Project description:AimsAssessment of ECG-features as predictors of sudden death in adults with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM).Methods and resultsECG-amplitude sums were measured in 44 normals, 34 athletes, a hospital-cohort of 87 HCM-patients, and 29 HCM-patients with sudden death or cardiac arrest (HCM-CA). HCM-patients with sudden death or cardiac arrest had substantially higher ECG-amplitudes than the HCM-cohort for limb-lead and 12-lead QRS-amplitude sums, and amplitude-duration products (P = 0.00003-P = 0.000002). Separation of HCM-CA from the HCM-cohort is obtained by limb-lead QRS-amplitude sum >or=7.7 mV (odds ratio 18.8, sensitivity 87%, negative predictive value (NPV) 94%, P < 0.0001), 12-lead amplitude-duration product >or=2.2 mV s (odds ratio 31.0, sensitivity 92%, NPV 97%, P < 0.0001), and limb-lead amplitude-duration product >or=0.70 mV s (odds ratio 31.5, sensitivity 93%, NPV 96%, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity in HCM-patients <40 years is 90, 100, and 100% for those ECG-variables, respectively. Qualitative analysis showed correlation with cardiac arrest for pathological T-wave-inversion (P = 0.0003), ST-depression (P = 0.0010), and dominant S-wave in V(4) (P = 0.0048). A risk score is proposed; a score >or=6 gives a sensitivity of 85% but a higher positive predictive value than above measures. Optimal separation between HCM-CA <40 years and athletes is obtained by a risk score >or=6 (odds ratio 345, sensitivity 85%, specificity 100%, P < 0.0001).ConclusionTwelve-lead ECG is a powerful instrument for risk-stratification in HCM.
Project description:BackgroundLeft atrial diameter (LAd) is included in the European Society for Cardiology's (ESC) risk model for assessment of sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the recommended measure of LA size is left atrial volume (LAv).HypothesisWe hypothesized that LAv could be used instead of LAd in the HCM risk-SCD model. We aimed to determine the relation between LAd and LAv and to assess the impact of using LAv instead of LAd.MethodsEchocardiographic measurements of anteroposterior LAd in the parasternal long-axis window and LAv from Simpson's biplane method of disks were used. The 5-year risk of SCD by measured LAd and by LAd predicted from LAv were estimated using the ESC risk-SCD model.ResultsIn 205 HCM patients (age 56 ± 14 years, 62% male), the relation between LAd and LAv was linear. Median 5-year risk of SCD was 2.4% (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.6; 3.8) using measured LAd and 2.4% (IQR: 1.6; 3.7) using predicted LAd. The correlation between the SCD risk assessed by measured vs predicted LAd was excellent (r2 = 0.96). Use of predicted LAd resulted in four patients (2%) being recategorized between the moderate and high-risk categories.ConclusionsThe relation between LAd and LAv was linear with good agreement. On a population level, the correlation between the risk of SCD using measured LAd or LAd predicted from LAv was excellent. On a patient level, using LAd predicted from LAv resulted in the vast majority remaining in the same risk category; however, for a minority of patients, it changed the recommendation.
Project description:AIMS:Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common cause of death in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends consideration of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) if two or more clinical risk factors (RFs) are present, but this approach to risk stratification has not been formally validated. METHODS AND RESULTS:Four hundred and eleven paediatric HCM patients were assessed for four clinical RFs in accordance with current ESC recommendations: severe left ventricular hypertrophy, unexplained syncope, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and family history of SCD. The primary endpoint was a composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate ICD therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia), defined as a major arrhythmic cardiac event (MACE). Over a follow-up period of 2890 patient years (median 5.5?years), MACE occurred in 21 patients (7.5%) with 0 RFs, 19 (16.8%) with 1 RFs, and 3 (18.8%) with 2 or more RFs. Corresponding incidence rates were 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7-1.73], 2.07 (95% CI 1.25-3.23), and 2.52 (95% CI 0.53-7.35) per 100 patient years at risk. Patients with two or more RFs did not have a higher incidence of MACE (log-rank test P?=?0.34), with a positive and negative predictive value of 19% and 90%, respectively. The C-statistic was 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.72) at 5?years. CONCLUSIONS:The incidence of MACE is higher for patients with increasing numbers of clinical RFs. However, the current ESC guidelines have a low ability to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals.
Project description:Arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) may be caused by ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation or pulseless electric activity/asystole. Effective risk stratification to identify patients at risk of arrhythmic SCD is essential for targeting our healthcare and research resources to tackle this important public health issue. Although our understanding of SCD because of pulseless electric activity/asystole is growing, the overwhelming majority of research in risk stratification has focused on SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. This review focuses on existing and novel risk stratification tools for SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. For patients with left ventricular dysfunction or myocardial infarction, advances in imaging, measures of cardiac autonomic function, and measures of repolarization have shown considerable promise in refining risk. Yet the majority of SCD-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation occurs in patients without known cardiac disease. Biomarkers and novel imaging techniques may provide further risk stratification in the general population beyond traditional risk stratification for coronary artery disease alone. Despite these advances, significant challenges in risk stratification remain that must be overcome before a meaningful impact on SCD can be realized.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies. METHODS:In an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285). RESULTS:Overall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic models were developed to predict 5-year freedom from SCD. Both models adequately discriminated between patients with and without SCD events with a c-statistic of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively, and demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events in the primary and validation cohorts (validation c-statistic 0.71 and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSION:Our study provides a validated SCD risk prediction model with >70% prediction accuracy and incorporates risk factors that are unique to pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. An individualized risk prediction model has the potential to improve the application of clinical practice guidelines and shared decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT0403679.
Project description:In hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients, left ventricular (LV) maximal wall thickness (MWT) is one of the most important factors determining sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk. In a large unselected sample of HCM patients, we aimed to simulate what changes would occur in the calculated SCD risk according to the European HCM Risk-SCD calculator when MWT measured using echocardiography was changed to MWT measured using MRI. All consecutive patients with HCM who underwent cardiac MRI were included. MWT measured with echocardiography and MRI were compared, and 5-year SCD risk according to the HCM Risk-SCD calculator was computed using four different models. The final population included 673 patients [389 (57.8%) males, median age 50 years, interquartile range (36-60)]. The median MWT was lower measured by echocardiography than by MRI [20 (17-24) mm vs 21 (18-24) mm; p < 0.0001]. There was agreement between echocardiography and MRI in the measurement of maximal LV wall thickness in 96 patients (14.3%). The largest differences between echo and MRI were - 13 mm and + 9 mm. The differences in MWT by echocardiography and MRI translated to a maximal difference of 8.33% in the absolute 5-year risk of SCD, i.e., the echocardiography-based risk was 8.33% lower than the MRI-based estimates. Interestingly, 13.7% of patients would have been reclassified into different SCD risk categories if MRI had been used to measure MWT instead of echocardiography. In conclusion, although there was high general intermodality agreement between echocardiography and MRI in the MWT measurements, the differences in MWT translated to significant differences in the 5-year risk of SCD.
Project description:In search of improved risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), CMR imaging has been implicated as a potential tool for prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD). In follow-up of the promising results with extensive late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), high signal-intensity on T2-weighted imaging (HighT2) has become subject of interest given its association with markers of adverse disease progression, such as LGE, elevated troponin and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. In lack of follow-up cohorts, we initiated an exploratory study on the association between HighT2 and the internationally defined risk categories of SCD. In a cohort of 109 HCM patients from a multicenter study on CMR imaging and biomarkers, we estimated the 5-year SCD risk (HCM Risk-SCD model). Patients were categorized as low (<?4%), intermediate (??4-<6%) or high (??6%) risk. In addition, risk categorization according to the ACC/AHA guidelines was performed. HighT2 was present in 27% (29/109). Patients with HighT2 were more often at an intermediate-high risk of SCD according to the European (28 vs. 10%, p?=?.032) and American guidelines (41 vs. 18%, p?=?.010) compared to those without HighT2. The estimated 5-year SCD risk of our cohort was 1.9% (IQR 1.3-2.9%), and projected SCD rates were higher in patients with than without HighT2 (2.8 vs. 1.8%, p?=?.002). In conclusion, HCM patients with HighT2 were more likely to be intermediate-high risk, with projected SCD rates that were 1.5 fold higher than in patients without HighT2. These pilot findings call for corroborative studies with more intermediate-high risk HCM patients and clinical follow-up to assess whether HighT2 may have additional value to current risk stratification.
Project description:In hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, multimodality imaging is crucial to confirm diagnosis, assess for presence and mechanism of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death. This review will focus on the application of imaging to assess established and emerging factors to be considered in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.
Project description:Importance:Strategies for reliable selection of high-risk patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) for prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) with implantable cardioverter/defibrillators (ICDs) are incompletely resolved. Objective:To assess the reliability of SCD prediction methods leading to prophylactic ICD recommendations to reduce the number of SCDs occurring in patients with HCM. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this observational longitudinal study, 2094 predominantly adult patients with HCM consecutively evaluated over 17 years in a large HCM clinical center were studied. All patients underwent prospective ICD decision making relying on individual major risk markers derived from the HCM literature and an enhanced American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines-based risk factor algorithm with complete clinical outcome follow-up. Data were collected from June 2017 to February 2018, and data were analyzed from February to July 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:Arrhythmic SCD or appropriate ICD intervention for ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. Results:Of the 2094 study patients, 1313 (62.7%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 51 (17) years. Of 527 patients with primary prevention ICDs implanted based on 1 or more major risk markers, 82 (15.6%) experienced device therapy-terminated ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation episodes, which exceeded the 5 HCM-related SCDs occurring among 1567 patients without ICDs (0.3%), including 2 who declined device therapy, by 49-fold (95% CI, 20-119; P = .001). Cumulative 5-year probability of an appropriate ICD intervention was 10.5% (95% CI, 8.0-13.5). The enhanced ACC/AHA clinical risk factor strategy was highly sensitive for predicting SCD events (range, 87%-95%) but less specific for identifying patients without SCD events (78%). The C statistic calculated for enhanced ACC/AHA guidelines was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85), demonstrating good discrimination between patients who did or did not experience an SCD event. Compared with enhanced ACC/AHA risk factors, the European Society of Cardiology risk score retrospectively applied to the study patients was much less sensitive than the ACC/AHA criteria (34% [95% CI, 22-44] vs 95% [95% CI, 89-99]), consistent with recognizing fewer high-risk patients. Conclusions and Relevance:A systematic enhanced ACC/AHA guideline and practice-based risk factor strategy prospectively predicted SCD events in nearly all at-risk patients with HCM, resulting in prophylactically implanted ICDs that prevented many catastrophic arrhythmic events in this at-risk population.