence of sterilisation was assumed to be negligible. In the 10 other regions, the annual ratio of injections per person ranged from 1.7 to 11.3. Of these, the proportion administered with equipment reused in the absence of sterilisation ranged from 1.2% to 75.0%. Reuse was highest in the South East Asia region "D" (seven countries, mostly located in South Asia), the eastern Mediterranean region "D" (nine countries, mostly located in the Middle East crescent), and the western Pacific region "B" (22 countries). No information regarding injection safety was available for Latin America.ConclusionsOveruse of injections and unsafe practices are still common in developing and transitional countries. An urgent need exists to use injections safely and appropriately, to prevent healthcare associated infections with HIV and other bloodborne pathogens.
| S-EPMC261740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGlobal child mortality reduced substantially during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15). We aimed to estimate morbidity, mortality, and prevalence of risk factors for child pneumonia at the global, regional, and national level for developing countries for the Millennium Development Goal period.MethodsWe estimated the incidence, number of hospital admissions, and in-hospital mortality due to all-cause clinical pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in developing countries at 5-year intervals during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15) using data from a systematic review and Poisson regression. We estimated the incidence and number of cases of clinical pneumonia, and the pneumonia burden attributable to HIV for 132 developing countries using a risk-factor-based model that used Demographic and Health Survey data on prevalence of the various risk factors for child pneumonia. We also estimated pneumonia mortality in young children using data from multicause models based on vital registration and verbal autopsy.FindingsGlobally, the number of episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children decreased by 22% from 178 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 110-289) in 2000 to 138 million (86-226) in 2015. In 2015, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, and China contributed to more than 54% of all global pneumonia cases, with 32% of the global burden from India alone. Between 2000 and 2015, the burden of clinical pneumonia attributable to HIV decreased by 45%. Between 2000 and 2015, global hospital admissions for child pneumonia increased by 2·9 times with a more rapid increase observed in the WHO South-East Asia Region than the African Region. Pneumonia deaths in this age group decreased from 1·7 million (95% UI 1·7-2·0) in 2000 to 0·9 million (0·8-1·1) in 2015. In 2015, 49% of global pneumonia deaths occurred in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia collectively. All key risk factors for child pneumonia (non-exclusive breastfeeding, crowding, malnutrition, indoor air pollution, incomplete immunisation, and paediatric HIV), with the exception of low birthweight, decreased across all regions between 2000 and 2015.InterpretationGlobally, the incidence of child pneumonia decreased by 30% and mortality decreased by 51% during the Millennium Development Goal period. These reductions are consistent with the decrease in the prevalence of some of the key risk factors for pneumonia, increasing socioeconomic development and preventive interventions, improved access to care, and quality of care in hospitals. However, intersectoral action is required to improve socioeconomic conditions and increase coverage of interventions targeting risk factors for child pneumonia to accelerate decline in pneumonia mortality and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for health by 2030.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6293057 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionFemale sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.MethodsPopulation attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.ResultsAn estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.DiscussionFemale sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.ConclusionFSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.
| S-EPMC3662690 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA growing literature has documented the high global morbidity, mortality and mental health burden associated with the current Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper, we aimed to quantify the total utility and quality of life loss resulting from Covid-19-related government restrictions imposed at the national, regional and global levels.MethodsWe conducted quality of life online surveys in France, India, Italy, UK and the United States of America between June 21st and September 13th 2021, and used regression models to estimate the average quality of life loss due to light and severe restrictions in these countries. We then combined estimated disutility weights from the pooled sample with the latest data on Covid-19 restrictions exposure in each country to estimate the total disutility generated by restrictions at the national, regional and global level. We also embedded a discrete choice experiment (DCE) into the online survey to estimate average willingness to pay to avoid specific restrictions.FindingsA total of 947 surveys were completed. Thirty-five percent of respondents were female, and 69.5% were between 18 and 39 years old. The weighted average utility weight was 0.71 (95% CIs 0.69-0.74) for light restrictions, and 0.65 (0.63-0.68) for severe restrictions. At the global scale, this implies a total loss of 3259 million QALYs (95% 3021, 3496) as of September 6th, 2021, with the highest burden in lower and upper middle-income countries. Utility losses appear to be particularly large for closures of schools and daycares as well as restaurants and bars, and seem relatively small for wearing masks and travel restrictions.InterpretationThe results presented here suggest that the QALY losses due to restrictions are substantial. Future mitigation strategies should try to balance potential reductions in disease transmission achievable through specific measures against their respective impact on quality of life. Additional research is needed to determine differences in restriction-specific disutilities across countries, and to determine optimal policy responses to similar future disease threats.FundingNo funding was received for this project.
| S-EPMC8856030 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.
| S-EPMC9579140 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine are now used in most countries. To monitor global and regional progress towards improving child health and to inform national policies for disease prevention and treatment, we prepared global, regional, and national disease burden estimates for these pathogens in children from 2000 to 2015.MethodsUsing WHO and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration country-specific estimates of pneumonia and meningitis mortality and pneumonia morbidity from 2000 to 2015, we applied pneumococcal and Hib cause-specific proportions to estimate pathogen-specific deaths and cases. Summary estimates of the proportion of pneumonia deaths and cases attributable to these pathogens were derived from four Hib vaccine and six PCV efficacy and effectiveness study values. The proportion of meningitis deaths due to each pathogen was derived from bacterial meningitis aetiology and adjusted pathogen-specific meningitis case-fatality data. Pneumococcal and Hib meningitis cases were inferred from modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and literature-derived case-fatality estimates. Cases of pneumococcal and Hib syndromes other than pneumonia and meningitis were estimated using the ratio of pathogen-specific non-pneumonia, non-meningitis cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases from the literature. We accounted for annual HIV infection prevalence, access to care, and vaccine use.FindingsWe estimated that there were 294 000 pneumococcal deaths (uncertainty range [UR] 192 000-366 000) and 29 500 Hib deaths (18 400-40 700) in HIV-uninfected children aged 1-59 months in 2015. An additional 23 300 deaths (15 300-28 700) associated with pneumococcus and fewer than 1000 deaths associated Hib were estimated to have occurred in children infected with HIV. We estimate that pneumococcal deaths declined by 51% (7-74) and Hib deaths by 90% (78-96) from 2000 to 2015. Most children who died of pneumococcus (81%) and Hib (76%) presented with pneumonia. Less conservative assumptions result in pneumococcccal death estimates that could be as high as 515 000 deaths (302 000-609 000) in 2015. Approximately 50% of all pneumococcal deaths in 2015 occurred in four countries in Africa and Asia: India (68 700 deaths, UR 44 600-86 100), Nigeria (49 000 deaths, 32 400-59 000), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (14 500 deaths, 9300-18 700), and Pakistan (14 400 deaths, 9700-17 000]). India (15 600 deaths, 9800-21 500), Nigeria (3600 deaths, 2200-5100), China (3400 deaths, 2300-4600), and South Sudan (1000 deaths, 600-1400) had the greatest number of Hib deaths in 2015. We estimated 3·7 million episodes (UR 2·7 million-4·3 million) of severe pneumococcus and 340 000 episodes (196 000-669 000) of severe Hib globally in children in 2015.InterpretationThe widespread use of Hib vaccine and the recent introduction of PCV in countries with high child mortality is associated with reductions in Hib and pneumococcal cases and deaths. Uncertainties in the burden of pneumococcal disease are largely driven by the fraction of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus. Progress towards further reducing the global burden of Hib and pneumococcal disease burden will depend on the efforts of a few large countries in Africa and Asia.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6005122 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis is associated with increased risk of cancer. However, the impact of tuberculosis on global cancer burden is unknown.MethodsWe performed random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of studies reporting the association between tuberculosis and cancer risks by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane library, and CINAHL from inception to 1 June 2019. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancer incidence attributable to tuberculosis were calculated using relative risks from our meta-analyses and tuberculosis prevalence data from Global Health Data Exchange by age, sex, and country. The study has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016050691).ResultsFourty nine studies with 52,480 cancer cases met pre-specified inclusion criteria. Tuberculosis was associated with head and neck cancer (RR 2.64[95% CI 2.00-3.48]), hepatobiliary cancer (2.43[1.82-3.25]), Hodgkin's lymphoma (2.19[1.62-2.97]), lung cancer (1.69[1.46-1.95]), gastrointestinal cancer (1.62[1.26-2.08]), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.61[1.34-1.94]), pancreatic cancer (1.58[1.28-1.96]), leukaemia (1.55[1.25-1.93]), kidney and bladder cancer (1.54[1.21-1.97]), and ovarian cancer (1.43[1.04-1.97]). We estimated that 2.33%(1.14-3.81) or 381,035(187145-623,404) of global cancer incidences in 2015 were attributable to tuberculosis. The PAFs varied by Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-ranging from 1.28% (0.57-2.31%) in the high-SDI countries to 3.51% (1.84-5.42%) in the middle-SDI countries. Individually, China and India accounted for 47% of all tuberculosis-related cancer cases.ConclusionsTuberculosis is associated with increased risk of cancer at ten sites. The burden of tuberculosis attributable cancer skewed towards lower resource countries. Research priorities are to better understand regional disparities and underlying mechanism linking tuberculosis and cancer development.
| S-EPMC7218646 | biostudies-literature